Edmonton Oilers: Could Keith Yandle be a good fit with the team?

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For those who haven’t heard, Keith Yandle was recently bought out by Florida. He was a victim of the numbers game as several younger d-men were pushing him off the roster in Florida, and they couldn’t do a disservice to a player who still had two years left on his contract.

Keith’s numbers have declined the last two seasons, from a career-high of 62 points in 2018-19 to 45 points two seasons ago to 27 points last season. However, it’s important to keep in mind the covid shortened season – he put up 0.48 PPG last season which would translate out to 39 points in a full 82 game season.

Keith can still play, but he’ll be 35 by the time next season starts so his age will scare off a lot of teams from giving him a long-term contract.

I see Keith as a free agent contract that we can “Tyson Barrie” on a short-term, one-year contract in a reduced role to build up his game again – exactly like what we’re doing with Duncan Keith except this player doesn’t have nearly as much decline.

He’s got the skills to push Duncan Keith for playing time as well, and that can only be good for the team. If Keith does indeed falter as the risk factor for him indicates, then you just promote Yandle and demote Keith. If Keith still plays to his potential as expected, then the Oilers will have two solid d-men in the second and third pairing port side. Plus, what better mentor for Evan Bouchard on the third pairing? Talk about a match made in heaven.

What else?

Yandle can be a bit of an adventure defensively, as he’s had three seasons of -23, -32, and -17 in his 62 game season. It’s a toss-up because in 16 seasons he’s had 8 each on the + and – side of the spectrum, including two sparkling seasons of +16 and +12.

In theory, at least, playing a reduced role on the third pairing with potential for second pairing minutes – with maybe some PP time thrown in to increase his minutes – should mitigate some of the defensive risk. Yandle just passed the 1,000 game mark this past season and has 1,032 overall. That’s a good experience.

Oh, and he’s played 58 playoff games in which he’s gone 6-30-36 in his career. Pretty good clip to run at in the playoffs, so this guy knows how to elevate his game at that point. Again, talk about a great mentor for Evan Bouchard, who didn’t play a single game in the playoffs for Edmonton this past season.

He only played two seconds a game shorthanded on the Panther’s PK last season, so not much of a factor there. He actually led the Panthers in PP ice time last season, finishing with a whopping 4:27 per game. Yandle would be a natural add to the 2nd unit PP here. If he can get 20 points in a third-pairing role here next season, and have the PP work as well for him as it did for Barrie last season, then he could sign a bonus-laden retirement contract elsewhere and potentially earn, say $4-5 million if he hits all his bonuses.

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Yandle isn’t super physical, but he did contribute 18 hits to the Panthers last season and was eighth on the team in blocked shots with 27. I’m sure Nurse and Larsson (if he returns) would appreciate some help in that regard, as they both finished 1-2 in that stat last season on the Oilers. Overall he finished at 17:15 in total TOI last season.

With Keith and Yandle on the roster, Dave Tippett has the option to reduce the burden on Darnell Nurse and his partner on the top pairing (which is unclear at the time of this writing as Adam Larsson remains unsigned), as he’ll have experience on the port side in literally every single pairing. That’s pretty sweet from a team POV. You could even roll three pairings if you wanted to, which is exciting to think about.

Another great perk of signing him – he would be a great placeholder until Broberg or Samorukov are ready – probably two seasons from now.

What would we pay him?

I’m thinking one year, $1.5 million with an additional $500,000 in bonuses – like finishing on the good side of +/- and hitting 20 points which for Yandle shouldn’t be too hard even on the third pairing.

Would he come here?

Good question. Like I said once before, his age will scare off a lot of teams. Getting a contract to play in anybody’s top 4 will probably be difficult for Yandle.

This means if he wants to continue his career he’ll have to accept a reduced role. He had to have paid attention to what happened to Tyson Barrie here last season and how he revitalized his career as an Oiler on a short-term value contract. There’s no reason it couldn’t happen again with Yandle, despite his reduced role.

If he does well here in a reduced role, teams might be more apt to go after him with longer contracts, say three or four seasons with a $2 million salary with another $2-2.5 million in bonuses. If it worked once, it can work again.

Right now he’s a guy who got pushed off a roster by younger players, and that’s not a black mark you want on your NHL resume. Next year he could be the guy who did well and contributed experience to a team with two of the best players in the game and helped to make the Oilers PP even more lethal and retain their #1 PP standing in the league for the third year in a row. The second scenario is much more positive, and will result in better offers for Yandle after next season.

Couldn’t we just sign Ryan Suter? Wouldn’t that be better?

No. Suter is older and declined a lot more last season. Also, Yandle can score at a better rate than Suter. Suter has a career PPG of .51 PPG, while Yandle has a career PPG of 0.58. In other words, Yandle has put up 12% more offence in his career than Suter has, and hasn’t declined as much. I’ll take Yandle over Suter anyday, thank you very much.

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