Barring an unexpected move, the big changes to the Edmonton Oilers roster are already finished as we all now await the start of the 2021-22 season. General manager Ken Holland has shaken things up quite a bit this offseason, bringing in players like Duncan Keith, Zach Hyman and Cody Ceci, while also trading for Warren Foegele.
Despite these changes, however, Holland’s work isn’t done just yet. The main move now that fans are waiting on is for the team to sign their final restricted free agent in Kailer Yamamoto. While there is still time to get a deal done, some are beginning to worry why nothing has been worked out yet for the 22-year-old winger.
Yamamoto clearly has a lot of talent, which is the reason why the Oilers chose to take him in the first-round (22 overall) at the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. The 2019-20 season appeared to be a coming-out party for the undersized forward, as he was called up midway through the year and impressed mightily with 11 goals and 26 points in 27 games. Those numbers resulted in some high expectations heading into the 2020-21 campaign, expectations he, unfortunately, failed to live up to.
In 52 games this past season, Yamamoto was able to score just eight goals and 21 points and was a non-factor on too many nights for a player the Oilers were counting on to be a reliable top-six forward. The inconsistent play has resulted in much confusion over what type of contract he should receive. Is he the point per game player from two seasons ago, or the hard-working but often non-effective one we saw in 2020-21?
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My guess here is that he is right in between. In 105 career games, Yamamoto has scored 20 goals and 52 points. Those totals don’t jump off the page, but he is still very young. The potential is very clear with this player, but the down 2020-21 year has certainly hurt his chances at a big payday, especially given the fact he has no arbitration rights.
Most seem to agree that giving Yamamoto a long-term deal at this point would be a big risk. He simply hasn’t proven himself enough to earn that, and he himself may not be interested in doing that at this point either. Instead, the vast majority seem to be hoping for a shorter-term deal, preferably two years with an average annual value of $2 million or slightly below.
If a deal in that ballpark is to be signed, it seems to be pretty fair value for what Yamamoto has shown us this far. This would also have the potential to become a bargain deal if he is able to get back to playing the way he did in 2019-20, and is something the Oilers could certainly use given their well-documented lack of scoring wingers over the years.
What the hold up on this deal remains unknown. Perhaps Holland simply just hasn’t felt rushed to get it signed and wanted to get everything else figured out first. However, the chatter surrounding this situation is bound to pick up more and more as we continue through the dog days of summer and get closer to training camp. Hopefully, for both sides, a deal is able to get worked out soon, and at a fair price.