Edmonton Oilers: Why hasn’t Kailer Yamamoto been signed yet?
One piece of business remains on the Edmonton Oilers and Ken Holland’s to-do list that hasn’t been done yet – re-sign Kailer Yamamoto.
I have to wonder what the hold-up between the Edmonton Oilers and Yamamoto. After all, Yamamoto is a player who had a down year last season producing 8-13-21 in 52 games. I’m sure no one expected Yamamoto to keep scoring at a 0.96 PPG rate as he did when called up for 27 games last season, but I don’t think anyone saw this kind of a nosedive.
That being said, it’s hardly time to panic or call him a bust. After all, Yamamoto will be turning 23 before training camp starts (September 29, to be exact) and he only has 105 NHL games on his resume. He has another 95 to go and another two years of age to go before we truly know what we have with this player and how far he can go.
One thing we do know for sure – he has chemistry with Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl two of the best players on the team. Not every NHL player has that, and that’s a great tool to have in his toolbox.
Still, though, he’s an RFA whose contract is finishing after a down year. A bridge contract is very much warranted – two years at $1.5 million a year should do it. The player has no leverage at all – if he continues to improve then maybe on his next contract he can cash in, but now is not the time for him and his agent to dig in and be stubborn.
Of course, we’re not privy to contract negotiations – it could be Holland is putting his feet over the fire or doing some sort of Tsung T’su art of war maneuver or something. Maybe both are going on.
Bottom line, this should be an easy negotiation for both sides and it’s not done yet. I have to wonder why.
The Darnell Nurse extension
Earlier in the summer, Nurse – who has one year to go on his current bridge contract – re-upped with the Oilers for $9.25 million for eight seasons.
Word has it the player was going for less term…..until the Seth Jones contract was signed in Chicago. That set the market for top pairing d-men, so the Oilers had to either pony up or risk seeing Nurse walk away in free agency after next season.
The team had next to no leverage on the player – he has had success for multiple seasons now, he’s proven himself many times over – in the regular season and the playoffs. He got Norris trophy votes after this past season.
As usual, the Oilers’ fans let everyone know their issues with the contract on Twitter after the deal was announced. The criticism that took the cake for me was Nurse isn’t a top pairing d-man.
OK, so if you’re thinking that, then what’s your definition of a top-pairing defenceman? Is it ice time? He led the Oilers in ice time this past season with 25:38 per game. Special teams play? He was seventh on the team in PP ice time, and first in PK ice time.
How about in comparison to other teams? He was 12th in the NHL in boxcars amongst all blueliners in the NHL, going 16-20-36 in 56 games. Just outside the top 10. Think about that for a second. How about defensive play?
He finished with a whopping +27 on the team, second only to Leon Draisaitl and just past Connor Mcdavid at #3 – and that was against the toughest competition the NHL has to offer because that’s who top pairing guys play against. How about physical play? First on the team in PIMs with 57. Fourth on the team in hits with 117 last season, and second on the team in blocked shots with 100.
I don’t know about you, but that seems like a pretty good, balanced player with a lot of tools in his toolbox – he can score, he can play D against tough competition without losing his head, he can play physical, he’s a minute muncher.
There are d-man who are better at any of these categories, but no one is as complete a player as Nurse is on the blueline. No one brings as many tools to blueline as he does.
At this point, if this is you you’re going to have explain to me how Darnell Nurse is NOT a top pairing D-man. If you think he isn’t, you need to call Colonel Mustard and get a clue.
Personally, I have no problem with the contract itself, it was necessary to secure his services. Is there some risk in that he’ll be 35 by the time the contract ends? Maybe, but Nurse is not Ryan Reaves or Tom Wilson or Raffi Torres. Or even Zack Hyman. He can play physical with the best of them but that’s not what his game is based around.
IMO the risk of the contract looking bad is minimal – just my opinion. I don’t know the future – it’s possible I’m wrong – but I don’t see what the brewhaha is about, and IMO the criticism is not warranted.
Also, if you’re a critic of the player or the contract, then riddle me this – who do you replace him with? Losing Nurse would create a huge hole in the lineup. No teams are trading us their top pairing guys no matter what trade package we offer them, and there’s a reason it’s a rarity these players are available in free agency.
It would take a minimum of three seasons to replace Nurse, and likely 5-10. Not to mention it would automatically diminish the performance of Tyson Barrie, who succeeded in large part because of the chemistry he developed with Nurse last season. It would also anger our franchise cornerstones and superstars the McDrai duo, and that’s the last thing you want to do when you’re trying to win now.
My only concern with the deal is where the Oilers are going to get the cap space to pay for it. After all, at the time of this writing, the Oilers are just a shade over $3.2 million over the cap, and they still have to re-sign Yamo, so that’ll likely be closer to five or six by the time it’s all said and done. Yes, we have Klefbom’s LTIR to erase a lot of that, but it won’t erase all of it.
This is a question for Ken Holland to answer next offseason. There’ll be no excuse if he fails to address it because now he won’t have an owner breathing down his neck ordering him to keep a playoff streak alive like he did in Detroit.
Daryl Katz is largely a hands-off owner, a wise decision as he leaves overseeing the team to Bob Nicholson and day-to-day operations to Holland. Owners have meddled in their franchise operations in the past and it never ends well – ask a Leafs fan what they thought of Harold Ballard, as one example.
How many depth contracts are destined for waivers or Bakersfield? There’s bound to be a couple, and that’ll move the needle a little bit in the right direction, but Holland will have to pull a rabbit out of his hat to avoid cap penalties in the coming seasons. It’s not cap hell because this is a much better team than the one Peter Chiarelli had. But the math remains the same.
We’ll see what happens. Maybe when Koskinen’s contract ends next season Holland will look to most of that for the savings.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins re-signs.
The most creative contract of the offseason that Holland constructed goes to Nuge, who signed a very Holland-esque contract. Courtesy of Pierre Lebrun on Twitter, here’s what it looks like:
21-22: $5M salary
22-23: $5.25M salary
23-24: $6.25M salary
24-25: $6.25M salary
25-26: $4M salary plus $2M sb
26-27: $2.25M salary plus $2.5M sb
27-28: $2.5M salary plus $1.25M sb
28-29: $3.75M salary
That’s $41 million over eight years. His cap hit went down to $5.125 million per season. This is some nifty cap maneuvering by Holland. Nuge is still a valuable part of this team, and at 28 he deserves to be an Oiler for the rest of his career. IMO he’s got that now.
As you can see, his salary goes down a bit for the next two seasons, only to get a modest raise for the next two seasons, then a decrease in salary but more upfront money in a signing bonus, then in his last season when he’ll be 36 years old his salary should closer reflect his production.
Nuge will officially spend his entire productive years as an Oiler, and possibly more than that. Much like with the McDrai duo, Nuge will be able to write his own ticket, barring injury or some unforeseen circumstance. He’ll likely keep being re-upped for cheap after that if he still wants to play, but you never know how these things are going to go.
Some have questioned how this contract will age, and that’s fair considering that 35 is when most players fall off a cliff and the fact that it comes with an NMC as well for the duration. But Nuge earned this contract with his loyalty to the organization that in many cases didn’t return it to him until now. He could’ve gotten more on the open market, but staying here and winning a cup with the Oilers is more important to him.
Even with the risk that comes with this contract, IMO it’s a calculated risk. A guy with 478 career points in 656 career games is a known commodity that wants to be here, something that won’t be easy to find from the outside for a top-six forward. Even if he does decline, the decline is unlikely to be as bad as it is for inferior players. Much like Duncan Keith now, he can likely play a reduced role down the road if nothing else and still contribute. Hopefully, he’s got a cup ring to admire by that time.
Bonus material
As you would expect, Warren Foegele, the pickup from Carolina for Ethan Bear, was an RFA and thus needed a new contract. Holland took a much bigger risk than he usually would for depth players, signing Foegele for $8.25 million over three years, which is $2.75 million a season.
Out of all the contracts Holland signed this season, I consider this the riskiest one – yes even riskier than Zach Hyman. After all, there’s an unwritten rule in the NHL that you don’t sign depth players for longer than two seasons and at an absolute maximum of $2 million per year.
Holland broke both of those rules with this player so he obviously believes in him. Only time will tell if this is a good idea. If Foegele plays as advertised and drives the bus on offence against soft competition on the third line – likely eventually with Ryan Mcleod and Josh Archibald – then it’ll be worth it as he helps develop and take the load off of Mcleod and gives Archibald more offensive punch.
There’s also this to consider – if Foegele moves into the top six permanently – as is a possibility – then his contract will be considered a bargain.
On the other hand, if Foegele falls flat on his face this contract will be haunting us for the next three seasons. As I say, only time will tell whether this contract holds up or not.
Brendan Perlini was signed to a one-year, two-way contract at NHL minimum. This is obviously a guy who Dave Tippett remembered from his Arizona days and likely persuaded Holland to sign him for depth. He broke into the NHL well enough, putting up two seasons of 21 and then 30 points for the Coyotes, but then dropped off the map after that – so much so he played a whopping 21 games in Europe last season. This is a typical low-risk, high reward potential for both Tippett and Holland. If Perlini does well, they’ve found a great bottom six-piece at a bargain-basement price. If it doesn’t work out, they send him down to Bakersfield and his cap hit is erased.
Slater Koekkoek was re-signed for two years, $1.85 million over two years, $925K per. We know what he can bring, and injuries hampered him next season. He’ll likely play the lion’s share of the season at third pairing left side. He’ll do great at compensating for the inevitable mistakes that greenhorn Evan Bouchard makes on his other side. If he gets injured again, in steps Kris Russell. If he falls on his face? Waived or sent down to Bakersfield and most of his cap hit gets buried in the minors. Some are chiding Holland for the extra year but this is nit-picking.
Tyler Benson was signed for one year and a 2-way contract for the NHL minimum. Time will tell whether 1/3 of last year’s dynamite first line in Bakersfield can make the jump to the NHL. If he doesn’t do it this year, the Oilers will likely give up on him, considering they’ve got other guys coming they need to develop and give ice time to down there.
His linemate Cooper Marody remains unsigned. Word is his skating is still not up to NHL par. I’m not optimistic for his future with the franchise.
Devin Shore was signed for bottom-six depth, $1.7 million ($850K per) for the next two seasons. We know the kind of depth he can bring, so why not bring it back? Maybe he can be a regular on the fourth line this upcoming season.
Alex Stalock has a real opportunity to take more starts from Mikko Koskinen. Maybe his roster spot altogether. Ditto for Russian prospect Ilya Konovalov, who may not spend too much time in Bakersfield. If either guy becomes an internal option for the Oilers, expect Koskinen to be a lot easier to be traded as it opens up the possibility for a roster dump for the player, with only a pick or prospect coming back rather than forcing another goalie to come back as had been rumored earlier in the summer. Even if they have to retain some salary – which is a real possibility on the overpaid, struggling stopper – it’s totally worth it as the Oilers need the cap savings badly.