Edmonton Oilers Better, Does Not Just Feel Like It
It “feels like” the Edmonton Oilers are a better hockey team, these days.
Certainly, the team’s record since Todd Nelson took over (solo) behind the bench is improved. And if all that ultimately matters in the NHL is winning, then you should feel better about your team. But a number of people have pointed out that the Edmonton Oilers have regressed in terms of shot metrics, and insinuated that these “better” results can’t last.
So…which is right?
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If you read my column on a regular basis, it will not come as a surprise to you that I am not a “numbers guy”. By that, I mean that I do not base my columns on metrics, Corsi and the like. It’s a mild distrust that I have in the field of “probability”, probably borne from watching Jeff Reardon pitch for the Montreal Expos back in the 80’s.
I always winced when the Expos brought in the likes of Bob McClure for the sake of the “Lefty-Lefty” match-up. I winced every time McClure spun that slower-than-dirt slider at Dave Parker, hoping that The Cobra would not launch it through that ugly orange roof and plunk it into St. Lawrence River. For the love of god, just put in Reardon. Save my raw nerves.
Metrics do not directly measure the effects several factors integral in the outcome of a games. I say “directly”, because it’s unfair to just dismiss the tremendous amount of work put into game histories and probabilities. Of course things like shots, the quantity of chances, quality of competition and the like are clues.
Plus, the best “numbers guys” that I follow in this game, such as Bruce McCurdy, David Staples and Alan Mitchell, do a solid job of interpreting what they see and read, and inject much-needed art into a science all too often absent of “control” in a variable world. Some of these variables are very real.
For instance, these numbers do not directly measure the effects of a player who is “feeling it”, which is another way of saying “confidence”: almost certainly the most important but nearly impossible to quantify or qualify factor in the life of a professional athlete. You often win with it, frequently lose without it.
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The numbers also fail to accurately measure “trust”. I think that we would agree that TOI, even when broken down by zone starts, by 5×5, with or without leads, is not necessarily an indication of trust between coach and player. A player could also be right in the middle, either “gaining trust” or “bleeding it”.
Finally, the numbers do not accurately or consistently measure “fun”. You may wonder what the hell something as frivolous as “fun” has to do with anything in the National Hockey League? Well, for most athletes, “fun” is the reason they started to play, and that passion never really goes away. Just ask them.
That’s 3 things. Three essential ingredients in the baking of a winning cake. 3 things that Todd Nelson has brought to this out-of-balance, out-of-synch, out-of-chances-at-a-playoff-spot-yet-again collection of players.
They are things that have made the Edmonton Oilers “better”. Riding Ben Scrivens instilled confidence. Dressing Benoit Pouliot after that spear showed Trust. Calling Nail Yakupov’s number in a shoot-out injected fun back into his game.
Science did not make those players better. Probability, especially in such small samples, did not predict it. But Todd Nelson’s gut, his instinct, that “feeling inside” spidey-sense, did.
Whether or not the Nelson-effect can be sustained remains to be seen. But in the meantime, Edmonton Oilers fans, yes. They are…“better”. My eyes say so.