Edmonton Oilers: Looking at expiring contracts – RFA edition
It’s a good time now to take a look at all the expiring contracts the Edmonton Oilers need to be dealing with.
Let’s start with the RFA’s – or restricted free agents, for those who don’t know. Restricted free agents are still under team control due to not qualifying for full free agency yet. Maybe they’re not 27, which is the age at which NHL players are allowed to be unrestricted free agents. Maybe they haven’t played enough games yet to qualify.
Restricted free agents have a hard deadline that the Oilers must have tended what’s called a QO – or qualifying offer. This is only the opening salvo in negotiations, but due to the fact the incumbent club has more control, RFAs will need to have an offer sheet tended to them by other teams, and sign it themselves.
This is rarely done due to the extensive compensation needed to pay to the incumbent club. It’s usually used to target top 6 forwards or top-pairing defencemen due to the fact that it only works if the incumbent club doesn’t match the offer sheet, so the compensation must be worth it and the offer needs to be something the incumbent club wouldn’t match.
Now, let’s look at this year’s edition of RFA sweepstakes. It’s all forwards, no D or goalies are RFAs.
C/LW Jujhar Khaira expiring contract $1.2 million cap hit
Khaira started out the season invisible just as he ended the last one. After being humbled by time on the taxi squad and as a healthy scratch, and being in and out of the lineup, he eventually worked himself into Dave Tippett’s good books and became a bottom 6 regular again. He became the big body that provides physical play, some secondary scoring, good defensive prowess against soft competition, and penalty killing.
Noteworthy is the fact his +/- was bettered from -19 2 seasons ago to -1 last season. He finished tied for 4th with Kris Russell in PK TOI/game on the team with 1:58. Khaira ended up with 3-8-11 in 40 games last season. In a full 82 game season, that works out to 6 goals and 22 points.
That’s decent for a 3rd line center, and solid for a 4th line center. He even carried that over into the playoffs, notching a goal in the 4 games and putting himself on the board for depth scoring in the playoffs. Expect him to be a 4th line center next season if the Oilers can find someone to succeed where Kyle Turris failed last season, at 3rd line center. Formed a good line with Josh Archibald and at different times, Zack Kassian or Alex Chiasson.
Chances he get’s re-signed – 90%. Khaira ended the season favorably with Dave Tippett, so as long as he maintains or betters the play he had this season he’ll be a full-time player in the bottom 6.
Predicted contract – 2 years, $2.64 million (1.32 million per). Bottom 6’ers aren’t going to make big money, this is the mandatory 10% raise for him, that’s it.
LW/RW/C Dominik Kahun, expiring contract $975,000
Kahun was very much a utility player for the Oilers last season. He played up, down, and out of the lineup at different times. He was brought in because of his childhood chemistry with fellow German Leon Draisaitl, but that chemistry never materialized in the bigs.
Towards the end of the season he did, however, show chemistry with both Connor Mcdavid and Nuge. That could be what brings him back, as not everyone has chemistry with Connor Mcdavid.
The Oilers could use some cheap scoring help so they don’t become the Toronto Maple Leafs, easily the most top-heavy team in the league who every year can only make the playoffs and then choke in the 1st round. Kahun could provide that (the scoring help, I mean, not the choking. The Leafs don’t need any help with that).
He doesn’t play a whole lot on special teams so he’ll have to provide scoring at even strength. He produced 9-6-15 in 48 games last season with a -3 to boot, the latter mark of which is a career low for him and the only season he’s produced on the wrong side of the +/- ledger.
But, he’s probably faced the toughest competition of his career with the time he spent on the 1st line so that would probably explain it – and the fact that he only finished -3 shows he does have some skill in his own end.
By the way, in a full 82 game season, that scoring rate is 15 goals and 26 points – that’s not nothing and solid depth scoring numbers for Kahun. If we do go back to 82 games, maybe he can even improve on that with more time with Mcdavid. 20 goals wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility.
At this point in his career, he is what he is – a complementary player that won’t drive his own line but clean up after the big dogs are finished, and can at least tread water against tough competition.
Does the fact that Dave Tippett only played him in 2 out of the 4 playoff games and sat him for the last 2 play into a decision? How about the fact he produced no offence at all? Possibly, but you must take it with a grain of salt as it was his maiden voyage in the playoffs.
Could Ken Holland find an upgrade at the roster spot? Probably. At the same price point? Unlikely. Kahun is the type of unheralded, inexpensive signing Holland loves to make to fill out his roster, and will be especially valuable in the flat cap world.
The fact he plays all 3 forward positions doesn’t hurt, either.
IMO Kahun showed enough last season that he deserves to be back. Does he have more to give? You bet. I’d like to see what he does for an encore.
If he stinks, you can bury most of cap hit in the minors, put him on waivers with a pretty good chance somebody will take him, or buy him out inexpensively.
Chances he gets re-signed – 60%. When Ken Holland meets with Connor Mcdavid, I’m willing to bet he asks him about Kahun and whether or not he wants him back. They seemed to play well together so I’m willing to bet he’s back.
Projected contract – 3 years, $3.2175 million ($1.0725 million per).
C/RW Kailer Yamamoto, expiring contract $894,166
Yamamoto broke through 2 seasons ago, allowing the Oilers to spread the superstar wealth over 2 lines for the first time in a long time.
I was excited to see what he could do in a full season, and while he didn’t have the luster of last season, he did have a fairly solid season nonetheless. Hey, very few NHLers develop in a straight line, and this winger will only be 23 before training camp starts. The organization is very high on him, and I can’t blame them because he has a good toolbox.
He doesn’t play a lot on special teams, so like Kahun, he has to produce at even strength to be useful.
Yamamoto finished at 8-13-21 in 52 games last season. In an 82 game season that’s 12 goals and 33 points. Not sexy numbers but they will likely improve with more experience. He’s only 105 games into his career so far and while he’s not elite yet he could turn into that 2 or 3 seasons down the road. Also important to note that his shooting % 2 seasons ago in his debut was 25%. That’s not sustainable and predictably came crashing down to 11.6% last season.
His +9 is down from last season’s +17, but I won’t split hairs as that’s still on the right side of the ledger. Yamamoto isn’t a hugely physical player but he was still top 10 on the team in both hits and blocked shots last season. He’s most well known for his chemistry with Leon Draisaitl. He was also 10th on the team in ice time at 16:22 per game.
I see Yamamoto as a future version of Martin St. Louis or Theo Fleury – the small sniper who plays above his weight class. I can’t wait to see what he does in his prime.
He’s just exiting his ELC, and his performance this season will net him nothing more than a bridge contract. He made small progress in his playoff performance by putting up an assist in the Winnipeg series, which was 1 more point than he had in his playoff debut against Chicago 2 seasons ago. Look for that to improve with experience as well.
Chances he gets re-signed – 100%. There’s no question in my mind. Yamamoto is beloved by the players and Tippett. He’s a homegrown Oiler and that’s not changing for the next 2-3 seasons at least.
Projected contract – 3 years, $3 million ($1 million per season). This is a shade higher than what the 10% maximum would be, and Holland isn’t stupid he sees an opportunity for a cheap top 6 winger and I guarantee you he’ll take it. This could be one of the NHL’s best bargain contracts by the last season.
LW/C/RW Devin Shore, expiring contract $700,000
Devin Shore was a great story this year. He was brought in on a PTO, and Holland kept him seemingly because he had some injuries to start the season. Shore was like a bottom 6 utility knife, in and out of the lineup and seemed to answer the bell when called upon. He was playing everywhere in the bottom 6 – center, both wings, 3rd line, 4th line. Whatever Dave Tippett needs of him, he does.
He won’t be an offensive dymano but he’ll put up enough offence to be a 4th liner or sub in on the 3rd line if necessary. He put up 5-4-9 in 38 games last year, in a full 82 game season that would be 11 goals and 19 points, solid production for a 4th liner and decent enough for a 3rd liner. It’s worth nothing that the only other 2 seasons in which he played a full 82 game season – both with Dallas – he had 13-20-33 and 11-21-32 in those 2 seasons.
Shore is a bit questionable defensively which is why you can’t play him in the top 6. Nonetheless, he’s OK, finishing -4 last season, which is where the average of his career is.
It’s short sample size of only 108 of them, but he also seems to have a talent for faceoffs, finishing at 52.78%. He does a little bit of PK – 1:11 per game, good enough for 10th on the team in that department. Good hitter – he was tied with Zack Kassian on the team for 6th with 73.
If the Oilers get a bit better in their depth as I suspect, then Shore would probably be a solid option for extra forward. Of course, if he survives training camp I could see him start the season on the 4th line as well.
Chances he gets re-signed – 50%. Bottom 6 forward is always the most volatile spot on the team – it’s easy to get replaced. A lot of this depends on what other players Holland brings in. There’s arguments to sign him and arguments not to.
Projected contract – 1 year, $770,000. The minimum and that’s it.
Bonus material
For those of you lamenting the Oilers getting swept by Winnipeg in the 1st round – and it stinks, don’t get me wrong – think about this. You could be a Leafs’ fan right now.
The Oilers weren’t the only Canadian favorite to get upset by their lower-seeded brethren as Montreal beat the Leafs 4 games to 3.
I looked into this – they’ve never made it past the 1st round once in the Auston Matthews era in TO. And although I didn’t watch any of the TO-Habs series, from what I hear TO put in a lackluster effort in the last 2 games. At least the Oilers can point to 2017 in the Connor Mcdavid era, when they beat San Jose in round 1 and defeated in the 2nd round by Anaheim. The Leafs can’t even say that. They haven’t won a playoff series since Pat Quinn was the GM. Over a decade ago.
I don’t know about you, but personally, I’d rather be an Oilers fan than a Leafs fan right now. I’d rather be Ken Holland than Kyle Dubas right now, as the Oilers will be exiting cap hell now and Holland will have some room to make some great moves. What that looks like remains to be seen, but we’ll sure find out by the time training camp rolls around.
Dubas, on the other hand, has a team full of chokers who gave up with 2 games left in the series. At least the Oilers always played their best from games 1-4.
If I was a betting man, I’d say William Nylander is likely as good as gone from TO, they need to dump his cap hit so they’ve got room to sigh some decent depth guys. Oh, and all of TO’s LTIR cap space is evaporating. The Tavares contract isn’t going anywhere. I knew they’d come to regret that one as soon as it was signed, and I’m betting they wish they have a cheaper option at that spot so they can retool the team.
And if you think it’s bad that the Oilers are missing 3 picks in this year’s draft, the Leafs are missing 4 picks – and they traded away their 1st round pick at the deadline. To rent Nick Foligno. Let me repeat that for emphasis.
They traded away their 1st round pick.
To rent a depth player for the playoffs.
I don’t know about you, but if I was the GM of a team, I wouldn’t trade away a 1st round pick for a depth player. Oh, and did I mention he was playing on the 4th line by the end of the playoffs?
Brilliant asset management (sarcasm alert). If that player was Alex Ovechkin, that would be one thing, but not Nick Foligno.
Personally, I feel much more optimistic about the future of the Oilers. There’s potential there. The Leafs, I think we’re looking at their present and future for years to come. A top-heavy team that chokes in the playoffs.
Oh, but “Connor Mcdavid isn’t going to put up with this much longer” as the TO media slings at us. Right. How much longer is Auston Matthews going to put up with the Leafs?