Edmonton Oilers: Ranking Players That Are Trending Down This Season
We’ll be taking a closer look at each player for the Edmonton Oilers so far this season and grading them if they are trending below expectations.
Edmonton Oilers: Well, we’re officially at the halfway mark, so let’s see how our players are doing. Who’s part of the solution and who’s part of the problem? Let’s find out together.
Will the Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs this year? American Thanksgiving is supposedly considered the mark to behold as teams that hold a playoff spot by then have a 78% chance to make the playoffs. Now that was before the Oilers went on a tear and became the 2nd hottest team in the league for a while with a seven-game win streak and 14 point bump in the standings, so hey like I said to expect the unexpected.
Anyway, let’s get to it. We’ve already covered two categories so far: those trending up and those standing pat. Just for kicks, there are a few players who we can’t judge so I’ll mention them as well. We’ll start with the players trending down.
First Player Trending Down
1. Milan Lucic
Milan Lucic came to the Oilers as a big free agent splash of our GM in kind, as a replacement for Taylor Hall at 1st line LW that could open up the ice for Connor McDavid and whoever else at RW with physical play as the NHL’s premier power forward.
Although he’s had one good season in that role, things have gone downhill quickly for Lucic. If you thought last year was the bottom of the barrel for Lucic with 10-24-34 with a -12, just look at the first half of this season when he followed that up with 1-7-8 in 40 games with a -11. That projects out to 2 goals and 16 points on the season.
Ouch.
He’s by far the most prominent boat anchor on the team with a $6 million cap hit for another four seasons after this one. If he finishes this year worse than the last, expect the Oilers to find some way to get him off the team. Buyout, waivers, trade for another bad contract, trade of a draft pick to Seattle in the expansion draft to take him; you can bet any and all options will be explored. And it probably won’t be hard to convince Lucic to waive his NMC because I get the sense he wants a fresh start as much as the team wants to move on from him. It’s not a choice; it is simply mandatory that his cap hit is reduced if not eliminated. Otherwise, the team simply won’t be able to get better, and it’s that simple.
The bottom line is that the Oilers simply cannot afford to have Lucic performing this bad. His contract is simply too big on a team already lacking in cap space for him to stick around in the long term. After all, if they wanted a 4th line grinder, they could sign a different player for a fraction of the cost of what Lucic is costing right now.
Ken Hitchcock has changed his role and reduced his expectations, but what else is a coach supposed to do with a player struggling as bad as Lucic is? He can’t even generate offense against the softest minutes the NHL has to offer, but other than being a healthy scratch there’s nothing else he can do with him other than playing him on the 4th line. Remember his NMC means Lucic himself has to OK being put on waivers and sent down to Bakersfield, something he probably won’t approve.
Unless he picks it up in the 2nd half of the season, Lucic will be gone from the Oilers after this season by any means necessary.
Second Player Trending Down
2. Ty Rattie
Ty Rattie was signed by the Oilers to a 2-way contract as a free agent in the 2017 offseason, and at the time we all said “Who?”
Fast forward to the end of 2017-18 when the Oilers were looking for a spark on offense and decided to bring up Rattie from Bakersfield, who was on a bit of a tear as he’s put up 21 goals and flirted with the PPG mark.
He was called up at the end of 2017-18 where he put up five goals and 9 points in 14 games riding shotgun next to Connor McDavid.
” Great,” we all thought “FINALLY we have an inexpensive winger we can put next to Connor McDavid who can put up points.”
Fast forward to this season and my how 1 season changes things.
Struggling to start the season, Rattie was immediately taken off the 1st line and has been in and out and up and down the lineup since.
He doesn’t seem to be able to generate offense with anyone other than Connor McDavid, and even then it’s only sporadic.
That’s a part that’s easily replaceable.
He’s only put up 2-5-7 in 24 games with the Oilers this year, which projects out to 6 goals and 24 points.
As a bottom six depth scorer that would be perfect, but as a top 6 forward that’s simply not good enough.
He’s only got two saving graces – Connor McDavid has publicly said he likes playing with him, but we have to take that with a grain of salt since what good does it do for a captain to disparage his teammates publicly? There’s no upside to it, and plenty of downside. I would bet dollars to donuts that without mics or cameras around and behind closed doors, Mcdavid’s story would change.
The other one is even though he has trouble scoring he is still responsible defensively, being +1 in 2 seasons with the Oilers.
At this point, Ty Rattie’s contract is up after this season, and he has a 50-50 chance at best of being re-signed. If the Oilers plan to upgrade their wings and bottom 6 depth scoring once the season is done – and honestly at this point I don’t see why they wouldn’t – then they’ll probably do what St. Louis did 2 seasons ago and simply not give him a qualifying offer (he’s an RFA after this season).
He might get a 2-way contract, though, as he can definitely score in the AHL. Whether that’s with the Oilers or another team remains to be seen.
Unless, of course, he goes on a hot streak in the 2nd half of the season and then all bets are off. But with every passing game that looks less and less likely for Rattie.
Third Player Trending Down
You know you’re having a bad season when Milan Lucic only scores one goal in the 1st half of the season and is outscoring you by one goal.
That’s the story of Toby Rieder who has seven assists on the season and no goals, after being brought in to provide some secondary depth scoring and not drown defensively, which is what he has been known for up until now.
Rieder has only put up 124 points in 339 NHL games and has never cracked the 20 goal mark in his career (16 is his career high). So it’s not like we were expecting him to carry a line, but would 15 goals and 40 points be too much to ask when you spend most of your season riding port side to Nuge or Leon Draisaitl? Not IMO.
Unless he picks it up in the 2nd half of the season, he’s on pace for no goals and 21 assists – and that’s probably flattering him.
Time will tell what happens next with him. If he starts scoring, he could be back for another season or 2 at a cheap price range, exactly what the Oilers need right now.
If not, he’s as good as gone by season’s end if not at the deadline.
Fourth Player Trending Down
Brodziak’s season has been indicative of one of the big problems with the construct of the roster: not enough depth scoring.
Brodziak is having a lousy season personally although for a 4th line center his offensive production is tolerable – it gets magnified since so many other players are having trouble scoring.
Brodziak currently sports 3-2-5 in 38 and has produced 100% of his offense in only three games all season – and nothing since Dec. 11 at that with a -11 to boot (he was +13 in St. Louis last year).
This after putting up ten goals and 33 points in 81 games with the Blues last year. Brodziak has not really impressed in his 2nd go around with the team.
His 2 saving graces are he’s been solid on faceoffs this year: he currently sports a 52.63% on faceoffs, a new career high and tops on the team (I don’t count the 61.6% Jesse Puljujarvi sports in just 3 faceoff attempts) as well as being a secondary option on the PK (he spends an average of 1:38 per game on the PK, 7th on the team).
If I were a betting man I would bet this is why he hasn’t been healthy scratched from the lineup like other struggling vets, tend to do – especially because of the faceoffs.
Brodziak won’t be counted on to score the Oilers out of their slump in-depth scoring, but even for a 4th line center that’s pretty brutal for a guy to only score in 3 games all season, never mind for a guy who put up 33 points just last season.
At least for Brodziak, the price is pretty good: he carries a $1.15 million cap hit for this year and next. Unless a clear win of a trade comes for him, chances are he’ll be here next year and get a chance to redeem himself.
Unless of course, he goes on a tear in the 2nd half of the season, then forget I said that.
Fifth Player Trending Down
Puljujarvi is pretty much the poster boy for the Oilers’ scoring past the big 3 and Alex Chiasson.
He was expected to take a step forward this year after killing it in the AHL (both last year and this year) and finishing as one of the top scorers in training camp. Puljujarvi suffered from a lack of confidence early on in the season, and thus his earlier stint in Bakersfield did him some good after he got his confidence back putting up 4 points in 4 games down there.
He fell out of favor with Todd McLellan, and Ken Hitchcock wanted him to get another look up here, and although his guns have gone silent in the last four games, he has three goals and 5 points in 29 games. At that rate, he’ll finish with eight goals and 14 points, nothing to write home about.
If the Oilers plan to keep Puljujarvi up here for the rest of season, I hope they plan to leave him in Bakersfield for longer next season because it really seems like he needs it. Ken Hitchcock says he’s already too good for the AHL and needs to be learning up here, but I don’t buy that for a second. The NHL is not a learning league, that’s what the AHL is for. He needs to develop his consistency down in Bakersfield, not here.
He’s only 20, so it’s not like he’s a lost cause or anything, far from it. That being said, we don’t want to turn him into another Sam Gagner. Leave him in the AHL until he’s absolutely ready.
But, if the Oilers have any sense whether it’s PC or somebody else in the GM’s chair next year, priority #1 should be to get at least 1 veteran right winger so we can leave both Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto in the AHL for the bulk of next year and only call them back up in case of injury or when they’re absolutely ready.
The one silver lining to Puljujarvi’s season is he won’t be due for a big raise or even a 1-way contract. He’ll be signed for a minimum 2-way contract after this season and then once he’s absolutely ready to go here, then he comes back and kills it when it counts.
Sixth Player Trending Down
6. Zack Kassian
Kassian is another player who is slumping on offense. Before this season Kassian had been a stellar bottom six forward, providing the team with excellent physical play and good secondary offense, putting up seven goals apiece and point totals of 24 and 19 respectively in the previous two seasons. Those are solid numbers for a bottom six player.
But Kassian hasn’t been the same player this year for some odd reason. He hasn’t seemed engaged physically many nights and offense has been lacking from his game. His shooting % is typically at 10.2%, and in the first half of this season he has put up only 4.4% – that’s going to be a career-worst unless it improves in the 2nd half of the season.
He has recently been put up on a line with Connor McDavid, but the days of Kassian being a reliable top 6 players were past long before he came to the Oilers, so don’t expect any offensive performance up there to last for the rest of the season – but hey, hopefully, he catches a wave and enjoys it.
Kassian is signed for next season as well, so he may stick around past this season but if PC gets fired then all bets are off in regards to the guys he brought in (of which Kassian is one).
Notwithstanding whatever he puts up with McDavid, Kassian is currently on pace for only 8 points – just under half of what he produced last season.
Kassian is just 1 of the players the Oilers need to step up if they hope to make the playoffs this season.
Seventh Player Trending Down
7. Ryan Spooner
Next time someone interviews PC about the 2 Ryans trade, perhaps there should be a donkey braying sound in the background when you play the clip.
Also, rumor has it that PC tried to get Spooner included in the Petrovic and Manning trades, but both Florida and Chicago said No Mas.
That pretty much says it all about Spooner, who has been a great disappointment since coming here from the Rangers. 2-1-3 in 19 games to be exact.
That projects out to 9 goals and 19 points, but considering Spooner hasn’t had a point since Dec. 14 and hasn’t had a goal since Dec. 13, those numbers you just know are flattering him.
To add insult to injury, Ryan Strome has put up 4-5-9 for the Rangers since the trade and currently has put up two goals and one assist in his past three games played for them.
So essentially what that means is unless Spooner pours it on in the last half of the season that the Oilers lost this trade as the change of scenery worked for Strome but not for Spooner.
Now we have a $3.1 million boat anchor contract for this year and next. After the Oilers talk about how they can get rid of Lucic’s contract, then the second item on the agenda will be doing the same thing with Spooner.
Thanks for the screw job, Chiarelli.
Eighth Player Trending Down
Chiarelli can be forgiven for this one a bit as in his defense Yamamoto is only up here as an injury fill-in. I suspect once Alex Chiasson is back Yamamoto will be sent back down to Bakersfield.
Like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto struggled to start the year and so was sent down to Bakersfield. He scored his 1st NHL goal on Oct. 18 and then a week later got an assist, but other than that has failed to generate anything offensively. He sports the same -2 he finished with last season, so although he’s not bleeding without the puck there’s still a small leak there, so to speak.
Like Puljujarvi, he’s only 20, so he’s not done yet by a longshot.
Like Puljujarvi, once Chiasson is back in the lineup, we send him down to Bakersfield and leave him there until he’s absolutely ready to come back. He was a healthy scratch in the Arizona game so if Chiasson comes back against LA tonight as expected then hopefully he goes back down to play with the Condors right away.
Like Puljujarvi, Yamamoto can put up some offense in the AHL and the preseason but hasn’t been able to translate that to the NHL just yet.
I have a feeling it’s coming; we just need to keep him in the AHL until it comes. Develop him correctly, and good things will happen.
Ninth Player Trending Down
9. Cam Talbot
Cam Talbot has fallen from grace in a big way – but the difference this year is now he has legitimate competition for starts.
He followed an off year last year of a 3.02 GAA and .908 Sv% – which at least you could say were average numbers – with the 1st half of this season with an ugly 3.30 GAA and .892 Sv%.
Ouch.
In his 1st season as the starter here, Talbot was one of the NHL’s top goaltenders in terms of wins, but the past two seasons he has struggled quite badly.
He hasn’t had a win since Dec. 7 and at this point has been relegated from a 1A goalie to a backup goalie. Mikko Koskinen has usurped his starting role from him until he proves otherwise.
He’s in a contract year, so if he doesn’t pick it up in the 2nd half of the season, then the best he can hope for is short term backup money going forward. The Oilers may re-sign him, or they may feel they need to move on. If they have a new GM after this season, you can expect he’ll move on for sure.
Maybe they trade him to Buffalo at the deadline for Linus Ullmark.
I’d make that trade, would you?
Tenth Player Trending Down
10. Mikko Koskinen
At first glance, it would appear Mikko Koskinen doesn’t belong in this category.
Peter Chiarelli brought him in at a crazy price of $2.5 million, which is gutsy for a guy who at the time had barely played any games in the NHL and had only proven results in the KHL.
He’s shared the workload equally with Cam Talbot this season and has a 2.52 GAA and a .919 Sv%. Both are pretty solid numbers and prove this was one of Peter Chiarelli’s better acquisitions and has proved wrong everyone who thought this was a bad idea (myself included).
The problem comes into play when you look into his game logs, found here.
He won 8 of his first ten starts, but then only had four wins in his remaining starts, including 5 of his last 6 and tonight against LA was probably his worst start as he gave up three goals on eight shots, including four straight losses in the last two weeks of December.
Now granted, with the injuries to the blueline we’re missing our key puck mover and one of our key stay at home guys, so naturally, he’s going to see more shots and thus more goals.
But at the beginning of the season, there were games when he didn’t get much support from the rest of the team, and he managed to steal a few of those wins for us.
Now more than ever we need that Koskinen that steals a win or 2 for us as we can’t afford a huge slide in the standings. Cam Talbot hasn’t gotten back to what he was yet, and we need at least one goalie on his game if we have any hope of making the playoffs this year.
If he can settle down and become the steady presence between the pipes that he was at the beginning of the season, then that could be the missing ingredient we need to overcome the lack of depth scoring and the injuries on the blueline.
Of all the guys on the list that are trending down, Koskinen is the guy that I could easily see start trending up again. But he needs to be the guy he was at the beginning of the season rather than the guy of the last few months.
Also, if he is re-signed again – and at this point, unless he completely implodes I could see him being re-signed – after he’s had a full season in the NHL, I could see him settling down next season.
But the fact remains he’s been inconsistent so far. Here’s to better things down the stretch for Koskinen.
The jury is still out on these players
Caleb Jones, Alex Petrovic, Brandon Manning, Joe Gambardella
It’s tough to judge the guys who haven’t played a lot of games for the club yet (Petrovic and Manning) or are on their first NHL callup (Jones, Gambardella).
I combined them into one category because they’re all in here for the same reason more or less: sample size matters and 1-10 games isn’t enough to judge how a player will do over the long term, certainly not for the young guys getting their 1st taste of NHL hockey.
It’s up to them to sway opinion either way as they play more games.
Honorable Mention: Kevin Gravel
I put Kevin Gravel here because it’s tough to judge a 7th defenceman. If he is invisible – which Gravel is most games – then you can assume he’s doing his job.
In 23 games Gravel has put up two assists and is -2. That’s more or less what you can expect from a 7th defenceman.
Due to the fact that 7th d-men are never consistently in the lineup, and you never know from one game to the next whether they play or not, it’s impossible to project them since the only thing you really know about them is they won’t play a full season and will sit more often than most players. You don’t even know how many games they are going to play, so how do you project their performance? You can’t really.
I can’t project Gravel because of that. A better person to ask to project Gravel would be Ken Hitchcock, but I’m willing to bet there’s a degree of gut feeling with him on this as well.
Due to that, the jury is out on him. If he goes on a goal-scoring tear, expect him to usurp a regular’s job and then we’ll be able to know more about him. Otherwise, we’ll say the jury is out on him. Good? Good.
Bottom line
I don’t know about you, but I find it rather disturbing that there are ten players on the list that are trending down. That has to improve if the Oilers have any hope of making the playoffs this year. As always, comment if you disagree about any of these assessments. With any luck, a couple of those downers can start trending up in the last half of the season.
Next. Nepotism Is The Root Cause Of The Edmonton Oilers Failures. dark
P.S. Additional stats credit goes to the NHL‘s website as well as Cap Friendly for all cap hits.
Disclaimer: This article took a long time to write, it was done in bunches over a number of days, so some of the stats may not be exactly the same. As it is very time consuming to write a piece of this magnitude, please excuse any numbers that may have changed. It won’t change my opinion about any of the players.