Edmonton Oilers: The Keith trade finally happened, now what?

The Edmonton Oilers made a trade yesterday with the Chicago Blackhawks bringing Duncan Keith to Edmonton.

Duncan Keith is an Oiler, as per TSN. We have to assume that Oscar Klefbom’s career is essentially over as the Oilers are moving on with this acquisition. I’d rather have Klefbom as a player fully recovered, too, but at this point, that’s looking more and more like a non-option, so I guess at some point the team has to move on.

If I had to guess I’d also assume the Oilers will sign Adam Larsson after the expansion draft so they don’t have to protect him. After all, Keith has a NMC so with his acquisition that means the Oilers have no choice but to protect him (and no, people in the comments section, the clause was waived temporarily for this trade, it comes back into effect once the trade is completed).

I have strongly mixed feelings about this trade. Keith’s age is a concern, but apparently, after the spotlight was shined on him as a player, just like Mike Smith, Keith is a fitness freak, so he’s in great shape.

Also in his corner is the fact that the Oilers are planning to use what I’m dubbing the “Kris Russell effect” on Keith – play him in a lesser role see more success. Remember Kris Russell? He was dubbed a failure as he was expected to be a top pairing D-man in Calgary and Dallas, and had failed both times.

The Oilers then came along and signed him to a PTO. With their D corps at the time terrible, Russell impressed the GM of the day enough that he was signed to a one-year contract to see what he could do. Then he was re-signed for $4.1 million for three more years. He plays a pretty physical game, so there was some decline in his play over his time here, which then explains why after his $4 million contract was up after last season he signed for $1.25 million for one more.

The gamble with Russell has largely paid off. Russell was never expected to be a top-pairing d-man here, nor was he expected to put up points consistently. With those two things out of the way, Russell was able to resurrect his career here as a stay-at-home guy who kicks in supplementary offence.

Will the same thing happen with Keith? Hard to say for sure, but the signs are there. The aforementioned fitness level, the fact that he’s coming off a high level of play in the past. The decline in play is concerning, of course, but he’s coming off a higher level than most NHLers. I don’t watch Hawks games, so I can’t say this for sure, but apparently, Keith can still skate, which is a big plus in today’s day and age.

But….

WHY OH WHY DIDN’T THE OILERS INSIST THE HAWKS RETAIN SALARY IN THE TRADE?

After all, Hawks GM Stan Bowman had literally no leverage in this trade. His player had a NMC, so he could determine where he went. He only wanted four teams, and two of them said no right away. The other one was an expansion team that Keith would be unlikely to want to go to. That left him with only one team, the Oilers. Chicago would’ve had to protect him in the expansion draft, but the Oilers didn’t need him as urgently as the Hawks needed to get rid of him.

Not to mention the player has been a declining asset for multiple years now and isn’t the player he once was, not unusual at all for a player of 38 (by the time the season starts).

Bowman seems to be stuck in the past and is a bit delusional in valuing his players. After all, he asked for Ethan Bear or Ryan Mcleod in the initial stages of negotiation, or so the rumor goes.

Holland is not trading for Duncan Keith the guy who won three cups, two Norris trophies, and a Hart trophy. That guy doesn’t exist anymore. Yet, Bowman still seems to think he is.

The Oilers had all the leverage, and Bowman had none. Holland has massively failed to take advantage of the situation by not asking the Hawks to retain salary. The guy is not worth $5.5 million for two years right now. He once was, but not anymore.

I hope more information comes out and I’m wrong on this one, but at this point, it looks like I’m right.

The return to the Hawks is pretty much as expected – Caleb Jones and a 3rd round pick. Neither of those things are a big loss, although I would’ve liked to have seen how Jones rebounded after last season, but I get it. The Oilers get a chance to elevate their experience level on D and Jones is the centerpiece necessary so the Hawks can court Seth Jones. You gotta give something if you wanna get something, right?

Bottom line

How’s this trade going to work out? Hard to say at this point. I’m willing to give it a chance but I’m disappointed Holland didn’t make the Hawks retain salary in the trade.

The Oilers are giving up a blueliner on the decline in exchange for another blueliner on the decline who has a lot more experience but is also much more expensive. As for his level of play, I’ll believe it when I see it.

If Keith is indeed the fitness freak he’s billed as, then he’ll make a decent placeholder on the 2nd pairing until Philip Broberg or Dmitri Samorukov are ready to step up to the plate. In theory, with a reduced role (Keith was still being used as a top pairing guy in Chicago), his play should improve.

But that’s a leap of faith at this point. Holland is taking most of the risk in this trade, which if he had insisted on retained salary would’ve been mitigated. Here he won’t have to play in the top pairing because Darnell Nurse is firmly planted in that role on the left side.

Jones is still young enough that he could become an impact guy for the Hawks in time, but who knows? The 3rd rounder is no big loss.