Edmonton Oilers: Looking at expiring contracts – UFA edition

Continuing on the topic of expiring contracts, we look at how the Oilers will handle their UFAs or Unrestricted Free Agents. As you might guess, UFAs have no restrictions and can sign where they want to. The Edmonton Oilers have 11 UFAs, quite a bit. Let’s see where we’re going with this.

C/LW Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, expiring contract $6 million

This is the one player we’ll all be watching closely. Nuge is the longest-tenured Oiler, 10 years and 656 NHL games. He’s seen a rebuild or two in his time here.

The 28-year-old has 478 points in 656 games, plus another 14 points in 21 playoff games.
Most years he’s the #3 scorer on the team after the McDrai duo. He’s cracked the 20 goal mark 3 out of the last 4 seasons, missing out this year but only because of the shortened season. He finished with 16-19-35 and would’ve had 25 goals and 55 points in a normal 82 game season. He finished 5th on the team this year due to the stellar puck-moving of the Nurse-Barrie duo. They both outscored him.

Nuge was 5th on the team in ice time this year with 20:46 (I bet you can name the other 4 ahead of him for yourself). He was #2 in PP ice time next to Dr. Drai, narrowly edging out Connor Mcdavid at 4:13/game.

He took less than half the amount of faceoffs he took two seasons ago and fell from 50.74% in the faceoff circle to 45.63%, which is a bit disconcerting for a natural center who’s been around the league for 10 seasons.

He’s not a physical guy but did finish 10th on the team in blocked shots with 29 last year.

The big alarm people are raising with Nuge is the fact that 9 of his 16 goals this year were on the PP, as were 20 of his 35 points. The former mark is actually a career-high for him. Whether that’s good or bad depends on your philosophical bent.

To put that in perspective, that’s 56.25% of his goals on the PP and 57.14% of his points on the PP.

His +/- dipped a bit too, going from +1 2 seasons ago to -4 last season. That isn’t a reason to panic, IMO, but it is a bit worrisome.

Combine the red pen ticks with the fact that we’re running in a flat cap economy in the NHL and it seems to outsiders as if Nuge won’t get re-signed unless he takes a slight pay cut. He’s probably looking for a bit of a raise on his $6 million as a thank you for his years of service and many years of losing in the rebuild. Fair point, but the NHL is a “what have you done for me lately” business.

Fun fact – I once delivered food to Nuge’s house. True story.

This is my best guess as to how this will play out:

Chances he’s re-signed – 93%.

Look at all the free agents who are natural centers in the NHL. The list is pretty bad. Horrendous, really. If you look at the LWers who are free agents in the NHL, the list gets better, but still not as great as Nuge. It’d be naive to believe Washington isn’t re-signing Ovenchicken.

The same goes for Gabriel Landeskog in Colorado. Taylor Hall would be a nice re-addition at the position, but he’ll probably cost twice as much. Tomas Tatar would be comparable offensively, but he’s also two years older and not a long-term fit.

No way does Detroit let Jakub Vrana go after they traded Anthony Mantha for him at the deadline. Patrik Laine is staying put in Columbus, especially after they traded Dubois to the ‘Peg for him. The only other guy who might be a replacement would be Sam Bennett, and frankly, I wouldn’t want him as he’s still got years of Flames stink on him. So, Nuge is still the best option.

Predicted contract – 6 years, $33 million ($5.5 million per season).

This one is probably going to go deep into the off-season, IMO. In a flat cap economy, Nuge will probably have to swallow his pride and take a slight pay cut. He’s already publicly stated he wants to come back. There are replacements on the market, but are they as good as Nuge? Not over the long term. Any upgrades at the position will come at a much higher cost.

There have been dramatic rumors about negotiations with Nuge, but I would bet on him remaining an Oiler come next year, and retiring an Oiler. He wants to be here, and potential replacements don’t fit as well as he does for one reason or another. Plus, who wouldn’t want to play with the two biggest superstars in the NHL today? Nuge fits here and the team needs him. Get it done.

RW Alex Chiasson, expiring contract $2.1 million

Chiasson can thank a career year producing offence three seasons ago for this contract, because it’s not coming again. He proved that 2018-19 season in which he scored 22 goals was a total fluke.

Chiasson had his moments this year but wasn’t someone who really stood out in a huge way. He did re-invigorate his career somewhat, but was it enough to get another contract? I’m not convinced of that.

The bright spot for him is he carved out a role for himself as the net front presence on the PP. However, even this was tarnished a bit as Jesse Puljujarvi looks like he can perform that job as well or better than Chiasson did this year.

Chiasson finished the season 9-7-16 in 45 games this year. In a full 82 game season that would be 16 goals and 29 points.

So, good boxcars for a bottom six guy who can sub in in the top six for small stretches or injury replacements. But, hold on a minute. Five of those nine goals and seven of those 16 points were on the PP. That’s 56% and 43.75%. That means at evens he only produced 4-5-9.

We already have the much more expensive James Neal on the roster as a bottom six PP specialist guy. Does that make Chiasson redundant? Yeah, it might. It was a bit of a tell that in game four of the playoffs, Chiasson was scratched to make room for faster players. In the three games he did play, though, he did have a goal so that’s something.

Playing on the top PP unit as he does, Chiasson is fifth on the team in PP ice time/game at 2:59. That’s out of 12:29 overall per game. He spent no time on the PK at all. He’s not much of a physical player, blocking next to no shots and finishing 12th on the team in hits.

Also alarming is the fact that Chiasson was playing in the bottom six for most of the season and finished at -10, which is way down from the -3 he had the year before, and even worse than the -1 the year before that, which was down from the +1 in his career year. Three straight seasons of decreasing +/- playing soft competition? He might have just received his walking papers out of town. The Edmonton Oilers need more depth scoring, and in this day and age good defensive play creates scoring chances. Costing the Oilers scoring chances is counterproductive to that. I expect better from a nine season NHL veteran of 564 NHL games. Maybe age has caught up with him now. Certainly appears that way on paper.

Chances he’s re-signed – 20%. IMO the only way Chiasson comes back is if James Neal is bought out. Chiasson is 30 years old now, going to be 31 at the start of next season, and chances are good Holland can find a younger player who’s better defensively than Chiasson who can put up the same or more offence on a cheaper contract. With more even strength scoring to boot. I can’t see much of a chance he comes back next season.

Predicted contract – 1 year, $1.3 million

C/LW/RW Tyler Ennis, expiring contract $1,000,000

After Ennis came here from Ottawa at the trade deadline in 2020 for this year’s fifth rounder, he put up two goals and four points in nine games, and Holland re-signed him for one more year at the same rate.
This year was Ennis’s first full year with the Oilers, and although he got off to a good start 2 seasons ago in short sample size, his play dropped off a bit from what we were expecting. Not that you expect a bottom 6 forward to score at almost a 50% rate anyway, but a 25-30% rate shouldn’t be out of the question.

He wilted a little more against deeper bottom six depth which is disappointing. He was in and out of the lineup and on the taxi squad for stretches last season. He only ended up playing 30 of the 56 games in the bottom six this season. He posted rather pedestrian numbers for the Oilers last season, going 3-6-9 in those 30 games.

He does bring some physical play to the table, 10th on the team in hits last season with 43. He doesn’t play much on special teams for the Oilers.

He does have some defensive chops in the bottom six, finishing even on the season. He played on both the 3rd and 4th lines when he was in the lineup, even getting a game or two in the top six to fill in for injuries. Being able to play all three forward positions helps too.

However, he was just as vanilla in the playoffs as he was in the regular season, playing only two of the four playoff games and producing no offence. This is a step down from the play-in series with Chicago 2 seasons ago, in which he played three games and was 1-1-2 in those three games.

That in and of itself might be enough to bump him off the roster. He was a fairly vanilla bottom six type and those are easily replaceable from year to year.
Chances he’s re-signed – 40%. If Ennis comes back it’s because he’s decent defensively and at 31 years old can still contribute. He’s played in the NHL for 13 seasons and 643 games. Is that enough to bring him back? Hard to say. I could see Ennis coming back as an extra guy for next year, but IMO not as a regular to the lineup.

Predicted contract – one year, $1,000,000. Same as last year.

LW Joakim Nygard, expiring contract $875,000

Nygard was the other European experiment brought in to fill out his bottom six depth two seasons ago, and once again it was a miss. He has speed but he completely lacks the hands to play in the NHL.

Like Ennis and Haas, Nygard has wilted under the better depth on the team this year. He only played nine games all season, mostly on the fourth line, and produced zero offence. Even his +/- dipped to -2 from 0 two seasons ago.

As you would expect, he doesn’t do much of anything else with that few amount of games played.

Also a huge tell is unlike Haas who at least got some time in, Nygard was a healthy scratch in both of the Oiler’s playoff series the last two seasons. That’s a huge tell to what Dave Tippett thinks of him.

Chances he’s re-signed – 0%. We already know he’s not coming back, as the sweat wasn’t even dry on the players’ foreheads before this came out. Literally the same day Winnipeg beat us in triple OT that last game. Nygard was obviously working on this long beforehand, maybe they got the contract ready for him after he left to come here for training camp and all he had to do was sign it. Either way, it’s fine because we won’t miss him. Don’t expect the Oilers to mount some sort of challenge to the timing of the signing as Nygard isn’t important enough to bring back. It was a nice try for Holland but it didn’t pan out. It happens. Not the end of the world if a low-risk bet by a GM doesn’t work out.

Predicted contract – N/A

RW Patrick Russell, expiring contract $700,000

Boy, it just is raining forgettable bottom-six forwards the last few names, huh? We’ve gotten now to arguably the most invisible bottom 6 forward of them all – Patrick Russell.

Russell is best described as what is commonly called a “coke machine” of a player. This is a holdover from guys in the 80s and 90s who could hit and/or fight but not play any actual hockey. Russell has turned out to be such a player.

I heard he told Ken Holland in his exit interview last year that he was capable of more offence. Well, that hasn’t really materialized. He’s played 59 career NHL games and over that span has produced 0-7-7. Eight of those games were played last season, and he produced two of his seven assists in that span.

Russell didn’t even hit that much last season, only 13 hits and 10:38 of ice time in the whopping eight games he played.

As expected, he doesn’t play much on special teams. I suppose his 1 redeeming quality is his +/- rebounded to 0 from the -11 two seasons ago when he played the most amount of NHL games of his career.

Holland might bring him back, but I can’t see the justification for it now that the Oilers want to take the next step to winning a playoff series and bringing back coke machines isn’t going to do that.

Chances he’s re-signed – 5%. That’s probably a liberal number, and only because I can’t completely rule it out.

Predicted contract – 1 year, $750,000. Only because this is the NHL minimum salary for next season and that’s a big IF he gets another contract, which IMO he won’t.

Right D Adam Larsson, expiring contract $4.166666 million

Adam Larsson will always be remembered for being part of the Taylor Hall trade. At different times, both players were the ones that tilted the trade towards their current club. Hall has basically fallen off the map since he won the Hart trophy in the 2017-18 season. Both players have had problems staying healthy.

I’d say in the long run this one was a wash. Wouldn’t mind Hall back as an Oiler, but that’s probably wishful thinking as he’d cost too much and it’d be hard to find a roster spot for him, especially if Nuge is re-signed, which as I already indicated I think he will be.

Larsson’s role on the Oilers – and his calling card – is the ability to munch defensive minutes against tough competition while being good for a little bit of secondary offence on occasion. He certainly improved a bit upon last season, finishing 4-6-10 with a +2 in all 56 games. Last season was 1-5-6 with a 0 in 49 games.

He finished sixth on the team in ice time with 19:39 – as depth has improved on this club Larsson’s minutes have gone down. You probably won’t be surprised to learn that Larsson spends virtually no time on the PP and yet is second on the team in PK ice time with 2:18 per game – only Darnell Nurse spends more time on the PK and Josh Archibald is the only other guy with more than two minutes of ice time per game on the PK. Juhjar Khaira and Kris Russell come close, though, at 1:58 apiece.

He’s a pretty physical player too, leading the team in blocked shots with 128 and being second on the team in hits with 166 (only beaten by Josh Archibald).

He even managed to get some boxcars going in the playoffs, going 0-2-2 in the 4 games with a -4. I can’t really blame him for that last stat, considering how many of the games went to overtime. Oh, and because Tippett shortened his bench in the playoffs, Larsson’s ice time went up to 24:22 in the playoffs.

Accounting for all of that, you can see why Dave Tippett likes to put Larsson in the lineup. He’s not a flashy player but he plays valuable minutes and takes a lot of punishment that few others on the roster can duplicate at this time. I don’t anticipate him going anywhere at this point. Maybe once there’s another player who can take more of his minutes in the top 4, then Larsson might be gone. Until then, he’s definitely coming back.

Is there anyone else in the league that could take his spot? That list would be short, and even shorter when you’re looking at right D. Trying to find an upgrade at the spot would cost a lot more. However, with defensive d-man taking a lower profile in the league, combined with the flat cap world, expect Larsson to have to take a bit of a pay cut in order to stay here.

Chances he’s re-signed – 95%

Predicted contract – 4 years, $14.8 million (3.7 million per). Larsson may be 28 right now and can still play but guys who play like him end up taking a ton of punishment on their bodies, and as such you don’t want to sign him too far into his 30s. This contact would take him until 32.  I originally thought 5 years, but there’s a good chance he’s completely cooked by then with his role, so I curbed it to 4 years.

Right D Tyson Barrie, expiring contract $3.75 million

Normally a defenceman who leads the league in scoring amongst blueliners and is a shoo-in to be one of the finalists for the Norris trophy wouldn’t even be questionable in terms of re-signing.

However, this is a special situation (this is a story that is familiar to most if not all of you, so forgive me for the rehash). Barrie came here with his career on the downward slope after a terrible year in TO with the Leafs. Not much was forthcoming for him so he signed a cheap short term contract with the Oilers so he could play with the McDrai duo, gain his confidence back, and ultimately get a longer term, lucrative contract from another team.

Well, it worked and then some. He ended up with 8-40-48 in all 56 games last season with a +4 – the first time he’s been on the plus side of the ledger in six seasons. I think we all knew a bouceback was a pretty good possibility, but to lead the league in points for defencemen was not something any of us anticipated. As all GMs do with free agents, someone is bound to look at the surface and back up the Brinks truck.

However, look beyond the surface and there could be pause for anyone to sign him – even the Oilers, considering how much demand he’ll garner in the free agent market.  For one thing, there’s this. For another, there’s the flat cap. Third, his partner was usually Darnell Nurse, who finished with a +27. With Barrie’s improvement in +/- it’s worth asking how much of this improvement was because of Nurse and how much was because of Barrie himself.  I could look up the WOWY stats, I suppose, but honestly this blog is going to be long enough and with enough stats as it is.

So, between the McDrai duo and Nurse, it would be almost impossible for Barrie NOT to have a good season. Also, as good as Barrie is he’s also known for making the occasional suspect defensive read.  He’s a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde blue liner – he’ll give you lots of offence in the right situation, but he’s also just as likely to give up something as he is to give you something. Just because it worked out for him here doesn’t mean it’ll work out for him everywhere.

Also, it’s worth noting that Barrie’s offence dried up in the playoffs, as he went 0-1-1 in the 4 games against Winnipeg with a +1, which oddly enough is better defensively than the regular season, despite playing 30:28 per game. You’d expect better from a Norris Trophy candidate. As you would expect, Barrie spent next to no time on the PK and was 4th on the Oilers in PP time, at 3:30 per game. However, 1 thing that surprised me in writing this part of my blog is while Barrie isn’t much of a hitter, he was 4th on the team in blocked shots with 59. How about that? He can do something else besides move the puck well.

It’s also worth pointing out that Evan Bouchard deserves to be an everyday player, as IMO he showed this past season. Whether that’s in the third pairing or the second is up for debate, but there’s a good possibility he could be in the second pairing by the end of the season next year.

Sign both Barrie and Larsson and you effectively bury Bouchard in the short term. Also, if Oscar Klefbom comes back next year – which he just might – how do you spread around the minutes with three out of four top four guys as puck movers and one out of two in the third pairing? It’d be a juggling act, for sure – and lest we forget, Barrie was brought in to make up for the loss of Klefbom in the 1st place. If Klef comes back, wouldn’t that make Barrie redundant? Probably.

Signing Barrie (or not) might be Holland’s second most important off season decision next to bringing back Nuge.

Chances he’s re-signed – 30%.  Barrie fits in well on this team, but the likely story is because he’s one of the biggest names on the free agent market, he’s a luxury we can’t afford.  We don’t want to become Western Canada’s answer to the Leafs, do we? No. My strategy for Barrie has been unaltered with the passage of time – if he does sign a big money contract elsewhere at the beginning of free agency, good for him. But, if time ticks down and Barrie still doesn’t have a contract, then you see how he’s feeling later on in the off season and maybe bring him back for a modest amount. Same strategy we used for Kris Russell and his initial off season before coming here.

Projected contract – 3 years, $16.5 million ($5.5 million per). This is the max I could see Holland signs him for here – and again, that’s IF he signs here at all, which he probably won’t as he seems pretty committed to testing free agency.

Left D Dmitry Kulikov, expiring contract $1.15 million

Kulikov came to the Oilers at the trade deadline as a rental for a 2022 fourth-round pick that would’ve become a third had the Oilers beat Winnipeg. Nothing in his play suggested to me that that would change with the passage of time and games played.

Kulikov formed a pretty good shutdown pairing with Adam Larsson, but in fairness so did most of Larsson’s partners. Like Barrie, Kulikov is a bit suspect as a Jekyll and Hyde type, as the book on him is he is a good stay at home guy but is usually good for 1 mistake per game – and of course, it’s only a matter of time before some of those end up in the back of your net.

This likely explains why Kulikov is an ex-Winnipeg Jet now. He did his job but IMO that job can be done by younger players who are cheaper and better options long term. Kulikov’s boxcars are basically what you’d expect for him – 0-2-2 in 10 games played post-trade deadline with a +1 to boot. Most of the time he played on the second pairing.

Now he didn’t do a lot of physical work, but it’s worth nothing that he did finish 8th on the team in hits/60 at 7.1 (that seemed like a better stat to use considering the small regular season sample size we had to work with him) and 9th on the team in blocked shots/60 with 3.38.

Depending on how things go, his position could possibly be taken by Slater Koekkoek or William Laggeson, both of whom are more reliable and cheaper options for the roster spot. Kulikov’s playoffs were pretty much what you’d suspect – three games, no offense, -3.

Additionally, there was literally no time on the PP but he was used as a secondary option on the PK, likely the 2nd unit, with just over a minute per game in that regard. No surprises there, either.

I’d be surprised if he was brought back.

Chances he’s re-signed – 15%. From rental status, he has come and to free agency, he shall return.

Projected contract – 1 year, $1 million

Left/Right D Slater Koekkoek, expiring contract $850,000

The swiss army knife of the D corps, Koekkoek did whatever was asked of him. Sub in on the top pairing? Shutdown the opposition on the second pairing with Larsson? Done. Partner with Evan Bouchard and help clean up after his mistakes? Yup. Form a veteran third pairing duo with Kris Russell and shutdown the soft competition? Done.

Koekkoek, IMO, was one of – if not the – best depth defender the Oilers iced this past season. He had more partners than a player at a nightclub. I guess Holland’s motto on this one was “if you can’t beat ’em, sign ’em” as Koekkoek was instrumental 2 seasons ago at shutting the Oilers down in the playoffs as a member of the opposition Chicago Blackhawks.

Koekkoek started out the season as a regular but didn’t play at all between February 20 and May 15 as other players caught up to his play. That’s a long time to go between games, but Koekkoek did it. On the surface, his boxcars don’t warrant much as he finished 1-0-1 in 18 games with a -7, the latter mark of which was a career-low for him. Nonetheless, I think Koekkoek showed enough to come back – if a taxi squad is a thing again next season, IMO Koekkoek is a prime candidate for it. The fact that he can play both D sides is certainly a point in his favor.

As expected, he didn’t play at all on the PP, but put in 1:54 per game on the PK, like Kulikov a decent secondary option in the games he did play. This was part of about 13:10 per game total on the year. He doesn’t hit much but finished 9th on the team in blocked shots with 31 – and in a total shock to me was first on the team in blocked shots/60 with 7.84. Perhaps his penchant for blocking shots every game might be good enough to get him another contract.

He played all four games in the playoffs and had one assist. He’s always been a part-time NHLer in his career, never once playing a full NHL season but still putting up a career of 167 games over eight NHL seasons. He could be that guy again next season, IMO. Easily replaceable, but not enough reason to dismiss him out of hand for my money.

Chances he’s re-signed – 50%

Projected contract – 1 year, $850K

G Mike Smith, expiring contract $1.5 million

Oh, if only it were Mikko Koskinen’s contract expiring and not Mike Smith’s. Smith’s season is a testament to two moves the Oilers made at goalie – losing out in the Jacob Markstrom sweepstakes and re-signing Smith.

While Markstrom was as mediocre as ever for Calgary, Smith surprised pretty much everyone – myself included – by putting up a season that had him just a shade under Vezina trophy consideration. Too bad they could only nominate three goalies, Smith likely would’ve been next in line.

He injured himself in training camp so his season didn’t get off to a good start. But, once he got back he was gold. He ended up setting a career-high in sv% with .923, past the elite mark, and the third-best GAA of his career with 2.31.

All at the age of 39, when most NHLers are either wrapping up their careers or already retired. Although his numbers in the playoffs weren’t as good as they were in the regular season, he still rebounded nicely from the 1 disastrous game he had against Chicago 2 seasons ago. In the playoffs, he was .912 with a 2.40 GAA.

Those numbers could’ve been much worse considering three of the four games went to OT, with one game going to triple OT. That’s a lot of hard minutes for a goaltender, but Smith hung in there, almost matching the reigning Vezina Trophy winner save for save. Can’t ask much more from your goaltender than that.

Who knows how the Oilers will do next year in the playoffs, but one thing we know for sure – Smith will be in net. He’s not the long-term solution – after all, how much longer can he keep up this play at his age? But, he’s a good option for next season, and he’ll be the 1 constant in what will likely be some changes in net for the Oilers – Koskinen may get bought out or exposed in the Seattle expansion draft.

Chances he’s re-signed – 100%. In his year-end address, Holland publicly said he’s bringing Smith back. So we know he’ll be back.

Projected contract – 1 year, $2.5 million

Bonus material

Congratulations to the Buffalo Sabres, who just won the NHL draft lottery recently. Maybe that’ll soothe Jack Eichel’s jangled nerves.

I don’t think about who goes first overall in the draft anymore since the Oilers stopped being contenders for the draft lottery, but one of the guys could be Defenceman Owen Power, currently playing for Team Canada in the IIHF world hockey championships. The Sabres are a mess all over and they could certainly use the help. That’ll be an interesting draft because it’s being made on shorter sample sizes due to all the junior leagues shortening or forfeiting their seasons due to the pandemic.

Also, a genuine congratulations to the Oilers farm team, the Bakersfield Condors, who just won the Pacific Division title over the Henderson Silver Knights (Vegas’s farm team). The AHL playoff structure was incredibly bizarre this year. Only the Pacific division had playoffs, and the division series was as far as it went. Their league championship, the Calder Cup, will simply not be awarded this year.

Look for goalie Stuart Skinner, as well as wingers Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody – among the top scorers in the AHL last season – to be given serious consideration to be Oilers in training camp next season.

I also have to believe that the one and only callup from the season, Ryan Mcleod, has a spot on the roster that’s his to lose. He showed promise in the 10 regular-season games he played, and Dave Tippett made the gutsy move to play him in the playoffs against Winnipeg. He wouldn’t have done that for nothing.