Entry Draft: Who Should the Oilers Target in the 1st Round?
With the 2021 NHL draft around the corner, now would be a good time to review the options likely to be available to the Oilers at 19th overall. Given the nature of the season that’s just occurred, there’s even less publicly available information than usual so the analysis will be limited.
I’ve been writing about the draft in various places for a number of years and love checking my own preferences after the fact. Over the past few years, the players I would’ve picked in the Oilers’ draft positions within the first two rounds included players like Lukas Reichel (2020), trade down for Philip Tomasino and Nick Robertson (2019), Noah Dobson and Cam Hillis (2018), Henri Jokiharju (2017), and Mikhail Sergachev and Carter Hart (2016).
With that out of the way, let’s dive right in with the big and obvious name first!
G, Sebastian Cossa (ranked between 14 & 32)
Sebastian Cossa is a monstrous 6’6, 203 lbs goalie for the Edmonton Oil Kings (*flashbacks to Mitch Moroz and Griffin Reinhart*) who plays a calm and controlled game between the pipes. Posting a ridiculous 17-1-1 record with .941 save percentage (sv%) and 1.59 GAA. This comes after a draft-1 season where his stat line was similarly impressive (for a 17 year old) at 21-6-3 with a .921 sv% and 2.23 GAA.
In the interest of honesty, I can say nothing original about Cossa’s game. I have neither an eye for or much of an interest in the finer nuances of the goaltending position. As such, I’ll direct your attention to the analyses of Ben Kerr over at Last Word On Sports and Josh Tessler at SmahtScouting. The following is an excerpt from Kerr’s article:
“Coming in at 6’6″, Cossa has the type of ideal size that NHL teams are looking for in a modern goalie prospect. He takes advantage of his size and gives shooters little net to look at with his strong positioning. He gets out to the top of the crease and cuts down angles well. He’s not one to get outside of his crease, but given his frame and his ability to stay square to the puck, Cossa doesn’t need to. Cossa has strong legs and good movement. His puck tracking is very good and he gets side-to-side quickly, always being in the right position to challenge the shooter. By playing a slight bit deeper than most goalies he can get side to side quickly and make saves on cross-ice passes. Cossa’s legs are strong and he gets up and down in the butterfly quickly.” – Ben Kerr
Now, I know what many of you might be thinking: “But picking goalies in the 1st round isn’t worth the risk!”. While this may have been true at times in the past, I’ve seen compelling arguments to the contrary.
Looking back at more recent drafts, there were 4 goalies selected in the 1st round: Jake Oettinger (26th in 2017), Ilya Samsonov (24th in 2015), Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th in 2012), and Malcolm Subban (24th in 2012). A small sample size but 2 are currently NHL starters, 1 is trending towards an NHL starter’s role, and the last one is an NHL backup. What if we expand the scope of the search to the first 2 goalies selected in each draft (as Cossa projects to be the 2nd goalie picked after Jesper Wallstedt)?
2017: Oettinger*, Luukkonen
2016: Hart*, Parsons
2015: Samsonov*, Blackwood*
2014: MacDonald, Demko*
2013: Fucale, Jarry*
2012: Vasilevskiy*, Subban
*denotes players who I would call ‘successes’ relative to draft position
Considering this, we’re looking at 7 of 12 goalies in the sample as ‘meeting or exceeding expectations’ which equates to a 58.3% success rate. Considering the success rate for the picks ranging from 19th (~55%) to 54th (~36%), I don’t see evidence to suggest that picking a goalie is quite the risk it’s made out to be. Of course, this necessitates that we trust our player development staff and goalie coaches to properly develop such a pick- and I don’t blame anyone for having their doubts.
The most apt comparison I’ve seen of him is to Ben Bishop of the Dallas Stars. Both huge goalies, both play within their crease, and both are more-than-capable puck handlers.
LW/RW, Oskar Olausson (ranked between 14 & 30)
Oskar Olausson is a 6’2, 181 lbs left-shot winger from Sweden who spent last season bouncing around in HV71’s system. He proved himself to be well ahead of his peer group when played in the U-20 circuit posting 14 goals and 27 points in 16 games and held his own when he played at the highest level with HV71 in the SHL where he posted 3 goals and 4 points in 16 games.
Where he looked most “at home” was in Sweden’s relegation league (the Allsvenskan) with Södertälje SK potting 3 goals and 6 points in his 11 games there. Conveniently, his hometown HV71 team was relegated to this league for the 2021-22 season so Oskar seems like he’ll be in the perfect place in which to maximize his development.
Olausson is an exciting bundle of talent. He’s an excellent skater in virtually every dimension, he attacks the net, has a strong and varied shooting arsenal, and has hands that help him navigate contested ice. He specifically excels in playing a high-tempo game where he gets to focus on his strengths of skating the puck up the ice and scoring off the rush. Defensively, he works hard and is willing to get involved along the boards.
He’s not without his weaknesses, though. Like many shooters, Olausson’s playmaking game leaves something to be desired and, as such, most of his assists come off of rebounds or deflections. In line with this, the finer details to his game (defensive coverage & offensive decision-making) also need improvement.
I compare his game to that of Filip Forsberg in the manner in which he gains and attacks the zone. However, as he lacks Forsberg’s higher-level playmaking abilities, he likely doesn’t have that kind of ceiling of an offensive-driver. He strikes me as a great complimentary winger for a C that thrives off the rush and needs someone who will engage in the hard areas. Doesn’t that sound like something the Oilers could use?
C/W, Francesco Pinelli (ranked between 12 & 31)
I’m someone who values having an excess of centers on my team due to the versatility it provides. Particularly, I like ones that have a mix of skill, speed, and work ethic: enter Francesco Pinelli of the Kitchener Rangers.
After the cancellation of the OHL season, Pinelli went and found himself a spot to in play in Slovenia on HDD Jesenice of the AlpsHL where he scored 5 goals and 11 points in 13 games. While this is hardly a league renowned for producing NHL talent, this is quality production for a 17-year old playing in a men’s league on the other side of the world. In his draft-1 season, he posted 18 goals and 41 points in 59 games- with 13 goals and 34 points coming at even strength.
Pinelli is a 6’1, 185lbs, left-shot C who demonstrates a range of skills that would allow him to be an impact player in the NHL in a variety of roles. Need a playmaking 2C? Pinelli is touted for his high-end hockey IQ and ability to feather passes through the smallest of gaps.
Need a winger to help finish plays? Pinelli also brings finishing ability to the table with a strong and quick release from mid-range. Need a skilled 3C that can help shutdown opposing forwards? Pinelli is also noted for having a very well-rounded game. Name a role and Pinelli can probably fill it.
Due to the pace he thinks and plays at, Pinelli is an exciting player to watch. Constantly scanning the ice and planning his next moves, he’s adept at setting up his teammates, finishing plays himself, or picking off a puck in the defensive zone. As such, the play is often going in the right direction when Pinelli is on the ice.
His versatility both in style and position have led others to compare him to players like Ryan O’Reilly but I’m not sure I think it’s apt given the role skating speed plays in Pinelli’s game. Maybe it’s not a perfect comparison, but his scouting report reads quite a lot like the Oilers’ very own Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. In particular, his understated release and how he looks while finishing plays screams Nuge to me, but I’m hardly an expert.
Who do you want out of the Oilers to pick at 19? Or perhaps do you want them to trade down? Let me know down in the comments!