Edmonton Oilers: A Trade For Problem Children Part Two
Can the Edmonton Oilers make any changes and get rid of some players that don’t fit into the future plans of this franchise?
Edmonton Oilers: We’ve already made one trade of problem children when we traded away Ryan Strome for Ryan Spooner as I wrote about here. But there’s another problem child trade we could make – if we can pull it off. Here it is:
To Edmonton: James Neal To Calgary: Milan Lucic
I may have done a bit of foreshadowing with the image, but you may not have figured that out until you read this just now, so maybe not. This is one that will occur later on in the season, maybe even at the trade deadline.
Anyway, here’s why this trade works for the Oilers:
1. We’re a bit lacking in scoring from the right side
It’s no secret that RW hasn’t rolled out the way we expected – hey, I wrote about that here too: https://oilonwhyte.com/2018/11/12/edmonton-oilers-right-winger-issues/
It seems like the expectation at the beginning of the season was to roll out with both Jesse Puljujarvi and Kailer Yamamoto flanking the top 6 on the starboard side.
In theory, it would work as both would be flanked by more experienced personnel on the other sides of the puck, but as we all know by now, that’s not how it worked out.
The problem has been exacerbated by the injury of Tobias Rieder, who is equipped to play both wings.
Pulujujarvi, of course, is back up with the Oilers now, and although he’s done well in a whopping two games since he’s been back, that’s a short sample size, and he may, in fact, have to go back down to Bakersfield, at this point we don’t know for sure.
Alex Chiasson has been the surprise of the early going, come here on a PTO as an afterthought in training camp, but then winning a spot and not just winning but thriving, playing the right side on lines centered by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Nuge and has produced with all 3.
Looking at the rest of the scoring
Normally we should be elated by this. However Chiasson has a history of being inconsistent and this season is riding a 35.5 shooting %, which quite frankly is unsustainable for the rest of the season, never mind beyond.
Also worrisome is that he has never cracked the 20 goal mark in his career due to said inconsistency. Ride the wave with him, and when it stops, he goes down to the bottom 6 or waived to Bakersfield.
Ty Rattie has cooled off as the season went on, and Zack Kassian has the same problem as Lucic – he still has a penchant for hitting but has lost his scoring touch.
Anyway, James Neal has been a consistent sniper his entire career – in fact, for 9 of the last ten seasons he has scored 20 goals – and in 1 each of those seasons he cracked the 30 goals and 40 goal mark respectively.
He’s played with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin already in Pittsburgh, which means there’s a good chance he can play with Connor Mcdavid.
In theory, at least this should jumpstart his numbers.
Imagine the 1st line of Nuge-Mcdavid-Neal. That would be a thing of beauty and very dangerous to the opposition.
That would leave Puljujarvi and Yamamoto to battle it out for the other top 6 RW spot, which would only be good for the team.
The Oilers don’t have a consistent scorer they can count on for the long-term right now, and that’s precisely what Neal would bring to the table.
Neal is in the 1st year of a five year free agent contract and is struggling with Calgary – so much so that this would be the 1st year in a long time he doesn’t crack the 20 goal mark and would barely crack the ten goal mark.
We could elevate Jujhar Khaira to the 3rd line where he belongs
Khaira broke out last season and was one of the few bright spots in a season in which so much went wrong with the Oilers.
But this season because Lucic has been so bad we have to stick him at 3rd line LW which bumps Khaira down to the 4th.
That would change if Lucic were gone.
And now here’s what wouldn’t change or change very little for both teams:
1. Cap hit and contract length
Both players are signed for this season and the next 4 – Lucic for $6 million and Neal for $5.75.
If the Oilers have to retain 250K of Lucic’s salary to even it out, I highly doubt that would be an issue as that’s very negligible in today’s NHL.
These numbers courtesy of Cap friendly: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/flames https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/oilers
2. Ages are similar
Neal is 31 and Lucic is 30. Both are of the very same age, and neither’s struggles are due to skill declines that come with age as players that are 35+ come with. If it works, historically it should work for both players with maybe the exception of the last year of the contract for Neal – at which case you could easily stuff him in the AHL or waive him without much of a concern for roster management as it would be in a contract year.
Here’s why the trade works for the Flames:
1. The GM gets to get out from under the embarrassment of an expensive free agency miss
Hey, at least with the Lucic signing Peter Chiarelli got one solid season out of Lucic before he started struggling so badly.
Brad Treliving didn’t even get that out of Neal. Ouch. That’s embarrassing and a huge black mark on his resume if he could at least get a guy who could benefit from a change of scenery that would at least show the prospect of getting better. Right now he doesn’t have that.
2. Neal and Lucic would both take up the same roster spot on the Flames, creating minimal roster disruption for the team.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/calgary-flames/line-combinations/
James Neal is currently playing 3rd line LW right now with Calgary, and Lucic would take the same position with them.
3. Calgary has a history of liking – and employing – power forwards
Theoren Fleury Brett Hull Jarome Iginla and to a lesser degree Joe Nieuwendyk.
The Flames love these players – and if they could get Lucic going again, they’d have the distinction of having a great 1-2 punch on the left side with Matthew Tkachuk as the other teammate. Maybe Lucic could even leapfrog Tkachuk if he can prove he can still get back to scoring form. Wouldn’t that be grand for Calgary?
The X-Factors
There’s a couple of X-factors at play here. Let’s look at them now:
1. Lucic has an NMC
Ahh the old NM and NT clauses. They help to entice players in free agency but can be a terrible burden if the player struggles.
This means Lucic himself would have to OK the trade, but honestly, it wouldn’t be too hard to convince him IMO as there are many cases in which both the player and the team have benefited from one of the players exodusing under the guise of a change of scenery.
Ask Erik Karlsson how that’s working for him this season in San Jose. That would be an excellent example for management to bring up in talking to him about it.
2. The Oilers lose the nuclear deterrent of Lucic
Lucic in an Oilers uniform is one of the reasons not too many players take liberties with Mcdavid or any of the other great players on this team. They would lose the name in Lucic, but there’s still Khaira or Kassian who can do that – and both are excellent and willing fighters.
Also, when was the last time we saw Lucic fight? Has he even been in a fight this year? I think he was in 3 all of last season and looks to go down on even that mark this year.
With the NHL cracking down on lousy violence this diminishes with each passing season.
3. Trading within your own division
Trading between Calgary and Edmonton doesn’t happen often, but it has happened. Most recently, Steve Staios was traded to Calgary in exchange for a journeyman d-man and a pick, and Ladislav Smid was traded to the Flames in exchange for a couple of prospects, most notably Laurent Broissoit.
Both moves were addition by subtraction for the Oilers, who got tired of dealing with the overaged and overpriced Staios and the injury-plagued Smid.
Anyway, there is past precedent – and it’s unlikely both clubs could find fits with the same numbers and ages that could benefit from a change of scenery.
Could it happen?
You never know. Anything goes in the NHL where we have been surprised before. It indeed is a good fit for both teams, although it won’t be for a while yet as both teams likely want Lucic and Neal to see if they can get going again without having to trade them.
If either guy gets going again with their current clubs, there’s no way this trade happens.
Keep an eye out for it later on in the season, though.