Oilers: A Duncan Keith Trade Makes Sense For The Right Price

For the past week, numerous Edmonton Oilers reporters have discussed the possibility of acquiring Blackhawks defenceman Duncan Keith.

That name garnered interest from plenty of Oilers fans, as Keith is not only a three-time Stanley Cup champion but also a two-time Norris Trophy winner. However, he is no longer that player.

The soon-to-be 38-year-old, along with the Blackhawks in general, has slowed down in recent years and is certainly not the elite defender he once was. In 54 games this season, he managed just four goals and 15 points, a far cry from the numbers he was capable of producing in his prime.

Despite this, he still has some value, more than many seem to be giving him credit for since rumors of this trade first arose. Though the Blackhawks blueline wasn’t anything to marvel over this past season, Keith averaged an impressive 23:25 minutes of ice time per game, a number that led all of his teammates and ranked 24th amongst all NHLers.

Sure, there are plenty of examples of how bad his analytics were this season, but that is largely due to the fact that he was forced to play the role of a number one defenceman, something he no longer is. If he were to come to the Oilers, he would be able to play a lesser role, likely on the second pairing, and that could help his game in a big way.

The Problem

The biggest issue with acquiring Keith is his contract situation. For years, he was considered one of the league’s better contracts after signing a 13-year, $72 million deal that carries an average annual value (AAV) of $5,538,462. However, as mentioned above, he is not the same player he once was and that cap hit is quite expensive for what he is now.

At that current contract, the Oilers simply cannot afford to bring him in. Not only do they still have to do their best to re-sign Adam Larsson, but they will likely try and target at least one forward, perhaps multiple, via free agency.

What that means is that they will need to try and keep as much money open as possible, and bringing in Keith with a cap hit of just over $5.5 million would not allow that. Instead, what they could try to do is convince the Blackhawks to retain some of Keith’s salary.

Let’s say, for example, the Blackhawks agreed to retain 50 percent of Keith’s salary. That would result in the Oilers acquiring him at a cap hit of just $2,769,231, which is a far more affordable price, especially if he is able to play in a top-four role. Given his skating ability which still remains the top part of his game, that feels very attainable.

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The Benefit

Of course, in order to get the Blackhawks to agree to retain some of his salaries, it means the Oilers would have to give up something of value. One name that has been floating around plenty in these Keith rumors is Caleb Jones.

The 24-year-old defenceman clearly has potential but has been unable to gain the trust of the Oilers’ current coaching staff the past two seasons. In 33 games this year, he managed just four assists while averaging only 13:36 in ice time. While he does have one more season remaining on his contract with an AAV of $850,000, his time with the Oilers organization appears to be coming to an end.

While some have made it clear they disagree with moving Jones for Keith, I personally think it makes sense for the Oilers given the fact they do not seem very high on the young defenceman.

It is unfortunate because he does appear to have potential, but it doesn’t look like he will become much of anything in Edmonton at this point. For him, he would get a fresh start while the Oilers would get a defenceman who could benefit the lineup in a bigger way right now.

On top of being able to slide in behind Darnell Nurse on the left-hand side, Keith also brings a very big veteran presence to a locker room that is lacking just that.

This past season, the Oilers had just two players with a Stanley Cup ring in Alex Chiasson and Josh Archibald. As already stated, Keith himself has three with the Blackhawks, and played an extremely pivotal role in them, proven by his Conn Smythe win in 2015.

Whether or not to pull the trigger on this trade comes down to the cost. First, the Blackhawks have to be willing to retain a decent chunk of his salary, preferably 50 percent. Second, their asking price has to be reasonable.

Giving up anything more than just Jones alone would be a serious overpay, and if that is what is being asked Ken Holland would we wise to hang up the phone. If they are willing to retain salary and take just Jones, however, it is a trade that could truly benefit the Oilers.