Edmonton Oilers: How’s the division going to shake down?

With the NHL scaling back on covid restrictions, the league is going to have fans in the stands again and the Edmonton Oilers division will be back to what they used to be, save for the Arizona Coyotes moving to the Central Division to make way for the expansion Seattle Kraken. To be honest, that’s not going to shake things up much in the division – the Coyotes are the same bottom feeders they’ve been for years, so not much has changed from the past.

Since most NHL clubs will be finished with their major moves, rosters are more or less set aside from a depth move or two determined by training camp, I thought it would be good to write about how I see the division playing out.

No doubt there will be lots of pushback in the comments section, and I will tell the snipers right now – your comments will not change my opinions in any way. Also, if you disagree with me as always there’s nothing stopping you from signing up to blog on the site and write your own blog with your own opinions on there. That challenge was issued to me and that’s what got me into this racket, so now I’m issuing the same challenge to all my dissenters here. So, without further ado, let’s get to the feature presentation.

Once again the Pacific division will be the weakest in the NHL.

The top tier teams

1. Las Vegas Golden Knights – the cup contenders?

I put a question mark at the end of that because I’m not sure we can call them cup contenders still, as cap issues have forced Vegas to deal away some of their depth to gain cap space, and it certainly doesn’t help that reeling in the big fish in free agency from last year – Alex Pietrangelo – was a massive failure in year one of the deal. He went from 16 goals and 52 points in 70 games in St. Louis two years ago to seven goals and 23 points in 41 games last year. To account for the shrunken season, it’s still a failure when viewed through the lens of points per game – from 0.74 PPG in St. Louis to 0.56 in Vegas. That’s a 25% dip in production year over year – not good. He did better in the playoffs, putting up 12 points in 19 playoff games, but they need him to be better if they hope to move the needle as a franchise.

I’ve also not been very impressed with their work in the offseason this year. They’re slightly over the cap this year but will have LTIR cap space from Alex Tuch’s injury. He’ll be a huge loss on the ice for them, as he put up 18-15-33 in 55 games for them last season.

Vegas still has the same lack of high end talent needed to get them over the top, but that type of player is rarely available in free agency or trade, and even if he was Vegas wouldn’t have the cap space to sign him anyway.

Nonetheless, Vegas still stands the best chance at winning the division once again, as to me they still look like the best team in the Pacific, despite their warts in roster makeup.

Best case scenario – Division winner, limited playoff success

Worst case scenario – 2nd place in the division

What are they to the Oilers? A measuring stick

2. Edmonton Oilers – playoff contenders

I’ve already written about the Oilers offseason here, so I’m not going to dissect their moves again. Call me biased if you want, but I see the Oilers as poised to take the next step as a franchise this upcoming season.

The moves the Oilers made all come with risk but I still view it as calculated risk, and they were all made with one goal in mind: success in the playoffs.

Adam Larsson’s loss will be felt but if Cody Ceci plays the way he did in Pittsburgh last year, he should be able to play the minutes and game Larsson played last year plus add about 10 points of offence to the table. That will only help the team. Duncan Keith will be playing a reduced role here unlike in Chicago last season, which in theory at least should help him be more effective. At least he’ll be a decent seat filler for the prospects on their way up, keeping the seat warm for Philip Broberg or Dmitry Samorukov. That’s called proper player development. Not to mention being much closer to his family will motivate him a ton.

For the first time in easily a decade – and certainly since the cap era – in Warren Foegele the Oilers could have a player who will drive the bus on offence on the third line, which will only help his line mates get better, and create a chain reaction of depth offence in the process. No longer will a bunch of also-rans and AHL bubble players man the third line, we’re loaded for bear with plenty of competition for roster spots. Interestingly enough, Kyle Turris is a bit of wildcard – he might end up on that line, or the fourth, or be waived or sent down to the Condors, who knows?

One thing’s for sure, there’s plenty of competition for roster spots in camp this season.

The weakness for the Oilers will be between the pipes. Mike Smith should be a solid enough option, but who will platoon with him? If we have to go with Mikko Koskinen due to his contract, then I suppose that will do but hopefully either Alex Stalock or Stuart Skinner can dethrone him either in training camp or later on in the season so we can get rid of him once and for all, at the trade deadline if nothing else.

Best case scenario – Win the division and at least one playoff series

Worst case scenario – the likeliest scenario, which is 2nd in the division. In the playoffs bowing out in the first round for the third straight year would be the worst case scenario.

The next tier in the division

At this point in the division you could really flip a coin on where the next three teams will finish. All of them are either in various stages of rebuild or spinning their wheels. Let me tell you why I picked the Kings next.

3. Los Angeles Kings – the playoff losers

I picked the Kings for the next spot in the division because they strike me as the best of the motley crew of teams after the Oilers and Knights. The Oilers and Knights are really the only teams with a realistic chance of success in the NHL this year, everyone else will be fodder for the rest of the NHL to a certain extent.

In a perfect world, there would be a better team in this spot, but like I said before the Pacific division is weak in comparison to the other divisions in the NHL.

The Kings will make the playoffs in the last spot by default, and you heard it here first, they’ll be picked apart in the first round by either Vegas or Edmonton, whoever draws them.

I like LA in this spot because out of all the rebuilding teams, they’re furthest ahead in their rebuild. Second, they made some fantastic acquisitions in the offseason. Snagging Phillip Danault for a contract was nothing short of a coup for the Kings – at 28 he’s in the prime of his career and will definitely move the needle for the franchise. He’ll make a great second line center for them, and is always amongst the league leaders in faceoff wins – I know this because he’s been on my fantasy hockey team most seasons simply because of this. He’s going to a team in LA that has more upside than the Habs do.

Despite the fact Viktor Arvidsson had been on the decline for two seasons in Nashville, Nashville as a franchise has been spinning their wheels for a long time now, so Arvidsson probably saw this move as a get out of jail free card. He’ll provide some much needed depth at RW. The second overall pick from the 2020 draft, Quinton Byfield, will be anchoring the third line, so I love the depth the Kings have at center between Anze Kopitar, Danault, and Byfield.

I’m not as big a fan of the acquisition of old man Alex Edler, but in Vancouver he was playing top pairing minutes, much like the Oilers are doing with Duncan Keith they’re hoping a lesser role will rejuvenate him.

Goal is nothing to write home about for the Kings. Cal Peterson is a decent first option, but he’s still very young so it’s tough to know exactly how he’ll do next season. The boat anchor contract of Jonathan Quick, no longer one of the NHL’s best goalies, is who’s backing him up, and probably will be until his contract expires two seasons from now.

I’m actually surprised to see that GM Rob Blake has put together this team, as nepotism usually doesn’t work in NHL GM positions – we as Oiler fans know this as much as anybody.

Best case scenario – Third place in the division, no playoff success

Worst case scenario – Faltering and falling out of a playoff spot

Who are they to the Oilers? The team that will stink the least in the division. The lowest meat shields, if you will.

4. Vancouver Canucks – the OEL nightmare

This offseason we saw a quintessential GM Jim Benning move that escapes all logic but somehow makes sense to him – the acquisition of Oliver Ekman-Larsson was the acquisition of a player who’s been on the decline for a long time now in exchange for three bad contracts that were all up after this season (OEL’s has six seasons left), and a top six left winger. Oh, and did I mention he sent the Coyotes a second round pick too? Benning, you got PLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYED like a fiddle. All to save just under $3 million in cap space for one season, and then cost cap space for the next five seasons after that. He would’ve been better off just keeping the three bad contracts in the long run, then using the $10 million or so in cap space they’d free up for the future.

You have to admire that level of managerial incompetence, because the Coyotes made out like bandits in this one.

How has Jim Benning not been fired yet in Vancouver? I’m starting to think he learned a little bit too much from Peter Chiarelli from their Boston days.

Garland was a decent pickup but I guarantee you OEL will do next to nothing in Vancouver. The rest of his moves will do nothing to move the rebuild forward – Jack Rathbone, Tucker Poolman, Vasily Podkolzin, and Jason Dickinson. Rathbone might do well in the future, but nothing in the short term. All these players are either generic vanilla types or prospects who won’t make much difference next season.

I guess I could talk about Jaroslav Halak, but at 36 he’s basically a lateral move from Braden Holtby. I pity Thatcher Demko because he’s in the same situation as John Gibson in Anaheim – might as well be a plastic dummy that’s used for target practice for all the shots that are going to be fired against him as they play behind a lousy team. At least Anaheim has some sort of a future to glimpse at, though. I see no such great future in Vancouver.

The only difference between the Canucks now and the Canucks last season is the subtraction of Alex Edler was a step in the right direction but they even managed to limber under that low bar by getting OEL to replace him. Now they have one of the biggest boat anchor contracts in OEL to “help” their rebuilding efforts.

Oh, and did I mention that Vancouver now has just under $11 million of cap space to sign two of their most important players in Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson?  Good luck with that.

Vancouver is a mess. In any other division, they would finish in last this upcoming season. Why hasn’t Jim Benning been fired yet?

Best case scenario – None.  This team is going nowhere fast. They’re the Calgary Flames with a different logo. No playoffs for them, but not drafting high enough to get an impact player to turn things around. Jim Benning’s idea of a rebuild continues. Wildcard spot maybe?

Worst case scenario – They somehow manage to fail worse than Seattle and San Jose will and actually finish last in the division.

What are they to the Oilers? Meat shields extraordinaire. A Yugo to Edmonton’s cadillac.

5. Calgary Flames – the perennial underachievers

The Flames are a dumpster fire right now. Last season they went and signed a bunch of ex-Vancouver Canucks for….reasons. I guess they saw how many cups the Canucks won and figured why not bring them over and hope history repeats itself, right?  *Wink wink*

The Flames have a rotten forward core. Most of their best forwards have all had one elite season and then regressed heavily. They’re talking about extending Johnny Gaudreau when they should be talking about trading him for picks and prospects. That says everything you need to know about GM Brad Treliving. This team is going nowhere fast.

They’re doing the same thing they’ve been doing for the last decade or so – retools and half measures and hope for a miracle. That’s not a recipe for success in the NHL.

They’ve constantly gone from being in the playoffs one year and then out the next – and when they do make the playoffs they rarely win a series.

Their one good forward, Matthew Tkachuk, is a cheap shot artist and unless they surround him with viable talent, he’s just going to get pounded on by the toughest guys in the league. Their so-called “1st line center” Sean Monahan was so bad he was playing on the third line by the end of the season. Lindholm, Mangiapane, and Backlund are…..OK pieces, but still lacking in the high end talent the Flames need to move the needle.

They needed to get younger on D so when Giordano got selected by Seattle, that’s great, but they replaced him with Hanifin, and then replaced Hanifin’s spot with…..Nikita Zadorov – a player who had one good season and has declined for three straight seasons on two different teams. They just strikes me as a desperation move by a GM who’s on the hot seat.

Their biggest move of the offseason was to sign Blake Coleman as a free agent. The fact that he played on Tampa Bay’s third line and is slated to play on Calgary’s second line tells you everything you need to know of the lunacy of this move – I mean, the guy hasn’t even cracked the 40 point mark in six seasons. Let’s say I have overwhelming skepticism this move will work out – especially for just under $5 million a year….wow. Talk about a huge miss.

Kind of like hiring an old dinosaur in Darryl Sutter to be the head coach. Dillon Dube is decent, I guess, and Lucic’s grit isn’t going to come in handy much if they’re not in the playoffs, which they won’t be.

Their situation in goal is the biggest mess on the team. Boat anchor Jakob Markstrom was a poster boy for the team at large – underachievers. Funny how that happens when you sign an average goaltender to an elite contract. At the time of this writing, they have no partner to platoon/backup Markstrom.

As an Oilers fan, part of me is enjoying the Flames suckage because they were constantly chirping at the Oilers when they were rebuilding. Now that the Oilers are clearly the better team, it’s time to turn the tables. If they improve, we can look forward to great playoff series between the two teams, but that’s not happening anytime soon.

Best case scenario – Brad Treliving gets fired and the team starts over with another GM, fully committing to a rebuild instead of half measures. Otherwise they’re going to finish out of the playoffs with no chance of advancement anytime soon. Also, maybe the fans will eventually get over the PTSD of the Markstrom contract. Wildcard spot, maybe?

Worst case scenario – The status quo

What are they to the Oilers? The Vancouver Canucks of southern Alberta, sans the OEL contract.

The bottom rung

7. Seattle Kraken – the expansion team

Save me your foolhardy speech about the success Vegas has had early on in their franchise. NHL history is littered with expansion team forays, and if history has taught us anything it’s that Vegas was the exception, not the rule. Could Seattle do just as well? Maybe, but logic dictates we should keep our expectations low in accordance with history until proven otherwise.

It’s also important to remember Vegas won a lot of trades with other teams prior to their expansion draft which Seattle didn’t replicate. That should be an omen in the grand scheme of things.

Right now Seattle looks a lot like what they are – built on other team’s castoffs and hoping a change of scenery gives their entire team some life. Their forward ranks are…..OK, but nothing to write home about. As you would expect, they’re missing high end talent necessary for success in the NHL. That should come overtime – and if Seattle doesn’t experience early success like Vegas did, one of the good things to come from that will be that in the long term Seattle – at least in theory – will have the ingredients that will make them a more competitive team than Vegas has turned into.

Ditto for their D corps. Adam Larsson was a solid pickup from us, but a) he comes with injury issues – he’s only played a full season three out of 10 seasons and b) he won’t be next to Darnell Nurse but Vince Dunn – and Dunn is not what Nurse is as a puck mover. Giordano and Oleksiak as a pair? Meh. Fleury and Soucy will probably perform on par for what you’d expect as a third pairing.

It’s in goal where we could see Seattle being carried in their season. Somehow managing to steal Grubauer away from Colorado will bring the Kraken their highest profile player in their inaugural season, and although Chris Dreidger doesn’t have a lot of experience he’s done very well in short sample size, and with basically no pressure to perform which can only be good for him.

Best case scenario – Suck in their first season, get as high a draft pick they can and start building some high end talent to add to the collection of castoffs from the expansion draft.

Worst case scenario – Go on a long streak at the end of the season and mess up their draft position.

What are they to the Oilers – Super duper meat shields

8. San Jose Sharks – the demons of cap hell

You may be asking why I picked San Jose for last in the division and not Seattle. It’s simple – at least there’s a plan in Seattle whereas San Jose has a dubious distinction of not even being able to formulate a plan to get out of the mess that GM Doug Wilson has made them into.

You know how many teams in the NHL have one boat anchor contract they regret signing and would love a mulligan on? Well, the Sharks have four of them by my count. Logan Couture is being paid $8 million to put up less than 40 points the last two seasons, and let’s just say I wouldn’t count on him improving on that. Erik Karlsson, the blue liner who complained that he didn’t want to be on a rebuilding team, is being paid $11.5 million a year to be a defensive sieve the last two seasons. Oh, and his point totals have decreased by at least 20 points a season since he made the move to San Jose.

Brent Burns is on the decline, and he’s 36 and signed for four more seasons at $8 million a year. And then there’s the pickle blue liner, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who at one point was a d-man who was great in his own end and could probably put up more supplementary points than any other stay at home guy in the NHL. Not anymore. He’s finished at -10 and -8 the last two seasons and his point totals have declined so bad he only put up six points last year. Six. And for those six points? He was paid $7 million, and will be for the next five seasons.

No team will take any of these contracts off the Shark’s hands, as each and every one of them are unmovable.

And, as if that weren’t bad enough, the one guy who actually earned his huge paycheck last season – Evander Kane – is now caught up in an alleged gambling scandal in which he allegedly tried to make a few bucks on the side by making illegal bets with bookies betting on San Jose to lose. Once this goes through investigation and if Kane is guilty, this will mean the contract is voided and Kane will be banned for life from the NHL.

What makes San Jose so bad is they couldn’t even rebuild their team if they wanted to. A team like Calgary at least has the option of a rebuild, San Jose doesn’t even have the option of a rebuild. Until these boat anchors are off the team, anything more than supplementary depth moves from the bargain bin is out of the question.

Doug Wilson has turned this team into the biggest clown show this division – and possibly the league – has to offer. If I had to guess I’d say the only reason he hasn’t been fired yet is because what self respecting GM would ever take this team over knowing it’s completely untenable cap situation for the next 4-10 seasons? I know I wouldn’t if I was an NHL GM, would you?

Is there any good in San Jose? Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier are still decent players, I guess. At least they were able to get rid of the swiss cheese of Martin Jones. If this team weren’t in a favourable climate, there’s no way they’d be able to attract any talent to the roster.

Best case scenario – Karlsson, Vlasic, Couture, and Burns get sucked into an alternate dimension and any trace of their contracts are burned up in a fire at the records building, Office Space style. Then their team can have a future. But I wouldn’t count on it.

Worst case scenario – The most likely scenario, the status quo

What are they to the Oilers? Supernova meat shields.