Regardless of where you stand on Edmonton Oilers winger Taylor Hall, his underlying analytics are some of the best in the league. Hall is the metaphorical tide that raises all boats in terms of on-ice possession numbers. This fact brings up the question: How do the Oilers defensemen perform when playing with Taylor Hall, and when playing apart?
To answer this question I consulted stats.hockeyanalysis.com, and looked at Hall’s 5-on-5 score and zone-start adjusted statistics. Score adjustment, factors in the phenomena known as “score effects” which you can read more about here. Zone starts refer to the ratio of shifts, that start in the offensive zone.
In order to increase the sample size, the past two seasons were included. By extrapolating only the necessary data, I arrived at this chart:
for full chart see here.
The first, and perhaps most important thing to note from this chart is that Hall was a positive possession player by corsi, when apart from each defenseman, meaning that no one D-man was inflating his overall possession numbers.
Looking at the defense, starting from the top, Mark Fayne, and Justin Schultz played the most 5-on-5 minutes with Taylor Hall over the past two seasons and posted solid possession metrics with Hall. The struggles for these players shine through when not on the ice with Hall. Fayne in particular sees his Corsi percentage drop over 5.5% and the Oilers as a team are outscored almost 2:1 (At 5-on-5 when the score is close).
Peter Chiarelli traded Schultz out of the organization at the trade deadline this past year, and based off these numbers might be wise to look into trading away Mark Fayne. Sorry Lowetide.
The player that shines brightest by this chart is undoubtably Andrej Sekera. Sekera actually had slightly better possession without Hall (it is important to note that this table does include his time in Carolina and L.A last year), but in either case was above breakeven. That is a marquee of a legit top-4 defenseman. Sekera was overall a good signing by the Oilers and they would be wise to keep him around next year.
The two young blue chippers, Darnell Nurse, and Griffin Reinhart, both showed some red flags in their NHL time. Both players hovered around 50% corsi with Taylor Hall, but both cratered when playing without Hall. What is particularly worrisome about Nurse is that even when playing with Hall, the Oilers are significantly outscored when he is on the ice.
At least one of Nurse and Reinhart, if not both, should start in the AHL next year. Rushing these players does nothing but damage to their development, and the chart above clearly shows that both of the, struggle. Nevertheless both players are high-end prospects that should have bright futures if brought along patiently.
I truly believe that if not for injuries, Nurse would have ideally played a full AHL season. With any luck next year the Oilers will not have the same injury problems, and Nurse can play either sheltered NHL minutes or top pairing AHL minutes.
Moving to players who are likely leaving the organization this summer, Andrew Ference and Nikita Nikitin, both appeared passable when playing with Hall. Ference without Hall however is a possession black hole and even when with Hall is consistently out scored.
It was visibly apparent when watching Ference over the past two seasons that he struggles mightily these days with advancing the puck out of his own zone. It makes sense therefore that only when playing with one of the games truly elite players at advancing the puck up ice, does Ference resemble an NHL calibre defenseman. Ference was a great leader and is likely an even greater person, but in 2016, no longer serves a purpose on-ice for the Oilers.
Nikitin surprised me with how well he showed, even when apart from Hall, but as he is at best the fourth best left shot option and struggles with his foot speed. He will not be resigned by the Oilers.
Eric Gryba and Adam Clendening, are both players whose numbers above are skewed by the fact that they played for other teams in the sample time frame. Clendening, as an Oiler, did little to prove himself as a NHL player, most of his positive numbers came as a member of stronger organizations.
Due to the lack of depth on right defense in the Oilers system and the fact that Clendening is still only 23 years old, I would not be opposed to bringing him back to start in the AHL next year. Bakersfield was sorely lacking right shots on the blue line this year and Clendening can certainly help at that level. At the same age Davidson was still an AHL player. There is still hope for this guy.
Gryba on the other hand had the best possession year of his career (although it is difficult to post solid possession numbers on Ottawa if you’re not playing with Karlsson), and his right shot is certainly valuable for the Oilers. Overall his numbers are respectable enough, and he doesn’t completely crater when without Hall, and as such I would be comfortable with the Oilers having him play a 3rd pairing role next season.
Next up is Jordan Oesterle, who impressed many towards the end of the season with his skating and passing ability. Prior to adjustment, Oesterle is roughly an even possession player, and as curious as his small sample with Taylor Hall is, this season must undoubtably be considered a success for Oesterle. Regardless however, Oesterle should still start the next season in the AHL, and possibly be another mid-season call-up.
Saving my personal favourites for last, Oscar Klefbom, and Brandon Davidson both show well on this chart. Although both players look better in their pre-adjustment possession metrics, there are still positives in the adjusted metrics. With Hall, Klefbom is dominant, as one would expect for a player as dynamic as Klefbom, who can efficiently move the puck up the ice.
Davidson actually shows better without Hall, and posted only modest possession numbers, but in his first full NHL season endeared himself to fans and proved that he was an NHL caliber defenseman. Davidson might have actually helped contribute to a positive trend in the Oilers possession uncovered by Sunil Agnihotri of Copper and Blue.
Next: Edmonton Oilers Prospect Ethan Bear on the Rise
To wrap all this up, based of my analysis I’ve created a possible depth chart for the Oilers blue line next season.
Klefbom – New Addition
Sekera – New Addition
Davidson – Gryba
Nurse – Clendening
Reinhart – Oesterle
Depending on who the new additions are, this could be a significantly improved back-end next year, and the first time that the Oilers have had depth in years.