Edmonton Oilers: State Of The Franchise At The End Of The First Quarter

As expected, the Pacific division has shaken out a lot differently than at the start of the season.  Over the last couple of weeks, the division lead has see-sawed back and forth between the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames, of all teams.

However, the Flames’ current success is not sustainable over the course of the season. Why do I say this? One of their leading scorers – Andrew Mangiapane – possesses a 26.3% shooting %, which is way above his career average (not even Connor and Leon can do that).

The other big tell is PDO – one of the few advanced stats I like to use once in a while. PDO measures puck luck – lucky bounces, fortunate scoring angles, that sort of thing. Well as you can see here, the Flames are third in the league right now in PDO with a sky high 1.028 PDO.

This means they will come crashing down the standings at some point and will not be a threat to the division lead anymore. For the record, our Edmonton Oilers are right at the baseline of 1.000.

As I expected, Vegas and LA have gone on streaks and gone up the standings to overcome their poor starts, although Vegas more than LA. San Jose and Vancouver have come crashing back down to earth from their starts and predictably now look more like the teams they authentically are.

The only surprises in the division now are Calgary and Anaheim, both of whom have overcome slow starts to rocket up the standings. I thought LA would be the first rebuilding team to get in the playoffs this year, but notwithstanding the fact that there’s lots of season left, if current trends hold true Anaheim will make the playoffs in the last spot, not LA.

At this point, I’m not too concerned whether the Oilers win their division or not. Winning the division means nothing in the grand scheme of things. It holds no indication at all for playoff success – case in point, 2006 when the Oilers beat Detroit in the first round of the playoffs despite the fact the Red Wings were the President’s Trophy winners.

All they have to do is make the playoffs and then it’s on like a prawn who yawns at dawn.

Vegas is knocking on the door of a playoff spot – they’re only one point behind Anaheim for the last spot right now – so don’t count them out just yet despite all their injury issues. Even LA is only four points out of a playoff spot right now. We’ll see how things shake out at the halfway mark.

Anyway, when it comes to the players there’s been lots to write home about.

The McDavid and Draisaitl duo are still doing their thing, although Alex Ovechkin has now moved up the scoring race so Mcdavid is now “only” third in the league in scoring. Draisaitl in particular is killing it this season, with 20 goals and 40 points already in a mere 20 games. Not to mention a whopping +14. He might set records not seen in the NHL in a long time for points and goals in a season, despite the fact he’s publicly shrugging it off.

Draisait is worth the price of admission alone for watching the Oilers.

In between the last address and now the Oilers have been hit hard by the injury bug, as Mike Smith, Devin Shore, Darnell Nurse, Slater Koekkoek, and Duncan Keith are all injured – joining the guys we knew would be gone for the season in Oscar Klefbom, Josh Archibald, and Alex Stalock.

We just received word today that Cody Ceci has been placed in covid protocol. That’s three out of four starting top four D – ouch. Encouraging, though, is that before both players got injured, Keith and Ceci were both well on their way to meeting expectations for secondary offence, with Ceci putting up 1-5-6 in 20 games with a -3 to boot. Keith was 1-4-5 in 18 games with a -1. You’d like those +/- numbers to be better for guys with their experience, but nothing to worry about IMO. They’re already 25% away from what you’d like them to put up so I’m not concerned – right on target at this point.

Fortunately, the Oilers haven’t skipped a beat. Philip Broberg was called up to fill in for Duncan Keith, and he’s done so well that for the last two out of the four games he’s played Dave Tippett has been playing Broberg at just over 21 and 23 minutes per game, respectively.

That’s insane for a guy who’s getting his first shot at NHL hockey. Hasn’t produced much offence so far, only one assist in those four games, but I have to think he’s put himself in the conversation for third pairing left D for next season.

William Laggeson was called up to fill in for Koekkoek, and he hasn’t been knocking anyone’s socks off like Broberg but he hasn’t been drowning either. I have to wonder if he’s put himself in the running for a part-time bottom pairing guy for next year. He’s never produced much offence in his hockey career but could be a steady defensive presence on the club next season.

Markus Niemelainen will sub in for Ceci, and it remains to be seen how he does. I would assume Evan Bouchard – who has played in all three spots on the right side of the D this season – will move up to the second pairing while Niemelainen, another raw rookie making his NHL debut out of necessity rather than merit, will draw in on the third pairing starboard side.

Meanwhile, Skinner has been manning the pipes in Smith’s absence, and he’s done so well I don’t see how Holland at this point doesn’t consider him as the in-house replacement for Koskinen once his contract is up. Yes, I am well aware there is short sample size on all these players so I’m not gifting them anything. The salary cap implications of this move in particular, would be staggering, as the Oilers would essentially save $3.75 million in cap space without having to give up any assets, the GM’s sweet spot.

Injury has also opened things up for Ryan Mcleod, who was called up after Shore got injured, and at this point, he looks like a solid third-line centre who won’t let his roster spot go. He has three goals in 12 games already – and that’s great because he has a lot more offensive upside than Derek Ryan or Kyle Turris, his closest competition for that roster spot.

If he keeps this up he’ll have 21 goals by the end of the season, although he is riding a 33% shooting % so that’s probably not going to happen, but even so, if he can put up 15-20 points by season’s end I think the club will be very happy with him.

For now, until someone else shows signs of unseating him, he’s firmly planted in that spot. Assuming he sticks on the roster and is a regular next season, he’ll be the second Oiler draft pick from the 2018 draft to make the team (first-rounder Evan Bouchard is the other one). He also sports a sparkling +2, so it’s great to see with more time that he can handle the soft minutes of the third line.

Speaking of the third line, Warren Foegele has cooled off a bit from the beginning of the season, but I’m not worried as the insertion of Mcleod on that line means his wingers will have more leftovers to throw at the opposition’s net.

If he can put up the same 20 points he put up for Carolina last year, I’ll be happy with that, and he’s well on his way with eight points in 20 games. At that rate, he’ll have 33 by the end of the season, and the best part is his shooting % of 8.3% is under his career average of 10.4%. The -6 he’s sporting is a bit of a concern, but over his five year career he’s been a plus player more than a minus player, so that part of things I’m not too concerned about.

The other big thing is Zack Kassian, who was starting to pick things up at a time when Jesse Puljujarvi was snakebitten, has moved up to take the latter’s spot on the first line. Kassian has found his hands again for the first time in years, putting up 4-5-9 in 16 games with a -3 to boot.

He’s riding a 22.2 shooting %, though, so don’t expect it to last, but for now enjoy the ride. The Bison King, meanwhile, hasn’t skipped a beat with his demotion to the third line. Even with the inevitable cut in ice time, he still has 7-9-16 in 20 games with a fantastic +8. He too is sporting an above-average shooting % though, at 13.7% (his career average is 9.8%). That being said, at 23 we may be looking at a new normal for Poolparty, we don’t know yet with him as he’s a couple of years away from his PPY.

Meanwhile, the Oilers might’ve finally come upon a fourth line that works. Derek Ryan is back down to where he belongs on the fourth line since Mcleod is currently entrenched where Ryan was playing at the beginning of the season, on the third line. Tyler Benson is getting into the lineup on a regular basis now, a good sign for his career. No offence for him yet, but he’s pushing.

Kyle Turris is the other guy on that line now, and he recently went up to double digit minutes in ice time again. The other two have seen at least a temporary slight uptick in ice time because of their efforts lately. Benson is -3 while Turris is -5. Ryan at this point sports an ugly – and team worst – -10.

He’ll have to get better if he wants to continue playing in that spot otherwise he’s just giving Tippett incentive to give it right back to Devin Shore when he comes back from injury. After all, Shore is much better defensively at -3 and has put up double the amount of points as Ryan has in less than half the games played.

Brendan Perlini and Colton Sceviour are the odd men out right now, both of whom have proven to be vanilla types. Perlini hasn’t played since Nov. 23 while Sceviour hasn’t played since Nov. 27. Frankly I see no incentive whatsoever to play either of them on the fourth line right now. They have both played 33 games combined total and have a whopping one assist of offence between them, and both of whom are on the bad side of the +/- ledger.

Fringe players have less latitude, that’s just the way it is. Take the message the coach is sending to you and change your approach accordingly.

Props to Kris Russell who recently broke the NHL’s blocked shots record by eclipsing the 2,000 mark. He’ll continue adding to that total as the injuries decimating the defence have given him a higher profile in the organization for the moment. He’s still only fourth on the team in blocked shots on the season, but he’s got a chance to move up the list as his next two competitors – Keith and Ceci – are both out of the lineup right now. Evan Bouchard currently leads the team with 33 right now.

Darnell Nurse currently leads the Oilers in hits – and is 11th in the league right now – with 66. He’s wiping the floor with everyone else in this category – his closest competitor is Kassian with 51. Warren Foegele takes the bronze medal right now with 35.

Special teams have become even better since the last address as the PP is still #1 in the league while the PK is #4 – although for awhile the PK was #2 so that puts a bit of a damper on things.

Some people are panicking about the Oiler’s defensive play, but honestly I don’t see that it’s that big of a deal as the Oilers are currently tops in the division in GF with 77 and fourth in the division in GA at 59 – and honestly their closest competitors in this regard are only one and five goals fewer against in this regard. We can likely chalk this up to the parallel of the PK experiencing a slight down tick in it’s effectiveness. The Oilers are also currently second in the division in both goal differential and points %. They’re one of only two teams right now with a differential over +10 and a points % above .700.

IMO these trends are nothing to worry about at this point. They’re still well on their way to a playoff spot, and they’re tied with LA right now for fewest games played – which means we’ve got at least one game in hand on almost every team in the division, in many cases two or three.

Just get in, and then anything can happen. Look what happened in 1990 – second in the division and Cup winners. Meanwhile, Calgary won the division and was out in the first round. So, just get in, and then it’s all good. They’re still looking like the best team in the division so far, so this bodes well for the rest of the season.