The hiring of Dave Tippett already has Oilers fans debating about whether it is the right move. Some fans say that the hiring brings in experience that is needed, others say it is just another recycled coach that is all too familiar to the Oilers.
Tippet is often deemed a “defensive minded coach”, however in his media availability, he laughed at this remark. He said he was hired in Dallas (before he was with Arizona) because of his offensive prowess and knowledge. Tippett also said that he will use a “5 man” total hockey approach when fore-checking and attacking in the offensive zone. This makes sense, as it is obviously easier to defend against only three players. Tippett said he wants the defence on the attack as well.
With that, I am going to take a look at what I believe the Oilers defence will look like in the fall. I will analyze the players I believe will stay, the subtractions, and the additions.
Staying:
Oscar Klefbom
This one is pretty obvious in my opinion. Oscar Klefbom is on a great value contract, signing on September 19th, 2015 for 7 years, at an AAV of just north of 4.1 million. He is a definite top pair defenceman, and although he may be not a number one D on some teams, he is a great player. When he is on his game and healthy, he is a force on the ice.
Adam Larsson
The Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson trade will never be a positive one for Oilers fans. However, the trade is in the past. Now, Larsson had a really tough season in 2018-2019. Bruce Mccurdy of the Edmonton Journal broke down some of his advanced stats throughout the season. He dropped below 50% in all of the “building block categories” of advanced statistics, including corsi for, fenwick for, and expected goals for percentage. Although, he was still in the positive relative to his Oilers teammates. He had a -32 goal differential at 5v5, which was the worst in the NHL. Having said all that, Larsson had a solid year in 2016-2017, and his trade value right now would be quite low. I would keep him and hope for a better season along side his Swedish compatriot, Oscar Klefbom.
Darnell Nurse
Many hockey writers have argued over the idea of trading Darnell Nurse. The prospect pool of the Oilers is deep on defence, and they are looking to add offence, but I personally would not trade Nurse. Often times in recent history, trading young defenceman often leads to that team losing the trade (with the exception being the Larsson for Hall trade). You can look at the Seth Jones for Ryan Johansson trade as an example of where it did not work out (for Nashville). In no way am I saying Nurse is Jones’s level, but the trade is a good example. With Nurse, I am not sold on his hockey IQ, but he is a young player who adds physicality to the team and skates terrifically. He will need a raise in 2020-2021, but by that time both Kris Russell’s, and Brandon Manning’s contracts will be off the books.
Andrej Sekera
The debate over the past several months among Oilers fans and media has been between keeping Andrej Sekera or Kris Russell. I believe the Oilers should keep Sekera. Although Sekera costs you $1.5 million more than Russell, I believe his upside makes that extra cap hit worth it. Sekera is not only a much better skater than Russell, but he moves the puck much more efficiently and positively. The Oilers lack solid puck movers on the back end, and that often causes them to be hemmed in their own zone and unable to get the puck up to the forwards flying through the neutral zone. Sekera looked great on the third pair last year (although with sheltered minutes and lesser competition), and I believe the team should keep him around.
Subtractions:
Kris Russell
I really appreciate the play of Kris Russell. He puts his body on the line every night for his teammates and the fans. But the fact of the matter is, his contract is too expensive for what he brings to the table. He is slower than most players on the back end, and does not move the puck very well. Russell often looks like he hesitates while moving the puck, and resorts many times to flipping the puck out or chipping it off the glass. This kills the five man attack the Oilers need and does not allow them to transition well.
The Oilers are also quite deep on the left side. If the Oilers can move his $4 million contract to one of the ten teams on his submitted trade list (he has a NTC with this clause detail), I think they should pull the trigger. The Oilers may have to retain some salary in a deal for Russell, but it would likely be worth it. Especially with Manning’s contract buried in the minors and coming off the books at the end of the season.
Chicago was near the top of the league in 2018-19 in goals for per game (3.3,T5), but also sat second last in goals against per game, in front of only the Senators in this category (Chicago allowed 3.33 goals/game). Could Chicago use a steady, stay at home defenceman like Russell? He could help shore up their own end, and though he would not help much offensively, they already score in bunches. He could play on their third pair with Connor Murphy and be very solid for the Hawks. Right now, the Hawks have just over $19 million in cap space, so they could take on Russell’s contract.
Matt Benning
With the plethora of young RD prospects the Oilers have at their disposal, they should try their best to move Matt Benning out. He has been solid on the third pair for the Oilers, but I believe some of the prospects have more upside. The Matt Benning for Connor Brown trade proposal has been floating around for a while. If that trade is a possibility, Holland should do it. Brown makes a manageable $2.1 million this year and is an RFA after this season. He played with Mcdavid in junior and scored 20 goals in 2016-17 for the Leafs playing in their top 6.
Additions:
Caleb Jones
Jones showed last year that he can be a very solid and formidable NHL player. Although he was playing mostly sheltered minutes on the third pairing, he played very well. He is an excellent skater and has some offensive upside. He will only make $720,000 this upcoming year and could be an excellent bargain for a team in cap trouble right now. I can see him possibly even sliding up to the second pair with Darnell Nurse for the season, and having Sekera play on the third pair. Although Jones struggled last year when he moved up to play more minutes because of injury, I believe he will be more ready for that role this year.
Joel Persson or Evan Bouchard
I believe that out of these two players, whoever has the best showing in training camp will make the opening night roster as the last defenceman. The Oilers finally have a pipeline of young defenceman battling for a few spots on the roster. There are up to five players, not including Jones, that could fight for NHL minutes next year. This is great for the organization and is what fans have been hoping for for years. Persson and Bouchard have the best shot in my opinion, but Bear, Lagesson, and Samorukov could also fight for some time in the big leagues.
For long term development purposes, it might be smart to keep Bouchard in the AHL and play top minutes. Persson is older, also has offensive upside, and is a gamble. If he does not work out for the organization, so be it. Bouchard needs to work out for the Oilers.
The Oilers top 6 D could look like this next year:
Klefbom-Larsson
Nurse-Jones
Sekera-Bouchard or Persson
Thanks for reading! Let me know your thoughts on the defence in the comments.