Edmonton Oilers Weeks 3 and 4: What’s Working and What’s Not?

Since my last write-up 2 weeks ago, winds have changed and the tides have shifted but the Oilers continue to move in the right direction! Since then, the Oilers have gone 5-1-0 in 6 games while scoring 26 goals and being scored on 18 times. An impressive continuation of an impressive start but, aside from the absurd special teams play, what is it that’s driving that success? And what’s hampering it?

What’s working?

Nurse-Bouchard

Since being put together, this pairing has seen 111:31 in ice time together and have been controlling play consistently by a significant margin. Humming along to the tune of a 4-3 split in goal share and 57.3% chance share (63.3% xGF, as well), the pairing is performing at the level you’d hope for from your top pairing across all aspects of the game. These kinds of results aren’t something we’ve seen Nurse have with Barrie for any extended period of time so I’ll be keeping a close eye to see whether these results continue- assuming the pairing continues, of course.

Draisaitl (and seemingly anyone he plays with)

As Draisaitl goes, so too does the team. While I have no intention of claiming he’s the team’s best player, it’s hard to ignore the results he has returned since December 31st, 2019.

Since that fateful New Year’s Eve game when Kailer Yamamoto got his recall to the big club, the Deutschland Dangler has been on-ice for 101 goals (1st in league; 5 ahead of McDavid & 17 ahead of Mackinnon) while only conceding 55 goals against (21 fewer than McDavid & the same number as Matthews). While his ‘process numbers’ don’t suggest he “should” be dominating play (49.2% SCF, 51.4% xGF), something about how he plays is yielding disproportionately huge returns and, at this point, the sample is becoming big enough that it can’t be ignored.

This success has carried into the past 2 weeks, as well. Since October 22nd, Drai has been on the ice for 8 goals while conceding just 2 and has acted as the catalyst for the success of both his linemates and the team. If I didn’t know better, I’d think he was the captain! Dominant performances, key plays in key game-situations, unselfish plays to help struggling teammates, off-ice interviews that seem to set the tone for the team- he’s doing it all.

As much as we Oilers fans thank our lucky stars for McDavid, we’d do well to appreciate just how special a player Draisaitl has become!

Hyman

After a bit of an unlucky start, Hyman’s efforts are paying dividends. He’s been a tone-setter with fast, aggressive, and responsible play and is helping control the flow of play when he’s out there. With a 4-2 goal split and a dominant 67% chance share, he’s showing much of the same skillset that made him a major UFA target. He also seems like a genuinely top-notch human in all his off-ice interactions! Despite the concerns I voiced over the offseason about pursuing him, Hyman is making me into a believer.

Koskinen

Any discussion of the team’s success would be incomplete without a reflection on Koskinen’s play. While he still has his weaknesses, he has done well to give his team a chance to win on most nights by posting 5 wins, a 91.0% save percentage and allowing 17 goals over the past 6 games. Far from perfect numbers, but he’s holding up his end of the bargain while the team stabilizes its defensive play and finds a groove.

What’s not?

The 3rd line

In a complete inversion to the first 2 weeks of the season, the 3rd line is struggling. The trio of Foegele, Ryan, and Kassian has been outscored 1-5 and has been caved in chance-wise (15-21 SCF, 28.5% xGF). This simply isn’t good enough for a 3rd line that gets an offensive push and doesn’t see difficult competition. I won’t lay this at the feet of any one of them as they’ve all seen certain weaknesses exploited in recent games, but I’ve seen one of these players in Oilers silks for a few years now and he continues to make many of the same mistakes over and over again. That has to change.

The 4th line

A tale as old as time. No matter who the Oilers roll out on their 4th line, they can’t seem to avoid being man-handled. Nothing about what these guys are doing is good. The entire line could be replaced by a group of AHL-tweeners and little would change. Fortunately they’re barely tasked with any playing time but, for the team to have success when it matters, they need to improve the 4th line. If it can’t score, it has to at least avoid being dominated.

5-on-5 play

As my fellow contributor, Dorin, wrote, the team isn’t as dominant at 5-on-5 as they need to be in order to be considered a truly top-flight team. As has been the case for years, these shortcomings fall largely on the shoulders of the bottom-6. At a combined 3-10 goal share over the past 6 games, they’re giving up a massive proportion of the advantage gained by the top-6. With the kind of skill this team can trot out, it shouldn’t be too much to ask for a bottom-6 that just keeps things simple and doesn’t surrender too much. Unfortunately, it seems it may be too much to expect of this group (again).

How much higher can this team climb? Do you see the seeds of something special in this teams so far? I’d love to hear about it!

(Stats per Natural Stat Trick)