Edmonton Oilers: Looking at Darnell Nurse’s Next Contract
For the Edmonton Oilers and Darnell Nurse, both parties will be looking for a deal that will keep the defenceman for the long haul. Can a deal be made?
Edmonton Oilers: After signing Benning and Cagguila to extensions, our two most prominent non-signed RFA’s are Darnell Nurse and Ryan Strome. My last article went into detail about Strome, and today I’m doing something similar with Nurse.
Darnell Nurse is our highest profile, a free agent, this summer and his extension is vital to team success. The AAV and term will dictate what Edmonton can do this summer in free agency and the trade market.
Nurse’s Attributes
Darnell Nurse, to me, is Edmonton’s most important player and a prospect (besides McDavid of course). As of right now, Oscar Klefbom is our #1 Dman, and with all the trade rumors surrounding him, I believe this will quickly change. If a trade does indeed happen, Edmonton will need a new #1 left-handed defenceman to take over. I firmly believe that man will be Nurse.
Nurse, to me, represents the Edmonton Oilers’ most talented Dman. He possesses a wide range of skills and a lot of untapped potentials. He is an absolute beast in the defensive zone crushing opponents with bone-rattling hits, and he possesses a killer shot. Seeing his progress last season, I firmly believe he will continue to grow next season in a big way.
His analytic stats back up the proverbial “eye test”exceptionally well. Using Hockey reference, we see Nurse boasts both excellent Fenwick rating and Corsi for percentage, 52.4 and 50.9 respectively. He did this while starting 51.1% of his shifts in the defensive zone.
Comparable Players
Regarding what Darnell Nurse’s newest contract will be, I believe it’s valuable to look at some similar players. Jacob Trouba was resigned by the Winnipeg Jets in the summer of 2016 to a two-year 6 million dollar extension. I believe this is roughly what Darnell Nurse would earn on a bridge deal.
In Trouba’s contract year, he posted six goals and 15 assists in 81 games. Nurse posted similar numbers scoring six goals and 20 assists in 82 games last season. Trouba also posted identical possession numbers to Nurse. He finished his 15-16 season with a 51.3% Corsi for rating and a 51.9 Fenwick rating, according to Hockey Reference.
Jacob Slavin is another player that is a lot like Darnell Nurse. He’s a big-bodied defenceman that plays a similar style game to Darnell Nurse. He also shows very well regarding possession. In 16/17 he had a 52.8% Corsi for percentage and a 52.5% Fenwick rating. It shows how active a defender he is and is once again brought to you by Hockey Reference.
2017 was the year Slavin signed a significant seven-year extension that pays him 5.3 million dollars annually. When Slavin signed that contract, he was coming off a season where he scored five goals and 29 assists. It is in the ballpark of where Nurse is as a player.
Wrap up
If we’re looking for a ballpark of what Nurse’s newest contract will be, there are good examples around the league. Two of the players I decided to use today are the closest comparisons in my opinion. In a bridge Nurse will probably be at a 3-3.5 million AAV for roughly 2-3 years. In a long-term situation, we’re looking at a 5-7 year at an AAV of 5-5.5 million.
Other moves this off-season will dictate whether we bridge Nurse or sign him long-term. Signing Nurse to a long-term deal currently would be very difficult. This is because we have a lot of money tied up in Russell and Sekera.
If Edmonton unloads one or both players I can see a long-term deal being signed. However, The most likely scenario is a bridge deal.