With Tyson Barrie off the trade market, the Edmonton Oilers are running out of right-handed defenseman options, and with the draft almost here, they are running out of time to make a move that involves the fourth-overall pick.
Now, the team is rumored to be interested in Zach Bogosian, the big, right-handed Buffalo Sabres defenseman. The Cult of Hockey reported on the news this morning, discussing the Oilers possible interest in the 25-year-old RHD.
"“The former No. 3 overall pick has significant trade value. A source said the Edmonton Oilers have shown interest since last season. Bogosian is fast, physical and has the ability to produce points.” – Matthew Coller, WGR 550 Sports Radio"
When discussing Bogosian as a potential target, it is easy to see why the Oilers would want someone like him. He is a 6-foot-3, 219 pound defender who has the ability to throw his weight around, as well as produce points.
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Bogosian finished with 24 points (7 G, 17 A) this past season, and through 478 career NHL games, Bogosian has 158 points (47 G, 111 A). He is able to move the puck and create scoring chances. He is fast, still young and has the potential as a second-pairing defender.
Is it worth it for the Edmonton Oilers?
Well… hmm… we need to look at some things first. Many of the Oilers desired RHD targets are off the market (Tyson Barrie, Travis Hamonic, Justin Faulk and P.K. Subban), and now, they need to make some decisions.
However, there are still plenty of RHD targets left, both over the trade adn free agent markets. I’ve trimmed it down to the following list: Sami Vatanen, Jason Demers, Kevin Shattenkirk, Bogosian and Mark Pysyk. I’ve taken it upon myself to compare them in differnet areas.
First, let’s look at Corsi, the most important possession metric in my opinion. With Corsi, if the percentage is over 50, then that means that the team controls the puck more often than not when that certain player is over the ice. Here is the compared Corsi for percentage among each of these players.
Bogosian and Pysyk aren't the Oilers' best bets; here's compared Corsi for % among all rumored Oilers RHD targets. pic.twitter.com/V6lefbcE6o
— Sammi Silber 🏒 (@sammisilber) June 17, 2016
As you can see, compared to Vatanen, Demers and Shattenkirk, Bogosian and Pysyk sit below 50 percent and are nowhere near those numbers. Bogosian may be a big, physical defender with offensive, but his Corsi has declined over his years in the NHL and he is not good at keeping the puck in his possession. Same can be said to Pysyk, but he still has less experience than Bogosian and is improving.
However, one of the biggest needs for Edmonton is getting a right-handed defenseman who can move the puck and create scoring opportunities, as well as contribute to point production. I also took the points per 60 and compared them there.
When it comes to points per 60, the Oilers would get the most out of Shattenkirk or Vatanen. pic.twitter.com/SlZaTKh923
— Sammi Silber 🏒 (@sammisilber) June 17, 2016
When it comes to points per 60, Vatanen and Shattenkirk are the players to go after. Even Demers struggles in that category and is not able to quarterback a power play or contribute to offense the way that they can. Bogosian and Pysyk also trail in this category, which is concerning, considering the proposed trade is the Oilers fourth for Buffalo’s eighth-overall pick and Bogosian (or Pysyk).
Bogosian is decent when it comes to physicality and defensive play. He had 86 hits and 98 shot blocks this past season and has proven ability on the backend. Shattenkirk and Vatanen both possessed better numbers when it becomes to shot blocking this year, but overall, Bogosian performed better than Pysyk and even Demers.
Based on all this data, I would suspect the Peter Chiarelli don’t show too much interest in Bogosian. Compared to other RHD options available, Bogosian is not as good and doesn’t have the potential to fill the needs that Edmonton has.
They would be better off with someone like Shattenkirk or Vatanen, and if they are offering the pick and other pieces, Chiarelli should offer a bigger gift for the large price he’s paying.
Bob Stauffer did point out that he guesses the Oilers aren’t interested, but I can’t imagine there haven’t been talks or thoughts from Chiarelli’s front.