Should The Edmonton Oilers Trade Their First-Round Pick?
A look into whether or not the Edmonton Oilers should trade their first-round pick in the NHL Entry Draft, and who would be targetted in this type of trade
It’s a tough time of the year for Edmonton Oilers fans. A time where everyone wishes they were crowding into Ford Hall and high fiving strangers walking down 104 Ave is instead spent cheering on the Colorado Avalanche, hoping they can take away some bragging rights from the Calgary Flames.
So to fill this void, let’s talk about a question that comes up every year…
Should the Oilers trade their first round pick?
As discussed in my last piece, there are several quality players available at number 8 in the draft. However, this is a franchise that is running out of time and may not have the patience to wait for another young prospect to develop.
So expect to hear rumors of potential trades including the Oilers first round pick to keep coming up more and more often as we inch closer to the NHL Entry Draft.
This isn’t a pick the team will move for just anyone; it has to be a young player who has proven himself at the NHL level and fills a hole in the Oilers lineup. There has been one player who I’ve been thinking about always as a possible fit for this type of trade.
His name — Nikolaj Ehlers of the Winnipeg Jets
Does It make sense for the Oilers?
Ehlers is a player who has flirted with a 30 goal scoring pace in his last three consecutive seasons and has hit over 60 points twice in his four seasons as an NHL’er. On the ice his speed is mesmerizing, and when he’s at the top of his game, there’s no doubt that his skating makes him one of the most explosive players in the NHL.
His one knock could be his inconsistency throughout the season, but the bottom line is that he is a young top-six forward who will get you 60 points in 82 games and can play with skilled players. I don’t think anything outlines a filled need more than Ehlers would for the Edmonton Oilers.
But should the team step away from the podium on June 21 to acquire him? I think yes. The team would probably have to add-on a significant prospect as well, and even then this is still a move the team should be making at this point.
There is no denying that there are some unbelievable players that will be on the board at 8, players that may end up being better than Ehlers. But this is a team that has to start winning some games, and they cannot afford to strike out on this pick.
Like I mentioned in my article outlining the reasons a Jesse Puljujarvi trade should be considered, only 54% of top 10 picks in the NHL Entry Draft have turned into top 6 forwards or top 4 D between 1990 and 2013. (calculated using data provided from Scott Cullens Statistically Speaking article written in June 2017)
With the growth of the game, in particular in the United States, we should expect that number to have grown since then. But this still is not a risk the Oilers can afford to take right now. Sure they could hit a home run and draft the next Mikko Rantanen or Timo Meier — but they could also end up taking another project piece which we don’t see for three years, or maybe never pans out.
Trading for Ehlers would give them certainty, and an electrifying skater who fits perfectly into the age bracket of the Oilers core. No brainer to go all in on him unless there is a player they like on the board.
Now for the part that most of us would like to overlook when talking about potential Oiler trade scenarios… would the Winnipeg Jets want any part of this deal?
Does it make sense for the Jets?
We just talked about how a quality player like Ehlers would make a difference for this Oilers team right away, so why in the world would a contender in Winnipeg Jets ever want to part ways with him at this time? Well actually, there are three reasons, so let’s dive into them:
1. Cap Crunch
This offseason the Winnipeg Jets have to resign Patrick Laine, Kyle Connor, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, and many others. They also currently only have 3.9 million in cap space.
Now the cap is expected to increase by 4 million next season, they could let Kevin Hayes walk in free agency, and they could find a way to move Dmitry Kulikov’s contract. This would clear up some significant cap space, but this is still going to be a tight squeeze to make it happen.
Maybe they can find a way to make it work, but the next two points are going to explain why it would be best for the Jets to avoid this headache altogether and instead decide to move on from Ehlers.
2. A Lack of Organizational Depth at Centre
The Winnipeg Jets are right on the edge of being consistent Stanley Cup contenders, but they still haven’t got to the Stanley Cup Finals with this group. They seem to have all the pieces… except for one.
The last two trade deadline periods have seen the Winnipeg Jets trade for ‘fill-in’ second line centers in Paul Stastny and Kevin Hayes. It’s relatively obvious that Bryan Little can’t be slotted into that second-line center position if this team wants to compete.
The Jets need that 1-2 punch at center ice, and that’s a strength they have just never had.
It just so happens that this draft could have a center as elite as Kirby Dach, Alex Turcotte, or maybe even Dylan Cozens, along with others available at the number 8 selection. Some will be taken before that, but with so many talented players in the top 10, there’s no doubt that one of those guys should slide.
If you add a player like Turcotte behind Mark Scheifele, and he develops into an exceptional talent, you are looking at a team that has all the ingredients to be the best team in the NHL year after year.
3. The Organizational Depth at Wing
This trade would give the Jets an opportunity to address an organizational need and clear some much-needed cap. But can they afford to move a productive top-six winger? Well with players like Jack Roslovic and others knocking on the door of a top-six role it makes it much easier to swallow.
Roslovic looked promising in his first season with the Jets, putting up 14 points in 31 games as a rookie. His numbers this past season in a bottom-six role were nothing to get excited about for Jets fans. However, the talent is undeniable and very noticeable.
So many are eager to see what the former USHL phenom can do when paired with some of Winnipeg’s most talented forwards.
The only problem is that Winnipeg has too many wingers on their roster for him to make that jump.
Mason Appleton is another player who is inching closer to being a fixture in the Jets forward group. The 23-year-old has come off back to back seasons flirting with a point per game status in the AHL for the Manitoba Moose. A mark that many believe indicates when players are ready to graduate to the NHL level.
The benefits of this trade would have it’s losses immediately compensated by the organizational depth on the wing and could give the Jets the missing piece in their roster to put them over the top.
Is This All Just a Fantasy?
Every year Oilers fans fantasize about the type of player they could get if they traded the teams first-round pick. And we all know that it rarely happens. Many of us are probably still scarred from the last time the team decided to move its first-round pick for Griffin Reinhart.
There are valid reasons for why this could be a viable option for the Jets to look at, and Ehlers has a proven track record that shows he could be an instant contributor to the Oilers forward group. It’s still very early, but maybe some smoke surrounds this closer to June. Either way, it will be an exciting time indeed.
Let me know if there’s a player you would trade the 8th overall pick for!