Edmonton Oilers: Stacking up against other Canadian teams in the East
Here’s a look at how the Edmonton Oilers stacks up against other Canadian teams in the East
Welcome to the start of my new mini-series of blogs. It’ll be a 3 part series that focuses on how the Edmonton Oilers will do in a Canadian division. I’ll focus on the 3 teams in the East this time around – Montreal, Toronto, and Ottawa. IMO the Oilers actually stack up pretty well against all the teams in a Canadian division overall. But let’s break it down to the individual elements and take a closer look.
Now it’s important to remember that the season is still ~ 1.5 months away as of this writing if everything holds up. This means that trades and/or free agent signings may still happen. Also, training camps definitely will happen.
However, this time of year would normally be about August – a typically dead time during the NHL offseason where not much happens. So, although we can’t discount the possibility of major surgery being done to a roster, for the most part, other than minor changes rosters will be more or less set.
Montreal Canadiens
Top 6 forward
Montreal’s top 6 I can best describe as…..solid, if unimpressive. They had 3 20 goal scorers on the roster from last year (I include newcomer Tyler Toffoli in that category as he scored 20 goals between LA and Vancouver). No one in Montreal hit the point per game mark. Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher, and the aforementioned Toffoli will lead the way next year but none of these players will move the needle on the team themselves. Tomas Tatar finished the highest up on the totem pole in the NHL last season, and still, he was only 36th in the league.
As for the rest? Well, the other newcomer is Josh Anderson. Acquired from Columbus in a trade for Max Domi, I can’t figure out why the Habs would trade these 2 for each other as they seem like basically the same player.
The only reason I could possibly think of is Domi regressed last season from 2 seasons ago and as is Montreal’s tradition when that happens the media and fans drive you out of town. Philip Danault is the #1 center, and although he’s elite at faceoffs he’ll never be elite at anything else. Nick Suzuki is the 2nd line center, and he’s only entering his 2nd season in the league so it’s tough to say what you have with him.
I guess what I’m trying to say is Montreal lacks truly elite skill in their top 6. Tatar finished a spot below Nuge, who is the Oiler’s #3 scorer from last season. That tells you all you need to know. The Oilers, of course, are anchored by the McDrai duo.
Newcomer Dominik Kahun, who had chemistry with Dr. Drai in youth hockey, forms what should be an even better line with Kailer Yamamoto that was incredibly formidable last season as it was. Rounding it out for the Oilers, it’s Nuge paired with Mcdavid and power forward Zack Kassian. That’s a pretty good 1st line.
Winner: Oilers
Bottom 6 forward
Looks like Jonathan Drouin has been banished to the bottom 6 unless Toffoli falters next season. An unfortunate fate for a $5.5 million cap hit, but we have James Neal so I feel your pain Montreal. Didn’t they trade Mikhail Sergachev for him, though? Ouch. Drouin was limited to 27 games last season, so I assume injury and not healthy scratches.
Next is Jesperi Kotkaniemi, a young guy who hopefully better days are ahead for. He did have 13 points in 13 games in the AHL last season, for whatever that’s worth. Joel Armia, 16-14-30 in 58 games last season, solid bottom 6 numbers. Then on the 4th line, you have banished port winger Paul Byron, who put up 10 points in 29 games and 4 points in 10 playoff games for Montreal. They’re paying him $3.4 million for 3 more seasons to do it, though. Pity, Montreal. A 1 time 20 goal scorer, he’s now playing on the 4th line.
4th line C is Ryan Poehling, a 21-year-old who’s entering a contract year and the last year of a 2 way contract. He only put up 1-1-2 in 27 games. Hopefully, he takes a step forward next season for his own sake, with numbers that like that he won’t have a long NHL career. If he keeps up that average points per game pace he’ll have a whopping 6 points – in a full 82 game season. Rounding it out – Artturi Lehkonen, who put up 13-14-27 in 70 games last season, solid for a 4th liner.
If Drouin can stay healthy and Kotkaniemi can take a step forward, they in combination with Armia and Lehkonen might actually add some decent secondary scoring to the roster. Compare this to the Oilers, who will have quite a formidable bottom 6. A 3rd line of Tyler Ennis-Kyle Turris-Jesse Puljujarvi should each pull in 25-30 points apiece especially against soft competition.
Because the Oilers have better depth on the 4th line, it’ll probably go something like this – James Neal-Jujhar Khaira-Josh Archibald/Alex Chiasson. Waiting in the wings will be Gaetan Haas and Joakim Nygard. Montreal’s got Jordan Weal waiting in the wings, a decent enough bottom 6 player if a bit vanilla with 15 points in 49 games last season, and the yet to be signed Charles Hudon – 1-1-2 in 15 games last season. Meh.
2 legit wingers in the bottom 6 aren’t going to cut it, as far as I’m concerned. The bottom 6 will be better for the Habs should Kotkaniemi take a step forward and Jonathan Drouin stays healthy, but neither of those things is guaranteed. The guys waiting in the wings are nothing special.
The Oilers 3rd line is all capable of putting up 25-30 points, which already pretty much beats Montreal and that’s not including the fact that James Neal is an elite PP producer who is bound to put up another 15-20 goals and 30 points. Whether Archibald or Chiasson takes the last spot doesn’t matter, both are good for about 20 points or so if last season is any indication. Haas and Nygard already beat out Weal and Hudon.
Winner: Oilers
Defence
Shea Weber and Ben Chiarot lead the charge for Montreal. They put up 57 points between the 2 of them last year, pretty much what I see for the Oilers top pairing of Darnell Nurse-Ethan Bear. Bear has yet to be signed but he’ll be done, book it. However, at 35 it’s fair to ask how long Shea Weber can keep up the pace he’s at. At a shade under a $7.9 million cap hit for another 6 seasons, Montreal better hope it’s for the long haul otherwise that contract will be a boat anchor that weighs them down for years to come.
Jeff Petry is a fine d-man who has put up 40 points the last 3 seasons and at 32 I don’t expect that to stop anytime soon. Enjoy him, Montreal, you snaked him from us years ago. You’re welcome. Newcomer Joel Edmundson is nothing to write home about, as his career year was last year with Carolina at 20 points. 72 PIMs, though, so safe to say he’ll be batting cleanup after Petry and clearing space for him with hits – he’s 6″4′, 215 lbs.
The Oilers 2nd pairing is Caleb Jones-Adam Larsson. Larsson I could see putting up 15-20 points if he can stay healthy, which last year he didn’t. Jones will be a newcomer to the top 4, having put up 9 points in 43 games as a part-time 3rd pairing guy. I bet Jones will put up 20 points or so. The Oilers will miss Oscar Klefbom at even strength to an extent, but I believe this quartet can overcome those minutes by committee.
Here’s the rub, though – new PP quarterback Tyson Barrie – who will be playing 3rd pairing minutes at evens and prime 1st unit PP minutes – is good for 30 points conservatively. Kris Russell – again assuming he can stay healthy – should be good for 15 or so. On Montreal’s bottom pairing, Brett Kulak is probably good for 10 points, while rookie Alexander Romanov will be joining them on the right side from the KHL. Romanov has only put up 7 points in 43 games as a career-high in the KHL. Using NHLe, we can project him out to 11 points here.
If he falters, Victor Mete rounds out the 7th man slot, good for maybe 10 points or so – he has 171 career NHL games so this season will show you for sure what you have in him. Only 22, though, so he still has a ways to go before his PPY.
The Oilers likely 7th man this year is William Laggeson, currently tearing it up in Sweden with 9 points in 11 games. Yeah, yeah, sample size, etc., but if we use NHLe for that, that comes up as 40 points. Probably not going to happen as a 7th d-man, but would 15 points be more reasonable? Probably. Although Montreal can produce more in the top 4, the Oilers have a better depth which then tips the scales in their direction.
Winner: Oilers
Special teams: Last season – Oilers PP, #1, Montreal, 22. Not a shocker to me. Oilers PK, #2, Montreal, 19. If results go the same way as last season – which IMO they will – then this is no contest.
Winner: Oilers
Goaltending
I had to look again to be sure, but yes Mikko Koskinen did beat Carey Price in sv% last season, .917 to .909. Although, if his pattern of previous years rings true, Price will do an otherworldly job this year, going back to elite status or close to it. At 33, he could be starting to slow down, which is worrisome given his $10.5 million a year cap hit for 6 seasons. He’s certainly more inconsistent than he was when he was younger. GAA was not much different, Price was 2.79 while Koskinen was 2.75.
He’s going to platoon with Jake Allen, an elite goalie with St. Louis last year with a .927 sv%. Also had a stingy 2.15 GAA. Although this tandem will have the dubious distinction of being the most expensive duo in the NHL, IMO it’s worth the money. Allen should be able to spell off Price when he doesn’t do so well.
And the Oilers, after losing out on Markstrom, went after……old balls Mike Smith…..again. Ugh. You’d think a swiss cheese playoff performance and a .902 sv% with a 2.95 GAA would’ve been enough to send Smith packing.
Nope. Well, at least his contract is only about half of what it was last season. Expect the same performance from him, can’t expect miracles from a 38-year-old goalie. Despite the monumental cost, IMO Montreal takes this one easily. It’s cap space well spent.
Winner: Habs
Toronto Maple Leafs
Top 6 forward
The Leafs top 6 is impressive, and it better be because top 6 forward is where the Leafs have spent almost half their cap space. That’s right – Between Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander, they are spending $40.489 million a year for those 4 guys. That’s just over $250K shy of the halfway mark.
Is it worth it? Depends on how you look at it. Kyle Dubas has been a magician and had the benefit of LTIR to keep him from cap consequences until last season, but now his chickens may have come home to roost. He’s had to say goodbye to useful players this past offseason because the Leafs just can’t afford them – and they’re still $1 million+ over the cap at the time of this writing.
Individually, the 4 aforementioned players are impressive. Matthews had 47 goals and 80 points in 70 games last year, while Marner had 16 goals and 67 points in 59 games last year, Tavares 26 goals and 60 points in 63 games. Nylander had 31 goals and 59 points in 68 games.
Interestingly enough, it takes the 1st 3 of those players to tie the production of Dr. Drai and Connor Mcdavid combined. So, you can probably see where this is going.
Rounding out the top 6 for TO is Russian Ilya Mikheyev, who put up 8-15-23 in 39 games last year. Not super impressive, and probably about the best they could afford. Expect about the same for him this season. Then there’s also Zack Hyman, who put up 21-16-37 in 51 games last season. Solid enough. Not superstar quality, but solid enough.
With the extra guy free as opposed to TO, the Oilers have more upside. While TO’s production is pretty much set it stone, the Oilers have some room to move. Expect Yamamoto to improve upon last season’s 11-15-26 in 27 games.
If he can maintain the same PPG average, then in an 82 game season he’ll put up 79 points, which is pretty good – adjust accordingly for an abbreviated season during the pandemic. Dominik Kahun should make the line with Dr. Drai even better, which is awesome considering Dr. Drai led the league in scoring last year.
Connor Mcdavid was injured part of last year, so he should get back up to 100 points himself if he can stay healthy. Nuge and Connor McDavid have paired well in the past, and so expect them to do so again. Can a start in Nuge playing with a superstar push the star’s boxcars past the PPG mark? IMO, yes.
He was only 4 points shy of that last season, and remember he had to play on the 2nd line last season. Zack Kassian will do his thing and give you another 30 point season. If Jesse Puljujarvi comes to play on the 1st line partway through the year, expect that 1st line to get even better. Kahun himself? IMO 20 goals is not a stretch for him this year. This is a case of the Leafs top 6 is good, but the Oilers has better depth and more upside.
Winner: Oilers
Bottom 6 forward
Half of TO’s bottom 6 forwards are new this year, so it’ll be tough to give them the nod in this category. Alexander Kerfoot is a solid bottom 6 guy but when you consider he fell from grace last season as his point totals fell by ~ 25%, that’s not a good thing. Still, 28 points is good for a bottom 6 forward. The Leafs better hope so as $3.5 million is a bit much for a bottom 6 guy.
Jason Spezza is back as 4th line C, and at 37 he’s doing about what you could expect him to – 9-16-25 last season. Decent, but of course he’s not the same player he used to be. Good value for 700K. Nick Robertson is back for the Leafs after being called up for their play-in series last season, putting up 1 goal in 4 games. He’s in his rookie season at 19 years old, so hard to say how he’ll do at this point, he’s a bit of a wildcard.
As for the newcomers, Joe Thornton is coming to TO as a bottom 6 forward. He was a defensive mess last year in San Jose, finishing at -19 but with 7-24-31 in 70 games. Logic says he’ll likely be better on a better team in TO, but that’s far from certain. Jimmy Vesey comes from Buffalo last season, where he put up 9-11-20 in 64 games, with a +12.
Is he there to clean up after Jumbo Joe’s defensive mistakes? Probably. Decent production from a 3rd liner. Gritty guy Wayne Simmonds was brought into TO after playing in New Jersey and Buffalo last season, putting up 8 goals and 24 points in 68 games last year. He’s not what he once was but he can probably still give you 25 points. Not great defensively, though – -17 in Jersey and -4 in Buffalo – so I hope Spezza and Robertson are prepared to pick up the slack in that regard.
The extra guy will be Travis Boyd, an unimpressive AHL bubble player with 31 career points in 85 NHL games over the past 3 seasons. Much like in the top 6, I’m going to say this bottom 6 is good but the Oilers is better. The Oilers have more depth in their bottom 6, more firepower, and a better quality of player than the Leafs do. Also, the Oilers bottom 6 has 30% less turnover and more experience playing together, thus fewer question marks about chemistry and meshing.
Winner: Oilers
Defence
Both teams have very similar top 4s: no big names on either roster, but a solid top 4. Morgan Reilly is the guy who really holds that team together, although his GP went down from 82 2 seasons ago to 47 last season, and likewise, his boxcars nosedived from 20-52-72 to 3-24-27. Considering he’s 26 with over 500 NHL games, it’s safe to assume that the 72 point season is an aberration rather than a new normal. Let’s put him down for 30 points, considering the way the rest of his career has gone.
His partner is newcomer TJ Brodie, a solid signing. He had a bad season last year in Calgary but should bounce back in TO with a 30 point season, IMO. Jake Muzzin has regressed a bit from his days as an LA King but still a decent player. Let’s put him down for 20 points. His partner will be Justin Holl, a recent promotion from the bottom pairing who we could safely put down for 15 points as we don’t know how he will respond yet to extra minutes and responsibility.
On the bottom pairing, you have a bland, vanilla guy in Travis Dermott, we could safely put him down for 13 points. Newcomer Zack Bogosian will be coming over from the Stanley Cup champs Tampa Bay and considering he hasn’t put up boxcars of any significance in quite awhile I don’t really consider him to put up much more than 5 points.
Making things interesting is the 3rd pairings of both teams. Although the top 4 of the Leafs should outscore the top 4 of the Oilers, considering that Tyson Barrie will conservatively put up 30 points cleaning up on the Oilers potent PP and Kris Russell will likely add another 15 when you consider that the point totals are pretty close, and the difference between them is negligible. There are lots of different factors that could tilt this thing towards 1 team or the other.
Winner: None, it’s a tie. The projections are close enough let’s just call it a wash.
Special teams: Last season – Oilers #1 PP, Leafs 6. Close, but no cigar. Oilers #2 PK, Leafs 21.
Winner: Oilers. That PK is a real killer for the Leafs, and I don’t see anything that moves the needle much on it this upcoming season.
Goaltending
Another surprise – Koskinen beat Anderson too in sv% .917 to Anderson’s .909. Considering how Anderson’s career has done in TO, though, let’s call last season a blip on the radar screen. His 2.85 GAA I also expect him to improve upon. A little higher than Koskinen’s 2.75 but nothing to be too concerned about.
Most of his career in TO Anderson has been just this side of elite, and although it’s a short sample size Jack Campbell has shown good things as a Leaf. He should platoon nicely with Anderson, but having only played 64 NHL games is a bit of a concern. Either way, he’s a low-risk bet at $1.65 million a year. Certainly a better option than old balls Mike Smith, who I already made my feelings about clear when I looked at Montreal.
Winner: Leafs
*Cue the onslaught of Leafs fans to lynch me*
Ottawa Senators
Top 6 forward
Remember how it took the top 3 of TO’s forwards to equal the McDrai duo? Well, considering the Sens are the 1 Canadian team actively rebuilding right now, it’ll take like their top 5 scorers to get to 1 point below the McDrai duo, and remember 1 of those is Jean-Gabriel Pageau who is now a New York Islander.
As you would expect, a lot of Ottawa’s top 6 is futures that haven’t 100% cashed in their potential yet. Only 1 player in their top 6 is past the age of 30, Evgeni Dadonov. Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris are both still on their ELCs. The 1st line of Tkachuk-Norris-Dadonov are all 20 goal 40 point scorers. The 2nd line of Tierney-White-Brown put up points of 37, 23, and 43 respectively. In time Brady Tkachuk may turn into a franchise forward, but he’s not there yet. This top 6 is as much of a work in progress as you’d expect.
Winner: Oilers
Bottom 6 forward
Alex Galchenyuk is a guy the Sens are taking a flyer on. He’ll be the top producer on the 3rd line, probably with 15-20 points. His linemates are Logan Brown and Drake Batherson, who are young and inexperienced and as you would guess are 5-10 point players right now.
Oddly enough, the 4th line outscores the 3rd line. Ex-top 6 forward Artem Anisimov is the 4th line center, with Nick Paul, who put up 20 points last year, on his left, and Austin Watson, a newcomer from Nashville, put up 14 points in 53 games. Put down AA for the same 20 points as Paul. Still, none of these players hold a candle to their counterparts on the Oilers.
Winner: Oilers
Defence
Thomas Chabot is the anchor of the Sens corps with 39 points in 71 games last year. After him, it’s a big dropoff. His partner is ex-Leaf Nikita Zaitsev, who put up 1-11-12 in 58 games last year. Newcomer Erik Brannstrom is at the left side of the 2nd pairing – he put up 23 points in 27 AHL games but comes with risk as he has only played 33 NHL games so far, 31 of those last season with the Sens where he put up 0-4-4 and a -9.
His partner, Josh Brown, thus far only an AHL bubble player who has put up no more than 8 points in a season – in 56 games. Rounding out the D in the bottom pairing is leftie Christian Wolanin, who must’ve been through injury last year as he only played 12 games, 9 of which were on Ottawa’s farm team. He’s played a whopping 43 career NHL games, putting up 5-10-15 in that time. Very generic bottom pairing guy.
Kris Russell can put up that much offence in 1 season. Rounding out the D corps is a physical stay at home d-man Erik Gudbranson, who will be coming into Ottawa having split time between Pittsburgh and Anaheim. He’s only cracked the 10 point mark once in his career so that tells you all you need to know about his puck-moving ceiling. He’s adequate enough for a rebuilding team, I guess.
Hard to put a number on the offense this group might produce but it reminds me of similar Oiler corps during the early days of the decade of darkness. Fortunately, the dark days are over for the Oilers and just beginning for the Sens.
I’d go through the extra guys, but what’s the point? If the regulars aren’t going to save Ottawa, the extra guys won’t or they wouldn’t be extra guys. The only thing worth mentioning about them is 1 of them shares a name with CFL all-star QB Mike Reilly.
Winner: Oilers
Special teams: Pretty much what you’d expect. Ottawa finished dead last in the league on the PP last season, at #31. Oilers are the polar opposite at #1. On the PK? 28th in the league, as opposed to the Oilers #2.
Winner: Do you even have to ask? The Sens get buried in an oil slick here. Don’t expect either special teams unit to make much progress for Ottawa right now.
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Goaltending
Post-retirement of Craig Anderson, Ottawa promptly shelled out what looks like at this point a solid prospect in Jonathan Gruden and a 2nd round pick to Pittsburgh for Matt Murray, who struggled so badly last season that he lost his starting position to Tristan Jarry.
And that’s not even the worst part. They then backed up the brinks truck to Murray by paying him $6.25 million a season for 4 seasons. Let me repeat that – he lost his starting position last season and didn’t even make the cut as an average NHL goalie.
The Sens went ahead and rewarded Murray for failure, something that in this day and age is a really bad idea. Not to mention that the D corps in Ottawa are significantly worse than the D corps in Pittsburgh, so unless Murray stands on his head he’s going to be swiss cheese for the next 4 years for Ottawa.
I know rebuilding teams have to give a “we’re bad” premium to entice free agents, but Ottawa shelled out a minimum of $2 million a season too much for Murray. You should be giving out $500k-$1 million in premium spending, but not more than that.
Now, if the Sens gave Murray a base salary of $4-4.25 million and $2 million a season in bonuses – that’s a contract that makes a lot more sense for both Murray and the Sens. But they gave him the whole thing as a guaranteed salary. For me, this signing takes the cake as the worst signing of free agency.
He was an elite goalie the 1st 2 seasons in Pittsburgh when his team won back to back cups but ever since then he’s been mediocre to average. Elite paycheck for a mediocre to average goalie – this is even worse than the Markstrom contract Calgary shelled out. At least they had the good sense not to give him an NT or NM clause.
Ottawa better hope that the “change of scenery effect” is fully in play here, because at this point that’s Murray’s only redeeming quality and the only way he improves in Ottawa. Personally, I wouldn’t count on it.
Platooning with Murray will be a name Oiler fans should be familiar with – Anders Nilsson. Nilsson has since gone on to put up 1 elite season with Buffalo and then proceed to be mediocre to average everywhere else he’s been – and since Edmonton, he’s played in St. Louis, Buffalo, Vancouver, and now Ottawa. It seems as if we aren’t really missing him.
IMO Murray is in for a world of hurt in Ottawa, and everyone will be looking to run him out of town after season 2 of this contract. Koskinen only has 97 NHL games to his name, so we don’t completely know what we have with him yet, but at least with Koskinen, we’ve got a goalie whose numbers have improved every year of his career.
Must Read. End of season player report cards for the Edmonton Oilers. light
Koskinen, I see as being superior to Murray (I take Murray’s career numbers with a grain of salt since they’re propped up by 2 elite seasons), but after that? It’s a tough call. Age is a factor with Mike Smith, but Nilsson has career numbers that are somehow even worse than Smith’s. Despite the fact he’s younger, I’m going to have to give the edge to the Oilers on the other end of the tandem too.
Never thought I’d see the day, but here’s a goaltending duo worse than the Oilers.
Winner: Oilers
That’ll do it for the Eastern teams. Stay tuned as I look at how the Oilers will compare to the Western teams and then predict standings for a Canadian division.