The Edmonton Oilers may or may not ultimately trade for Brent Seabrook. But in the absence of any fact on that front, fans in Oil Country are nonetheless going hard at debating the player’s attributes and shortcomings. And most of those debates come down to two things: Term, and Cost.
The concern over term I get. It has been extensively researched and proven that, for every freak of nature such as Chris Chelios or Nicklas Lidstrom, there are hundreds of NHL defencemen (good, average and bad) who hit their best-before date by their mid-30’s. A number of factors may play into this phenomena. How fast were they to begin with? Are they smart enough to compensate for eroding foot-speed? Has injury slowed them? Has the game changed contrary to a player’s specific skills, etc. There is no shame in this, and only a chosen few defy the odds.
As such, Brent Seabrook is a player that any General Manager should consider carefully, when it comes to how much term to give him. At 30, and with 1-year remaining in his existing contract, he will be 31 before any new deal kicks in. Will he be in his prime, at the front end of the contract? Well, judging by his past record, and excluding any unforeseen circumstances, yes. Brent Seabrook would be a terrific acquisition for almost any NHL team, let along the defensively challenged Edmonton Oilers. But by the end of a 7 year deal. History teaches us…not.
So, I understand where people are coming from when they begin to fret over how long of a contract Seabrook should be offered. Based on a huge, reliable sample of NHL D-men, Seabrook “probably” has 3-4 years of “prime” left, after his existing deal expires. After 35, though, all bets are off, and any good year you get from him past that has to be considered “gravy”. Would it be a risk to sign the guy to a 7-year deal? Sure, to the extent that the last two years of any contract could really work against you, cap-wise.
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Where people lose me, though, is when they start to get bent out of shape over what kind of money a General Manager such as Peter Chiarelli may offer him. The most common figure I see thrown out there is $7,000,000. And more often than not, I see people react with the words “Well, that’s too rich for my blood”, or “No player should make that amount of money”. Seriously, I do not get that.
The first thing that most of those people are not considering is the cost to the Edmonton Oilers franchise by NOT spending that amount of money on a #1 D-man, of which Brent Seabrook is one, maybe not top-tier like Duncan Keith or Drew Doughty, but he IS in the top 2-dozen D-man in the NHL. That is something The Edmonton Oilers lack. We’ve all watched the post Chris Pronger Oilers since 2006. How is that working out for you?
The second thing to ask those detractors is: What do YOU care how much money Seabrook would cost the Oilers? The team is not spending to the cap, and even of they were, it is not impossible to create space (hello, the Chicago Black Hawks, ironically, are GREAT at this) for the right player. And what does this team need more urgently, today and for years to come? A #1 D-man. A Brent Seabrook.
Am I o.k. with paying Brent Seabrook more than Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle? Yes. Why? Because players like Seabrook are harder to find. They are a rare breed. When a team DOES have one of them, it tends to hang onto that asset at all costs. So when a player such a Seabrook does become available? It is incumbent upon a team such as the Edmonton Oilers to do all that is reasonable to acquire him.
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On one hand, over-pay for said asset. 8 million over 5 years? Sure, why not? If it ever becomes a problem to pay your top-end, most valuable talent, then your organization has more pressing issues in other areas, because you will not win without them. Show me a team that has.
But with the Taylor Hall contract being what it is, the clock is effectively ticking on how much time Peter Chiarelli has to take full advantage of the collection of assets he has inherited. As a result, I personally don’t worry much at all about over-paying a Brent Seabrook 6 or 7 years from now.
Because if my team has won a Stanley Cup by then, it will have been money well spent. An investment, versus a cost. Simple as that.