Offseason Options: Could J.T. Compher benefit the Oilers?

For the next in my series of offseason acquisition options for the Oilers, I’ll be diving into the possible merits of pursuing RW/C J.T. Compher of the Colorado Avalanche. This will be the first player I’ve covered that’s still under contract with his team but, due to his contract and diminishing role with the team, could be a target for acquisition.

What has he done recently?

Compher is coming off a successful campaign that saw him thrive on a top-notch Avalanche team. At 5-on-5, he contributed 9 goals and 15 points while seeing 10:10 mins/game. This equates to 1.84 pts/60 which would have seen him rank 3rd on the Oilers behind only- who guessed it?- McDavid and Draisaitl.

This is also currently the highest scoring rate of any of the options I’ve covered so far, edging out Nick Bjugstad of the Minnesota Wild. Further, his lines outscored their opposition 26-12 (68.4% GF) and out-chanced their opposition 221-160 (58.0% SCF) while getting only 38.6% of his faceoffs in the offensive zone.

In the 2 prior seasons, Compher scored 31 points in 67 games and 32 points in 66 games which translates to 1.63 and 1.56 pts/60 respectively. His lines have also outscored their opposition 35-24 (59.3% GF) in 2019-20 and got outscored 27-31 (46.6% GF) in 2018-19.

In conjunction with his results from 2020-21, you can see that Compher appears to be trending upwards alongside the Avalanche and this trend is mirrored in his results relative to his team where he has seen a progression from -3.5 to +1.1 to +10.6 in relGF%. This speaks to a young player that seems to be really coming into his own in the NHL.

What could he bring to the Oilers?

As far as other things Compher brings, he’s a consistently average faceoff man (~50% at 5-on-5) and is actively used on the penalty kill with over 2 mins/game in each of the past 2 seasons. However, he doesn’t seem to be a particularly effective PKer. While scoring chances remain rather stable compared to his team without him on the ice, his team-relative goals against rate have been quite high the past two years (+3.1 and +4 GA/60).

Beyond this, he has also consistently been used on the powerplay, where his role has progressively decreased as Colorado has become one of the league’s top teams. He’s a somewhat physical player (4.5 hits/60; around Neal) and demonstrates moderate defensive abilities with 3.4 blocks/60 (around Shore) and 1.3 takeaways/60 (around RNH).

As for his ability to perform in the playoffs, Compher seems to be an effective middle-6 contributor for his team. With the exception of this season, he has scored at or above a 0.5 pts/gm rate and was only outscored while on the ice in 2017-18- his rookie season.

Conclusion

Compher has been building a track record as an effective bottom-6 utility forward. If he can be acquired for a reasonable price as a cap casualty out of Colorado ($3.5mil for 2 more years), he would constitute a quality upgrade to the Oilers’ bottom-6 and could even have hidden value if he continues to progress his game as he has.

Given his above-average skating ability and high work ethic, he’d also represent a shift towards a faster and more offensively capable bottom-6. I’m firm of the belief that he would be a great fit at 3C alongside someone to take the left side faceoffs.

What are your thoughts on Compher? Are there other players you’re interested in reading more about? Let me know in the comments!

(Stats per Natural Stat Trick)