The Decision Facing the Edmonton Oilers
By KURT LEAVINS
You get the feeling we’re all gathered around, waiting for a white puff of smoke to curl from the Edmonton Oilers offices over at Kingsway?
The decision to sift through the organization in an effort to determine what has led the team to its current state was made long before the Oilers lost 3-2 in overtime in Winnipeg. In fact, I have it on good authority that those meetings had already begun by that time. But it surely has steeled the resolve of the Cardinals to elect a new Pope.
So…where do we go from here?
There are a few major options, and many smaller moving parts surrounding each of them, some commonly shared, some not,and most of which I won’t get into today:
The first principle that the organization should observe, however, is that it is dangerous to change anything significant, until such time as you have enough information to make a sound decision. Because until that time, you can’t know with adequate confidence that by changing it…you are making it better. The business world is littered with companies that thought they were doing the right thing, only to discover that what they thought and how their customers felt were two very different things.
So the first thing the Oilers should NOT do, until they have sufficient data to support what their instincts are telling them, is panic. So, an 11-game winless streak isn’t “sufficient data”? No, it’s not. It only tells you something is broken. It does not tell you what is broken. Having determined that, however, what might they then do next?
Well, they might fire the coach. However, I don’t believe Dallas Eakins’ job is in immediate danger. The more time I spend analyzing his time here, the more I believe he inherited some significant flaws which he does not have the direct power to change. In short…while Eakins has made mistakes, they haven’t been the fatal ones. Eakins has not lost the room. He stays.
They might fire Craig MacTavish. But I doubt it. Firing the architect almost certainly would mean drawing up fresh blueprints. 9 years in, I doubt this organization would delude itself into thinking the fan base would put up another 3-4 lean years. No, I think they’ll opt for a renovation, in which the G.M. will keep many of the materials he already owns.
They may make a big trade. But there are precious few trades to be had right now that would be difference makers. Why? Partly because there are too many big holes to fill, all at once. But more to the point, the Oilers are in a very weak position right now to get fair value for their assets. They should wait, at least until sometime between the trading deadline and the draft.
They might fire Kevin Lowe. Well, they’d never fire him, the organization would find a more elegant exit for him. And you know, I’d be o.k. with that. Mr. Lowe had a significant role in bringing glory to this city, in the 80’s, and while he may be incompetent, he’s not a criminal. So his firing is possible…but not likely.
For those who would shout that Kevin Lowe is the only thing consistent, over the extent of this drought, I would correct you: What has not received a complete over-haul is the amateur and professional scouting staff. And while that may well be Lowe’s fault, he does not need to leave for that to change.
Look at the club’s draft record, past the first round. It’s dismal, and has been that way for a long time. Good teams build organizational depth by finding a few nuggets from Round 2 on. But if you have to constantly trade for it, you deplete valuable assets in other areas.
The team also hasn’t fared well in roster transactions in almost a decade. The David Perron trade is a rare exception for the Oilers. Yes, that can be on the G.M. But G.M.’s also lean heavily on pro scouts for talent evaluation. And in that area, the organization has been miserable.
Do you need to act on scouting in December? Well, no, but would you sooner enter the Spring trading season and the draft with the same scouts that got you into this mess in the first place? I thought not.
But combine weak pro scouts with a weak G.M. for several years (yes, we’re talking about you, Steve Tambellini), and you get what the Oilers have today.
A mess. Mr. Katz? Cleanup on isle 4, please.