The prospects
1. The farm team starter – Stuart Skinner
Stuart Skinner rescued himself from suffering the same fate as so many Oilers goalies before him by putting himself on the map last season. He started out by struggling again, but was then called up to the taxi squad, and promoted to interim number two after Mike Smith started the season injured. He realized his NHL dream by getting a start against rebuilding Ottawa, where he let in two goals after he was a little nervous and stiff.
Once he slayed that dragon, however, and settled down he looked better. Although he let in five goals, he ended up winning that game eight to five. The Oilers then sent him down to Bakersfield to finish up the season and get some more playing time as Mike Smith was healthy again, and called up Dylan Wells to take the taxi squad spot.
Skinner finished the season as an AHL champion (or the version of it last season), and in the top 10 of almost every goalie stat the AHL has to offer. Just like that, he’s put himself into the conversation for a roster spot with the Oilers.
Unless he knocks everyone’s socks off in training camp, expect him to go back down to Bakersfield and prove last season wasn’t a fluke. If he can do just as well or better than last season, expect him to get an extended callup and see Koskinen hit the pine if Koski performs like he did last season.
2. The European rookie – Ilya Konovalov
Selected in the third round in the 2019 NHL draft, Konovalov is the Russian who shows much promise. He played four seasons in the KHL, and in those four seasons he had a sv% above .920 three times, and a GAA below 2.00 twice.
He only played 19 games last season for Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, so that put a bit of a damper on his career as he allegedly lost his starting position to somebody else. Nonetheless, that makes it the perfect time to bring Konovalov to North America to adapt to playing NHL hockey.
Now the KHL isn’t the NHL, granted, but his numbers show great promise. Rumour has it Konovalov will be an Oiler by close to the end of next season. That’s a bit of a lofty expectation to put on a guy who has yet to play a single game of pro hockey on this continent. Personally, I’m going to wait and see how he adapts platooning in Bakersfield before expecting him to be an Oiler. Nonetheless, Koskinen’s struggles present an opportunity for Konovalov if he can seize it.
The most likely scenario is for Konovalov to go down to Bakersfield, platoon with Skinner, and see what happens. In true platooning fashion, the two will likely be fighting for starts with head coach Jay Woodcroft, and the natural competitiveness of guys who are good enough to play at the pro level will push each other to be better and earn the next start.
If the Oilers have an injury, expect one of them to be a no-brainer as an injury fill-in before coming back down to the Condors. If Skinner makes the Oilers towards the end of next season as expected, then Konovalov becomes the de facto starter in Bakersfield with Olivier Rodrigue backing him up.
In theory, the competition between the two goalies should only help the Condors and their chances at making the big time.
3. The next great hope – Olivier Rodrigue
The Oilers haven’t taken a goalie this high up in the draft in a long time – Rodrigue was drafted in the second round in the 2018 draft. The Oilers actually traded their third and fifth-round picks in that draft to Montreal to go up to the 62nd overall spot and draft Rodrigue. Rodrigue didn’t have a great start to his junior career, but he improved every season and was almost elite in his last season in junior.
In a normal year he would’ve joined the Condors from the start of the season, but seeing as how Europe was playing hockey when North America wasn’t during the pandemic, Rodrigue joined a pro team in Austria, where he didn’t put up great stats but as a rookie pro it’s about par for the course.
He was able to join the Condors once AHL hockey resumed with the shortened season. With Skinner performing in such a stellar fashion, Rodrigue didn’t get a lot of starts but he did get 11 starts for the Condors, with only a .894 sv% and a 2.99 GAA to show for it. Even got one start in the playoffs for the Condors. Not a great start, but no need to condemn the 21-year-old as a draft bust after a mere 11 games.
With Konovalov with a better track record at this point, expect Skinner and Konovalov to platoon in Bakersfield, which leaves Rodrigue to be the starter in ECHL Wichita and get more starts in a slower game. If/when one of the other prospects moves up to the Oilers he’ll re-join the Condors. Rodrigue is more of a long-term project, but the organization clearly believes in him so with the proper development maybe he can join the Oilers a few seasons from now.
Bottom line
Right now all of the Oilers incumbents are over the age of 30 (Smith is 39, Koskinen is 33, and Stalock is 34). That means good news for all three of Skinner, Konovalov, and Rodrigue as it means opportunity on the Oilers in both the short and long term. In the short term, they could unseat Koskinen on the team, and in the long term if they work hard, develop properly, and play their cards right, they could be a 1 or 1A goalie with the Oilers for the next decade, solidifying the position in what in theory is a window to win.
But right now, none of the prospects are surefire NHLers. Skinner is the closest, but don’t count on him unseating anyone just yet.
In the long term, both positions are up for grabs. This is a good time to be a goaltender in the Oilers organization – there isn’t a Connor Hellebuyck or Andrei Vasilevsky firmly entrenched at the top for the long term.
The only question going forward now is which guys will take advantage of the opportunities in front of them and which guys won’t. Keep an eye on the prospects, let’s see who makes the cut.