Edmonton Oilers: Ranking Players Trending Up So Far This Season
We’ll be taking a closer look at each player for the Edmonton Oilers so far this season and grading them if they are trending above expectations. This is part one of this series.
Edmonton Oilers: Well, we’re officially at the halfway mark, so let’s see how our players are doing. Who’s part of the solution and who’s part of the problem? Let’s find out together.
Will the Edmonton Oilers make the playoffs this year? If you believe this article from Sportsnet, American Thanksgiving is the mark to behold as teams that hold a playoff spot by then have a 78% chance to make the playoffs. Now that was before the Oilers went on a tear and became the 2nd hottest team in the league for a while with a seven-game win streak and 14 point bump in the standings, so hey like I said to expect the unexpected.
Anyway, let’s get to it. I’ll divide the players into three categories: those trending up, those trending down, and those standing pat. Just for kicks, there are a few players who we can’t judge so I’ll mention them as well. We’ll start with the players trending up and those standing pat.
First Player Trending Up
A bit obvious, I know, but we’re talking about the reigning two-time Art Ross champ in Connor Mcdavid – and mind-bogglingly he’s still on track to improve from last season. I wouldn’t doubt it if this year Connor McDavid left his competitors eating his dust.
Mcdavid currently sports a 1.44 PPG number, which projects out to 118 points. His goal scoring is projected at this point at 0.56, which projects out to 46 goals. Right now he has 49 points in 34 games – in other words, we’re not even halfway through the season and by the Tampa game he already hit the halfway to 100 points mark.
He’s excellent in his own end, too – +27 and +20 the last two seasons respectively, and off to a nice start this season with a +7 so far.
Really the only criticisms you could level at Mcdavid – and this is nitpicking I know – are in faceoffs where he’s never cracked the 50% mark in his career but is currently off to a career-best at 46.45%, so he’s making progress. The other area Mcdavid could improve upon is the PK. Right now Mcdavid only spends an average of 22 seconds per game on the PK – to put that in perspective Adam Larsson currently leads the team in PK TOI with 2:17.
Other than that McDavid is earning every penny of his contract and frankly I can’t wait for him to bring this team into the playoffs again in spring 2019.
Second Player Trending Up
Draisaitl is another player having a great year. The best German-born player to lace ’em up in the NHL by a country mile already, Draisaitl currently sports a 1.2 PPG, which projects out to 98 points – of which 38 will be goals. Both of which will be a new career high for the 23-year-old (which means he’s already putting up mind-boggling numbers and hasn’t even hit his prime yet) and with +2 rating on the right side of things without the puck.
To put that in perspective, Draisaitl would’ve finished 4th in the league in scoring last season with those numbers.
Still think he’s not worth his $8.5 million cap hit, haters? Unless he goes on a huge slump – which at this point is unlikely – he’ll easily finish in the top 10 in league scoring, maybe even top 5, and continue to be a valuable player for the Oilers for years to come. Who can cycle between wing and center easily and can score whether he’s carrying his own line or riding shotgun with Connor.
He’s even become an awesome faceoff man, top 25 in the NHL regarding FO wins and is following up last seasons 56.25% with a 50% this season.
The one interesting thing about Draisaitl’s ice time is he gets more PK time than Connor does – 1:01 which is good enough for 13th on the team, six spots above Connor’s.
As you would expect, he gets almost as much time at ES – 16 minutes a night to Connor’s 18 – and sits at #2 in PP ice time next to only Connor.
Along with Connor, the Oilers have a lethal duo in the three on three format in OT, too – the Oilers only have 3 OT losses on the season, and that’s usually because of either McDavid or Draisaitl score – it’s incredibly hard for the opposition to contain both of them at the same time.
Is there any criticism of Draisaitl? Nothing glaring. You can always be better – and since he’s two years away from PPY, I highly doubt he’s peaked yet, which is good news for us. On most teams, Draisaitl would be the undisputed 1st line center, having Connor Mcdavid to pair with is a massive chest of riches.
Third Player Trending Up
Nuge is another player who is having a stellar year for us. Until Leon and Connor came along, he was our 1st line center, which means the Oilers have a pretty sick trio of guys they can play at both center spots in the top 6.
Currently, with 11 goals and 31 points in 35 games, Nuge is flirting with the PPG mark, a good omen as the 25-year-old just started his PPY. At 0.89 PPG, that projects to 73 points, which would be a career high by a country mile. Oh, and also 25 goals which are also a career high.
Like Draisaitl, it doesn’t matter whether Nuge is riding shotgun on the wing or driving the bus on his own line at center, he produces. With an 11.1 (compared to an 11.4) shooting %, those numbers are sustainable all season.
One thing that’s a bit of an aberration is Nuge is -9 at this point in the season. That’s not great, but nothing to be concerned about. I’m willing to overlook that if he gets back to the 20 goal mark for the 3rd time in his career and starts putting multiple seasons of that together. For the record, he was much better at this last season when he was +10.
In terms of ice time, Nuge’s is a bit more interesting than either Connor’s or Leons in that he’s a top 10 player on the team at evens and on both special teams – 14:57 at evens (8th on the team), 1:51 on the PK (5th on the team), and 3:41 on the PP (4th on the team). Perhaps this has to do with the fact that he’s the most experienced of the big 3, so he plays in all three disciplines and a bit less than Connor and Leon at evens.
The one blemish to be concerned about for Nuge is his faceoffs. If he wants to play more time at center, he has to get better at faceoffs. This is his 8th season in the league, and he still hasn’t had a FO% over 50% – although he came close last year with 48.76%. This year he’s regressed a bit to 43.3%.
Once Nuge gets those faceoffs worked on, he’ll be an even more valuable player. I think he can get to 50% – if he can get to 48 he can get to 50, IMO.
Fourth Player Trending Up
It’s too bad Klef has had problems with injuries because otherwise, he’s having an excellent season this year. He’s rebounded nicely in his own end, going from -12 last year (a year in which he played injured a lot) to a +1 this year, a nice uptick, especially considering as our top d-man he gets a steady diet of the league’s best competition.
Sporting a 0.48 PPG mark (15 points in 31 games so far) that projects out to 39 points and eight goals, which would be a new career high for him (in points, only #2 in career goals in a season).
The best part is his shooting % is only 3.2%, while his career average is 4.1%, which means if he finishes even at his career average that translates out to even more offense.
He’s started to use his booming slap shot a little more (I will thusly refer to it as the Klef-BOMB) and as a result, is developing a reputation as a clutch shooter (2 of his three goals so far on the season have been game-winners).
Sure, Klefbom might not be John Carlson or Brent Burns out there, but he’s a high-quality defenseman who’s able to play a lot of minutes.
In fact, Klefbom is a horse for the Oilers in ice time, 19:44 at evens (2nd on the team), 1:55 on the PK (4th on the team) and 3:46 on the PP (2nd on the team).
Klefbom is a valuable player for this team, and I can’t see them getting rid of him until another noticeable upgrade comes along. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery, and he picks up where he left off when he comes back from injury.
Although it will be interesting to see what happens when Andrej Sekera comes back from injury, as between Klefbom, Sekera, and Darnell Nurse the Oilers will have 3 top 4 pairing lefty d-men for 2 top 4 positions.
That will be a question we’ll need to answer both for this season and going forward. It will be difficult to trade any of those players as all three are valuable and needed.
Fifth Player Trending Up
Speaking of Nurse, that segways nicely into the next name on the list.
When both of our top pairing guys were struggling last year for different reasons, Nurse stepped in and did a great job right away.
Fast forward to now, and he’s doing the same thing this season subbing in for Klefbom on the top pairing.
With 5 goals and 15 points in 35 games he’s got a 0.43 PPG ratio which projects out to 35 points (goals are 0.14 which projects to 11), both career bests for Nurse and if the 23-year-old continues to produce like this in the coming seasons he might make Klefbom expendable. Unless they convince Sekera to waive his NMC so they can either expose him in the Seattle draft or trade him somewhere else.
The best part of this offense is where it comes from. Currently Nurse plays 19:41 a game at even strength, 3rd most on the team, and 2:13 on the PK, 2nd most on the team (no shorthanded goals, unfortunately. Perhaps someday….), yet only 0:58 on the PP per game – good for 15th in the team.
This means his offense isn’t being buoyed by lots of PP time as it tends to for some d-men around the league when scoring is easier.
Now naturally those numbers will go out the window now that he’s on the top pairing, but even so, it’s still very impressive.
Last season Nurse was one of the few bright spots on D, and he looks even better this season.
Klefbom’s injury will result in a lot more ice time, and coach Ken Hitchcock has said on the record that he trusts him, which is huge for not just a young 23-year-old but a young 23-year-old defenseman.
The only concern with Nurse’s game right now is his +/- has dipped from +15 last year too -2 this year. No matter what you think of the stat itself, you have to admit that’s a bit of a concern. He was playing with Kris Russell on the right side for most of the year, and now is playing with an even better player in Adam Larsson, whom he also had chemistry with last year.
I’m not too worried about his +/- though, that’s something that will work itself out with more polishing as time goes on. We may see an even bigger dip in that now with more ice time depending on how he handles it. It’s important to remember defense is the hardest position in the NHL to master and that most players – d-men especially – don’t develop in a straight line.
Either way, Nurse is still a valuable player going forward – maybe even a future top pairing guy. At this point, it would take an [expletive] of a lot to pry him from this roster.
Sixth Player Trending Up
6. Adam Larsson
Larsson has been quietly having a very good season and adding an element of a secondary offense to his game. It started in his World Championship time with Team Sweden last year, and that part of his game seems to have translated over to the Oilers to some extent.
He’s currently 1-10-11 in 39 games. Not exactly setting the league on fire, but still good secondary contribution – which projects out to 2-22-24 on the season, good enough for the 2nd best boxcars of his career regarding points. Although on the surface he’s taken a step back defensively, it’s important to remember that the Oilers have had injury issues this season as well, so the team surrounding Larsson is not exactly up to their best – it’s obvious he misses his partner Klefbom. Expect his current -7 to rebound as other regulars come back from injury to help stop the bleeding.
Want more evidence Larsson is a great player? Take a look at the EV ice time for the league right now: http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=timeonice&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20182019&seasonTo=20182019&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evTimeOnIcePerGame
There is only one defensive d-man in the top 10 in league EV ice time – Larsson, at #9.
And remember this is through 2 coaches this season, so Larsson’s skillset has impressed both McLellan and Hitchcock, which not every player can do.
Say what you want about the Taylor Hall trade, but Larsson was a great candidate to get back from Jersey, and he was just what the doctor ordered at the time – a minute-munching stay at home guy to pair with a puck-moving countryman. He still is. The fact that the team blew an opportunity to get a sweetener back from Jersey is Peter Chiarelli‘s fault, not his.
Maybe the only knock against Larsson is he’s currently shooting at only 1.9%. He’ll probably set a new career high if he can get back to his career average of 3.6%.
Seventh Player Trending Up
Khaira has been a real gem for the Oilers, being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012 and has turned himself into a reliable depth scorer, one of the only reliable ones on this team sadly enough.
He’s played up and down the lineup, including on both lines in the top 6 and hasn’t looked out of place, which bodes well for the future unless PC does something stupid like trade him.
He currently sports 2-11-13 in 35 games. He currently projects out to a 0.37 PPG, and a 0.06 for goals, which translates out to 5 goals and 30 points, the latter of which would be a new career high for him.
Khaira is a light version of the type of player Milan Lucic is supposed to be. He can hit, fight, and chip in some secondary offense at times, the prototypical power forward.
The best part of Khaira’s offense is he’s only sporting a 6.7% shooting %, while his career average is 11%.
If he even got back to that he’d almost double his point production, which is exciting to think about.
If Khaira has a weakness at this point, it’s faceoffs. His career best is only 45%, which happened last season, and is currently at 44%. But, we have to keep in mind that he’s only taken 54 faceoffs this year. He took less than 400 last year.
If the coaching staff sees him as a winger in the long term, this won’t be much of an issue. If he is to be a center, this is a skill he will have to learn. For now it’s nice to see him breaking out, and fortunately, faceoffs are a skill he can learn and work on. It’s also nice to have the versatility of playing him at center or on the wing.
He’s bound to get a slight raise on the 675K he’s making at this point if he keeps going like this.
First Player Standing Pat On The Trend
I spent a lot of time wondering where to put Chiasson because honestly, I could make a case for him to be put in the treading up, trending down, or standing pat categories.
I ultimately chose the standing pat category as I felt that was the best place for him right now.
Honestly, on the surface it seems like he belongs in the trending up category, considering that he came to the Oilers on a PTO, and ultimately earned a contract on what was expected to be a depth player, but as losing creates opportunity Chiasson was given a chance in the top 6 to see what he could do.
And boy, did he ever show what he could do. It was a blessing in disguise considering how thin the Oilers are at RW.
He has jumped out to 16-4-20 in 31 games before his injury with a +6 to boot. He’s already set a new career high in goals, and unless he absolutely craps the bed when he gets back from injury, he’s well on his way to cracking the 20 goal mark for the 1st time in his career.
But, there’s a caveat to Chiasson’s success: he’s riding an astronomical 32% shooting %. That’s WAY above both the NHL average and also his own 13.3% career numbers, which means the tear he’s on right now is not sustainable for this season or the long term.
Want more proof? I’m going to go to a well I don’t often go to advanced stats — specifically, the stat that measures PDO, otherwise known as the luck measurement in the NHL. His is currently 105.2. Anything greater than 100 usually indicates a fortunate run of luck: AC’s PDO.
But, you can bet with the shortage of scoring from the wings the Oilers will be riding Chiasson’s high shooting % as long as they possibly can.
Still might be worth re-signing, though, for short-term and low money if we can hack it.
Second Player Standing Pat On The Trend
2. Matt Benning
Benning has been pretty quiet this season, which depending on how you look at it is either a good thing or a bad thing. Another college free agent signing, Vancouver Canucks GM Jim Benning‘s nephew Matt is still fairly early in his career but has been a bit of a mixed bag so far in his career.
Sporting a 1-7-8 in 34 games so far, he projects out to 2 goals and 20 points by season’s end, more or less what he put up last year. He’s been tried in the top 4 but couldn’t handle it thus far.
That being said, he is only 24 and is one year away from his PPY. He’s signed for this year and next. He’s been…OK as a 3rd pairing d-man but so far hasn’t lived up to the hype of his college career where he flirted with the PPG mark in year 2 of his time there.
If he shows he can move up to the top 4, the Oilers might re-sign him, and would then enable the Oilers to get rid of Kris Russell in time for the Seattle expansion draft.
But, if he doesn’t progress the Oilers may move on from him, or at least sign him at a discount.
Third Player Standing Pat On The Trend
3. Kris Russell (injured at the time of writing)
Kris Russell has had a solid under the radar season as usual. Despite what many will tell you, he’s actually a solid 3-4 d-man, not a bottom pairing one. He’s the stay at home rock to Darnell Nurse’s puck-moving and helps to provide a stable veteran presence that the Oilers have clearly been missing since he’s been injured.
Although he’s not known for offense, he can chip in some secondary offense as well, currently 1-7-8 in 31 games which projects out to 2 goals and 21 points, almost identical to what he put up last year. He’s also a solid +4 on the season, playing against middling competition. As you might expect, he plays an average of 17:38 per game at evens (7th on the team) but is a huge part of the Oilers PK. He’s playing an average of 2:06 per game on the PK (3rd on the team and one of only 3 players who have over 2 minutes a game on the PK, only Darnell Nurse and Adam Larsson play more, both at 2:09 per game), and hardly plays any time at all on the PP (only about 6 seconds per game on average, 6th worst on the team). All of this is par for the course considering his role on the team.
His real calling card, though, is he is the reigning consecutive two time blocked shots champ of the NHL now, and although it’ll be tough to make 3 in a row due to his injury allowing challengers to catch up, there’s lots of hockey left to be played so you just never know. Expect the unexpected in the NHL.
In Peter Chiarelli’s infinite stupidity, he gave Russell an NMC in his last contract, though, which means once young guys usurp him it will be tough to move him, and we’ll have to protect him in the Seattle expansion draft unless we move him out beforehand. You can’t tell me a stay at home defenceman had that much demand around the league that we had to give him an NMC.
Other than his blocked shot totals, he’s not trending down on anything at all, and since that’s due to injury, we can’t exactly fault him for that — a solid guy in the standing pat category was performing his role as expected under the radar.
dark. Next. Chiarelli's Recent Moves Shows Why He Needs To Be Fired
P.S. Additional stats credit goes to the NHL‘s website as well as Cap Friendly for all cap hits.
Disclaimer: This article took a long time to write, it was done in bunches over a number of days, so some of the stats may not be exactly the same. As it is very time consuming to write a piece of this magnitude, please excuse any numbers that may have changed. It won’t change my opinion about any of the players.