Two Trades That Could Help The Edmonton Oilers Right Now
I enjoy playing armchair GM, so I thought I’d do it again. Here are two trades that would make the Edmonton Oilers better right now, and get rid of two of Peter Chiarelli screwups in the process.
Edmonton Oilers: Do I have your attention yet? Let’s get to it.
Trade #1
To Edmonton
Dougie Hamilton ($4 million of retained cap hit – if they don’t want to preserve so much cap space then they must take Ryan Spooner as well) and Boston’s 2019 7th round pick
To Carolina
Matt Benning, Brandon Manning ($1 million of retained cap hit) and the 2019 6th round pick
Why Dougie Hamilton?
Well, if you believe the rumors here, Carolina is so displeased with the Dougie Hamilton trade with Calgary that they’re looking to deal him now.
If they are looking to deal him now, they’re selling at a low point which means the Oilers can buy at a low point – a weak point which wouldn’t be available for any other good d-man at the same price.
Benning is a player who has been in and out of the lineup for us but at 24 years of age still has the potential to take a step forward. Hamilton is a player in his prime right now which means he fits better here while Benning is a better fit in Carolina, especially if they plan to blow it up after this season. The Oilers, on the other hand, are trying to win now, and Benning isn’t helping them do that. Hamilton, though, could.
Why should Carolina retain so much of his cap hit?
Well, to be blunt, his current cap hit of $5.75 million is a complete boat anchor for a guy playing on the 3rd pairing – which he is right now with the ‘Canes if you see here.
Also, the Hurricanes need to see that this is what happens when you sell low on a player – teams won’t exactly offer the moon for him, and we as Oiler fans know better than anyone that if your team is in a bad position it’s highly unlikely you’ll be offered a great hockey trade. If you want to get rid of an underachiever, no one will offer you an achiever back.
This is the same reason I ask the ‘Canes to take on Brandon Manning – if you want to get rid of a problem child you have to take another one back. That’s just how trades in the NHL work in this case.
There are also financial reasons as well. Carolina has more cap space than any other team in the NHL right now – almost $17 million to be exact, so they can easily afford to retain $4 million of Hamilton’s cap hit for the next 2 seasons, which, while noticeable, isn’t as big a deal as it would be to a lot of other teams. Also, they have other players emerging on D that they want to make room for, so his replacement is already on board.
Why would the Oilers want Hamilton in the 1st place?
In part because the price is right, and in part, because they can take advantage of a situation in which the team no longer wants the player and the player probably wants a fresh start as well.
Hamilton is currently on pace for 11 goals and 30 points (he has 6-10-16 in 44 games now).
Before the trade in Carolina, he had four straight seasons of 40 points and 1 season of 50 in Calgary. He also flirted with the 20 goal mark with the Flames last season, which is extremely difficult for a d-man to do.
His defensive play has slipped to -12 from a +1 last year, which admittedly is a concern, but if he catches fire again he could displace Kris Russell in the top 4 and then the Oilers would have another puck moving d-man they’ve been coveting for a long time, particularly one on the right side. He played his best hockey beside Mark Giordano in Calgary, could he do the same here beside rising star Darnell Nurse? It’s a calculated risk that yes he could.
If own zone play is a concern, he can always start on the 3rd pairing against soft competition to get his confidence back, maybe even manning the point on the 2nd PP unit to get his confidence back.
If he doesn’t work out, at $1.75 million a year to the team, he’ll be easy to move on from.
This is a move that, IMO, is low risk but potentially a lot of rewards involved.
Why retain $1 million of Manning’s salary?
It makes it more attractive to move him – otherwise, there’s no way they’ll take him.
Considering that we’re asking the ‘Canes to retain 70% of Hamilton’s cap hit it seemed only fair to retain 44% of Manning’s.
The beauty part of this for Carolina is they would only be paying Manning $1.25 million against the cap.
For them, if they don’t want to give him a spot (which they probably wouldn’t) they could easily put him on waivers, and – if he gets picked up then he’s someone else’s problem – but if he clears waivers they can send him down to the minors and save 950K against his cap hit per the CBA.
That brings his cap hit down to only 300K for 1 season in the minors and a handful of change for the remainder of this season.
For a team like Carolina with the most cap space in the league, that’s nothing.
Meanwhile, the Oilers have the lesser of the 2 evils in that they would still have $1.3 million for next season and a handful of change for this season against the cap should they choose to send him down to Bakersfield, which $1 million is still better than paying him $2.25 million to be a healthy scratch most nights here next season or $1.3 million in the minors.
$1 million to get him out of dodge is definitely the lesser of the two evils. It hurts a bit for next season, but it’s better than the other two alternatives combined.
You have to have a bit of a killer instinct to be a GM in the NHL, and IMO Peter Chiarelli lacks this right now. If Carolina wants to get rid of a player they want to get rid of, they have to take back a player we don’t want on our roster – but if they play their cards right, Manning won’t have much of an effect on them.
Bottom line
This is a trade that would work well for both teams. Carolina gets a better fit for their roster spot at right 3rd pairing D, while the Oilers get a puck mover who could benefit from a change of scenery and fill a need on the back end for a minimal cap hit in exchange for a player who looks less and less like a long term fit here with each game he plays.
Hamilton is a low-risk bet for the Oilers that could net them a high reward in roster fit if he works out, and can easily be traded if he doesn’t.
Meanwhile, the Oilers can get rid of a player they want to desperately get rid of, and Carolina can help us out in that regard if we meet them halfway and take back some cap space, and if they stash him (Manning) in the minors as expected, then the financial impact on their cap would be very minimal, and they get to get rid of a headache for their organization (Hamilton).
Trade #2 (this one we assume will be made at the deadline at the latest, while the Hamilton trade could still occur in the offseason)
To Edmonton
James Van Riemsdyk ($3 million in cap hit retained by Philly) and the 2020 6th round pick
To Philadephia
2019 2nd round pick, Ty Rattie and Ryan Spooner ($1 million in cap hit retained by Edmonton, also assuming Carolina chooses the less expensive of the two options in the Hamilton trade which is not to include Ryan Spooner in it).
Why James Van Riemsdyk?
Philly has been a colossal failure as a team this year. Rumour has it they’re going to blow it all up and rebuild. Veteran players like Van Riemsdyk don’t belong on rebuilding teams, which is why Philly will be looking to include him in a fire sale.
Also, JVR has not been good in his 2nd tour of duty in Philly – he only has seven goals and 16 points in 28 games this season (he got injured at the beginning of the season but is back in the lineup now). That projects out to 21 goals and 47 points. They are decent numbers but considering that last season in TO he had 36-18-54, his boxcars have dipped hardcore. That player is not worth a $7 million cap hit, but a $4 million cap hit? Absolutely.
Just like the Hamilton trade, this is a case of buying low for a team looking to rid itself of a struggling asset, gambling that a change of scenery sparks a fire under him.
Considering that JVR cracked the 20 goal mark in 4 of 6 seasons with the Leafs and the 30 goal mark twice during those six seasons, IMO he’s a calculated risk.
Imagine the 1st line of JVR-Connor–AC. That would be a thing of beauty. It would also allow Leon Draisaitl to either center his own line on the 2nd line with Nuge as a winger or vice versa. Or you play LD on the right of Connor and AC on the 2nd line. Either way, it gives the team some huge options moving forward and will help out big time with scoring depth.
JVR is only 29 and signed for the next four seasons after this one, so he should still be an impactful player for years to come.
Just like Hamilton, he’s struggling so we can pick him up for a lower price as Philly will likely want to pay him only $3 million instead of $7 million, even if he’s not playing for them. They’ve already got the cap space to do it, and that’s BEFORE they move out expiring contracts – they’ve got about $10 million worth of that between 3 forwards anyway.
It’s also interesting to note that Leafs fans and media still speak well of JVR, which is a difficult thing for ex-Leafs to do (just ask Phil Kessel). That’s got to mean something.
Why would Philly take Rattie and Spooner from us?
Well, admittedly the 2nd round pick this year – which chances are going to be a top 15, top 20 at worst – is the centerpiece of the trade, and a rebuilding team always needs more draft picks, right? If JVR were producing as he is expected to it would probably take our 1st rounder to get him, but since he’s struggling that would move it down to a 2nd rounder.
Anyway, Rattie at this point it seems obvious to me isn’t in the team’s long term plans so we might as well give him an 18-20 game audition with another team to see if a change of scenery can help him as well. Rebuilding teams will have all kinds of opportunity for players like Rattie, opportunities not available for him in Edmonton.
If he doesn’t take advantage of said opportunities, all Philly has to do is not offer him a QO, then he walks for nothing at the end of the season.
Spooner is included for the same reason Manning is in the Hurricanes trade – we’re taking a player that doesn’t fit into Philly off their hands for them, so we’re asking them to do the same for us.
And again, the beauty part of this is the same as with Manning for Philly, just with different numbers.
Predictably they’ll put him on waivers once they get him – and because we’re retaining $1 million of his cap hit, his hit for Philly is now down to $2.1 million. If he gets claimed on waivers, then no problem, if he clears waivers, he goes down to their farm team, and they save another 950K on his cap hit.
That means his cap hit is now down to $1.15 million for next season plus a small chunk of change for this season. If rebuilding teams have one thing going for them, it’s cap space.
Could Philly handle $1.15 million in cap space for Spooner if they get a very valuable 2nd round pick back from the Oilers plus a potential RWer for next year? I’d say yes.
Meanwhile, for the Oilers, they only have to have $1 million of Spooner’s cap hit against their cap for 1 season as opposed to the $3.1 million when no one takes him in a trade or the $2.15 million if he plays in Bakersfield next year.
At his full cap hit, no one will even take him for free on waivers. Forget it.
But, if we keep $1 million of his cap as a throw-in in the trade, and then his new team saves another 950K by assigning him to their farm team, then the impact to both the Oilers and his new team is minimal.
Bottom line
This is a trade that could work out for both teams. The Oilers get a player they really need right now and get to rid themselves of 3 players that aren’t in their future.
Philly, meanwhile, gets another valuable draft pick – which means less to the Oilers since they’re trying to win now – plus another potential forward and a problem child for minimal cap hit they can quietly bury and not have to think about again, while at the same time sending out a player who wouldn’t be happy playing on a rebuilding team.
Next. How Should The Oilers Handle The Trade Deadline?. dark
As always, credit goes to cap-friendly for all cap hit numbers.
So what do you think? Do I make a better GM than Peter Chiarelli yet (haha)? What do you think?