Edmonton Oilers: Recapping free agency day one trades and signings
This has certainly been one of the busiest starts to free agency that I can remember in Oilers history. The Oilers signed four free agents, plus bought out James Neal and made a trade that we were expecting a little bit, but still a somewhat of a surprise.
Let’s get to these moves now.
1. Oilers re-sign RD Tyson Barrie for three years at $13.5 million ($4.5 million per)
The Oilers actually kicked off free agency this morning by announcing the contract for Barrie. This is a prototypical Holland contract as the salary structure is as follows: Year 1 – $3.5 million. Year 2 – $4.5 million. Year 3 – $5.5 million.
This is a little more modest than what we’d expected Barrie to go for, who was expected to go for at least as high as $5.5 million. Could Barrie have made more on the open market and received more term?
Probably, but not until the Dougie Hamilton contract was done. Barrie enjoyed his time here last year – who wouldn’t, after all, when you lead the league in scoring amongst d-men and play a pivotal role on the #1 PP in the league? Once Adam Larsson wasn’t going to be on the team you knew the Oilers would circle back to Barrie.
Pros – This is a pretty good contract, actually. The term isn’t too long and the cap hit isn’t too high. Barrie said his first choice was always to come back here as he enjoyed his time here last season. He’s a known commodity, we know he fits in on the roster and that he has chemistry with Darnell Nurse.
Barrie finished the season +4, only the third time in his 10 NHL seasons that he’s been a + player. That must be a good omen moving forward. Pretty good for a guy who has a reputation of being bad defensively. One thing that was new to me, as well – Barrie was actually fourth on the team in blocked shots last year with 59.
As you would expect, he spends lots of time on the PP and almost none on the PK. For the record, if Barrie maintains the same offensive output he did last season (0.86 PPG) he’ll finish the season with 71 points. Drink that in. With those numbers, he might even crack the 20 goal mark.
Cons – Really, the only question surrounding Barrie is can he do it again? Was last season an outlying aberration or a new normal? All signs point to it being a new normal at least as long as he’s wearing an Oilers uniform, but we don’t know for sure until he plays the games. Also, he’s 30 and although it’s great the contract is only three seasons, he has been playing key minutes for three teams virtually his entire career.
There may be a question by year three if he suffers some collapse, although I’d say that risk looks minimal from here. If last season was an aberration then we have a problem, but the risk of that is minimal.
2. Oilers sign RD Cody Ceci to a four year, $13 million contract ($3.25 million per)
The replacement on the roster for Adam Larsson’s minutes, a lot of people are criticizing this signing but Ceci and Larsson are closer as players than you might think.
For example, Larsson finished second on the Oilers last season with 166 hits. Ceci was fifth on the Pens last season with 74. If he plays in the top 4 – which presumably he will be – then maybe he can close that gap.
What about blocked shots? Larsson led the Oilers last season with 128, while Ceci led the Pens last season with 70. Larsson was second on the Oilers in PK TOI last season with 2:18, while Ceci was second on the Pens last season with 2:32. As you would expect, neither guy plays much on the PP. Ceci actually beat Larsson in the +/- category last season as well, +18 vs. +2. Total TOI? Larsson’s overall ice time last season was 19:39, while Ceci’s overall ice time on the Pens last season was 18:31. That’s pretty close.
What about the offence each player put up? Ceci actually has Larsson beat in that category as well, putting up 17 points last season vs. Larsson’s 10. Career wise, it’s the same story. Ceci has put up more points (37 goals and 143 points vs. 25 goals and 137 points) in less games (549 career in Ceci vs. 603 for Larsson).
So you see, the two players aren’t as different as you think. Ceci is a player who was well known as a “pylon” in his last two seasons in Ottawa and his stint in Toronto, but he remade himself as a stay at home d-man last season with Pittsburgh and the only reason he’s not there now is because other players pushed him off the roster.
In his media availability, Ceci said he wanted to play with Connor Mcdavid and liked the young players on the roster, so Edmonton was a pull for him.
Pros – I see why Holland went after this guy now. Ultimately this was a player who could be had at a modest cap hit who can do all the things that Larsson can do but at $750,000 less than what Larsson will be making with Seattle. I have to hand it to Holland, that’s pretty savvy asset management.
Maybe not quite to the same degree as Larsson – in some areas – but at least comparable. Not to mention he has the capability to produce a higher level of secondary offence, and that’s something the Oilers need, especially from the back end. Partnering him with Duncan Keith should in theory only help. He’s 27 right now and his contract will take him to 31. For the record, Larsson is a year older and thus is more in danger of falling off a cliff in the final year of his contract than Ceci is at his.
Cons – Again, the more I research this deal the more I like it. But as with any new signing, there is risk involved. Are we getting the Ceci of last season in Pittsburgh or the one that didn’t fit in in Ottawa and Toronto? We won’t know until we play the games. If he doesn’t fit in he’s trapped here for four seasons.
3. Oilers sign dual winger Zach Hyman to a seven year, $38.5 million deal ($5.5 million per)
If only Kyle Dubas hadn’t shot himself in the foot by not dealing the neg rights to Holland, we’d have an eight year contract at a lower cap hit on our hands. Alas, this is the maximum term we could do. Hyman is now what Kassian was expected to be for a longer period of time. Hyman is going to be the power forward that will secure the port side of Mcdavid, although he can move to the right side in a pinch. In his media availability he said he and his wife came here on their own, toured some residential areas, saw the city, toured the rink. I’d heard about that visit, but heard it was more of an official visit. The fact that he came to Edmonton on his own dime speaks volumes about how serious he was in coming here.
Pros – Hyman was third on the Leafs in hits last season with 69, and expect him to bring that here to open up space for Mcdavid just like he did previously for Auston Matthews. He did get some PP time in TO last season, but one key for him is only three of his 15 goals and two of his 18 assists last season were on the PP. I see that as a good thing as it means that most of Hyman’s offence is produced at even strength. Whether Hyman will play more, less, or the same on the PP here is hard to say, as the Oilers already have the #1 PP in the league the last two seasons so they may not want to mess with it too much. He also finished third on the Leafs last season in PK TOI with 1:58 per game, and the Oilers could certainly use another ringer on their PK, which wasn’t as strong as their PP last season. Hyman will solidify the top 6, as Mcdavid has been forced to play with lesser players for far too long now. For the first time in decades, the Oilers have six legitimate top six forwards in the top six. For the record, Hyman’s 33 points in 43 games this season work out to 63 points in a full 82 game season. He’s cracked the 20 goal mark twice in his career already, and if he spends most of his season next to Mcdavid I’d say there’s a good chance he’ll do it again.
Cons – Ultimately the length of the contract is a bit of a double-edged sword. It was necessary to get him to sign here, but Hyman just turned 29 at the beginning of June, so this contract will take him until the age of 36. Power forwards tend to have more punishment on their body than bottom six guys or finesse players, so their careers tend to be shorter.
Only time will tell whether Hyman’s case will be typical or atypical of a power forward. If the extreme happens, at least Hyman’s contract can be salvaged as LTIR cap space. Holland is betting this signing will help push the Oilers over the top in the playoffs, and while that’s entirely possible, Hyman only has five goals and 13 points in 32 playoff games over his career. On the plus side, that’s five out of six seasons of his career. Holland is betting the Oilers will win at least one Stanley Cup during Hyman’s contract here to justify it, that way even if it doesn’t age well at least something good will have come from it.
4. Oilers trade RD Ethan Bear to Carolina in exchange for bottom six LW William Foegele
We can expect more of these types of moves for the next few seasons at least from Holland. This is essentially trading away a piece of the future in exchange for more help in the present.
After all, it’s well documented that Bear regressed a bit last season, going from 21 points to a mere eight.
With all the changes being made on D, Bear was going to be in tough for ice time on the right side, between Barrie being re-signed to play on the top pairing, the signing of Cody Ceci to play on the second pairing to replace Larsson, and the plan to make Evan Bouchard a regular on the third pairing next season, what room would there be for Bear on the roster? Obviously, Holland didn’t want to suffer through another questionable season from the 24-year-old blueliner. Likely the only way he would remain an Oiler would be if Dave Tippett thought he was capable of taking all of Adam Larsson’s role and minutes. Obviously, this wasn’t the case.
The Hurricanes seem to see the player differently, as like the Oilers they’ve been remaking their D corps pretty hard too, losing Dougie Hamilton will do that to a club. Bear is slated for second pairing duty in Carolina if daily faceoff is correct. I don’t believe they are expecting him to be a puck mover, just a stay-at-home guy as it looks like he will be partnered with Brady Skjei.
In exchange, the Oilers are getting a bottom-six forward in Warren Foegele, who has proven himself capable of producing secondary offence, something the Oilers sorely need right now. Winnipeg was able to beat us in part because they had better depth than we did at forward.
Foegele just turned 25 in April, so you guessed it, he’s entering his PPY for a full season next year. Foegele put up 10-10-20 in 53 games with the Hurricanes last season, and if he maintains that pace next season he’ll have put up 31 points in an 82 game season.
That’s pretty good – for the record not one player in the bottom six for the Oilers put up that amount of points last season. He also chipped in 1-1-2 in 10 playoff games for the Hurricanes, not bad for a bottom-six forward.
He’s not super physical but is capable of putting up some physical play, finishing with 60 hits for the Canes last season – good enough for 9th on the team – and 12 blocked shots to boot. He doesn’t play a lot on special teams, but did finish 12th on the team in PK ice time with 1:02 per game. Could be an option for the second PK unit next season.
Ultimately, Foegele has arrived as a bottom 6 forward now, while Bear has potential to be a puck-moving blueliner in the future if he has the right mentor. This is the Oilers trading a strength to shore up a weakness. Only time will tell how this trade will look. Could very well work out for both teams.
Other news/Ex-Oilers
James Neal also got bought out. I already wrote about that here so I’m not going to add anything else to that.
Oh, and by the way, the Oilers didn’t issue QOs to Theodor Lennstrom, Dominik Kahun, or Juhjar Khaira.
Another team may take a flyer on Theodor Lennstrom later on in the offseason, but right now he remains unsigned. Smart money says he goes back to Sweden next season. Kahun will probably also get a contract later on in the offseason from a team looking for cheap depth, although he hasn’t really been able to get traction anywhere he’s gone.
I thought the Oilers might re-sign him for cheap until the rumors about them going after Hyman turned out to be true. If nothing else, he can always go back to Germany to play there. So far Khaira is the only one of the three to catch on somewhere else as he signed with the Hawks for two years at $975,000 per.
BREAKING NEWS: Oilers sign right C Derek Ryan for two years, $2.5 million ($1.25 million per)
I was about to start proofreading this blog when I checked CapFriendly one last time and saw that the Oilers cap space had shrunk. Turned out Holland wrapped up this deal during his media availability.
Ryan is poised to be the Oiler’s fourth line C next year. He moves up highway two from Calgary, where he’s spent the last three seasons.
Pros – like Foegele, Ryan proves to be an upgrade for the bottom six, as he’s put up 29-38 points in four of the last five seasons. If I had to guess I’m going to say he’s either going to be a mentor or competition for Ryan Mcleod next season.
Maybe he centers a line with Mcleod and Dylan Holloway, I don’t know. Anyway, other than that as you would expect he doesn’t do a lot of time on the PP, but spent 1:50 per game on the Flames’s PK last season, good enough for sixth on the team. Another weapon for a PK that needs it, always a good thing.
He’s the right shot center the Oilers have been looking for for a long time now, so he has that too. One area he’s really going to shore up – he was 52.04% in the faceoff dot last season and is 55.04% in his career in that area. Expect him to be the main faceoff guy for the bottom six next season. He only took 250 of them last season, but that’s sufficient for the bottom six. Was +6 last season and has only been a minus player twice in his career – and the Flames were a lousy team last season. Cap hit is bottom-six friendly.
Cons – Not very physical as he was outside the Flames’s top 10 in both hits and blocked shots. Boxcars slipped to 2-11-13 in 43 games for the Flames last season. Fair to ask if this is a new normal or a blip on the radar screen. Doesn’t solve the issue of 3rd line center, but Tippett does operate on a meritocracy so maybe he plays there at some point.
At 34 he doesn’t inspire confidence his boxcars will improve. Holland will have to remake the bottom six once again, and we can only hope there are other guys pushing Ryan for ice time. At least his cap hit can be almost completely buried in the minors if he falters. Will have to give him an oil bath to wash the Flames stink off of him.