Many expected the Edmonton Oilers to be busy this offseason, though you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who would have predicted the moves general manager Ken Holland has made thus far.
The first big move came when he was able to re-sign Ryan Nugent Hopkins to a very team-friendly eight-year, $41 million deal. While fans were quite happy about this move, they weren’t nearly as impressed with the one that followed, as the Oilers acquired Duncan Keith (and his entire salary) in exchange for Caleb Jones and a third-round pick.
Things only got worse from there, as Adam Larsson decided to sign a four-year, $16 million deal with the Seattle Kraken despite reportedly receiving the same offer from the Oilers. Now, it appears another questionable move may soon be made by Holland, as it is being reported the team is nearing a seven or eight-year contract with current Toronto Maple Leafs forward Zach Hyman.
Immediate Boost
Make no mistake, Hyman is a very solid player and plays the style of game the Oilers could really use in their lineup. He is capable of scoring north of 20 goals and is used to playing with star-caliber players as he was often lined up alongside Auston Matthews in Toronto. On top of that, he also brings a very gritty style of game that Edmonton has often seemed to lack.
The rumors surrounding this deal suggest the cap hit will be right around $5 million per season, which is just a shade less than Nugent-Hopkins got. That seems to be a pretty fair deal for Hyman, who is coming off of a 15 goal, 33 point year in which he suited up for just 43 games.
The issue, however, is the term. Hyman is already 29 years old and as mentioned above plays very tenaciously, a style that results in many players slowing down shortly after the age of 30. On top of that, he has dealt with multiple knee injuries throughout his playing career, which should be a cause for concern in itself.
Disastrous Comparables
This deal gives off some eerily similar vibes to the summer of 2016 where the Oilers announced the signing of Milan Lucic. Once again, this was the type of player everyone agreed Edmonton needed in their lineup, but many questioned how effective he would be during the latter stages of the contract. As it turned out, this contract was a disaster since almost day one, and he was moved to the Calgary Flames just three seasons later as a result.
While Hyman and Lucic aren’t exactly comparable players, both play a physical style, one that has clearly caught up to Lucic in recent years. There were some other examples of players who both play a similar style and signed big deals during that offseason that didn’t work out either. Guys like Andrew Ladd, David Backes, and Troy Brouwer were all handed significant money that summer and were unable to produce like their teams had hoped.
Ladd was signed to a seven-year deal with the New York Islanders after a number of impressive seasons with the Winnipeg Jets. Unfortunately, his style of play clearly wore on him, and outside of a 23 goal season with the Islanders in year one of the deal he was a huge disappointment and found himself in the AHL just three seasons after the deal was signed.
Backes at the time was another power forward style player who was capable of putting up solid offensive numbers throughout his lengthy stint with the Blues. Unfortunately, that offence didn’t follow him to the Boston Bruins, who he signed a five-year deal with. By the time year three of this deal hit, he was being healthy scratched at times and was traded to the Anaheim Ducks in a cap dump in year four of the deal.
The final comparison is Brouwer, who signed a four-year deal with the Calgary Flames that same offseason. While he wasn’t as talented as the two mentioned above, he had scored north of 20 goals in two of the prior three seasons, something the Flames were hoping for from him. That never turned out to be the case as he was nowhere near the player the team was expecting and was bought out after just two seasons as a result.
Of course, the contracts mentioned above ended up being regretful almost immediately, which likely wouldn’t be the case with Hyman. To this point, he has shown zero signs of slowing down and should be able to help the Oilers in the immediate future. However, he will be 37-years-old by the time this contract is up, and will undoubtedly be a fraction of the player he is now in the later stages of this deal.
While this deal has yet to be officially signed, it feels like forgone conclusion at this point given the chatter it is getting from some very credible insiders. Hopefully, this is a deal that can be beneficial for both sides, not just immediately but years down the road as well. However, that doesn’t appear likely and makes this both a huge and unnecessary risk by Holland.