The Edmonton Oilers made a trade, and the ramifications are going to have an impact on this team for a while.
With the Duncan Keith trade finally happening and the Edmonton Oilers giving up Jones and a conditional draft pick, the summer has started with a bang. There are lots of various views on the quality of this trade. My larger concern is how will this move change who the Edmonton Oilers protect in the upcoming Seattle Kraken expansion draft.
Prior To The Trade
Prior to this I would have gone with the 7F/3D/1G layout, with Adam Larsson being re-signed before the draft. Protecting Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Josh Archibald, and Tyler Benson as my protected forwards. Nurse, Larsson, and Bear for defensemen. With Stuart Skinner as my protected goalie. With this, we would have been able to guarantee that Larsson doesn’t have to go to free agency and the Oilers can make sure they keep a strong right side on the blue line.
Post Trade
Now that this trade has been completed it takes away the option to sign Adam Larsson before the draft. If Larsson is not re-signed my projected protect list doesn’t change much the only change is Duncan Keith in Larsson’s spot. With this option, there is the chance that Larsson goes out a takes a look at what else is out there in the free-agent market, where he might leave causing a large hole in the Oilers’ right side.
If we do re-sign Larsson before the draft the protection list gets a bit more difficult. I assume they will go with the 8FD/1G layout. For defense, I would protect newly acquired Keith, re-signed Larsson, Nurse, and Bear. The goaltender would still be Skinner. The forwards would be McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Puljujarvi. Going this way would leave Yamamoto, Archibald and Benson exposed to be picked by Seattle.
Letting Seattle select a better player is a double-edged sword for the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers will become a weaker team and Seattle will get better. Being in the same division next year the Edmonton Oilers do not need to do the Seattle Kraken any favors.
Overall I am in think I am in the minority in liking the Duncan Keith trade. He adds experience and defensive depth. This move pretty much tells me that Ken Holland is not going to re-sign Adam Larsson prior to the Expansion Draft on July 21. If he does the Oilers will be losing a much better player than they would have is he does not.