Oilers organization’s Critical Mass reached. A breakdown of all goals against so far.

Oil Country has reached critical mass and is about to implode. Both fans and team are at the edge, staring into the abyss. Make no mistake, the defeat at the hands of the coyotes created a black hole of epic, historic proportions. MacTavish and crew are now the proud owners of the tie for worst season start in Edmonton Oilers history. Even worse, there is every chance they take sole possession of the dubious distinction tonight against the greasy Canucks. Dark days for the Oil drop indeed.

Given recent events I have come to believe that today is going to be the defining moment of the Edmonton Oilers season. Under different circumstances a 0-3-1 start would not be such cause for panic. In fact just a couple of days ago I was cautioning everyone not to jump to rash conclusions with only 3 games in the books. But then everything changed. The catalyst was not the loss, but how they lost.

Today most of us who follow the misfortunes of the orange and blue are left pondering what went wrong. The answer might seem straightforward at first, but once you plunge into the chaos, it is so murky in there that I am not really sure we’ll ever find out exactly what happened here. The knee jerk reaction is to say Eakins is a terrible coach and the main reason for all that ails the Oilers. And of course there is always the Fire Lowe crowd. Whereas I have been in the why is Eakins here camp since the day the hiring was announced, I reckon the man is far from being the only culprit, and I think even with his perceived ineptitude, should other fronts had held the line, even Eakins’ short comings would have been mitigated somewhat.

Today I want to look closer to all the goals against and see what the common elements are. Since I cannot use screen captures I apologize in advance for the crappy paint-generated diagrams you are about to endure. All data will be from even strength (EV) play, since the power play has been decent (27.3% good for 8^th in the league) and even though the penalty kill hasn’t been the best (68.8%, 25th league wide), it is at evens where the team is getting destroyed. The team has 15 goals against at EV bad for a tie in last place. They have 6 goals EV good for 20^th in the league. That’s a ratio of .4 or 2.5 goals against for every goal the Oilers score. Keep in mind though the game against LA really skewed all numbers because it was such an atypical game.

So, grab a drink and some popcorn, because this is going to be a long post. Stats taken from www.nhl.com

Game 1. Home. Edmonton VS Calgary. Final Score: 2-5. Goalie: Scrivens

Goal no. 1

• Calgary dumps and chases.
• Scrivens goes on an adventure to try to stop the puck behind the net, he fails and the puck goes back up to Calgary for a long-range shot.
• Schultz very lax on his coverage, allowing a deflection at the crease mouth.
• The team was well set up defensively; I blame this one on Scrivens and Schultz.

Goal no. 2

• Another dump and chase from Calgary.
• Another Scrivens adventure.
• Nikitin looks lost on the opposite side of the play.
• Forwards fail to read the play and stay by the blue line, leaving the middle lane completely vacant.
• This one was part Scrivens poor adventure planning, part Nikitin forgetting how to hockey, and part system failure because the forwards seemed confident they were in the right spots.

Goal no. 3

• Outlet pass by the flames, gaining zone entry.
• Ference with very soft coverage.
• Weak goal by Scrivens.
• Poor goaltending and weak individual defensive play let this one in.

Goal no. 4

• Anti-assist by Yakupov from his own zone to neutral ice.
• Fayne waits for his man at the blue line but gets caught standing still and is blown over.
• Pouliot attempts to catch up but doesn’t make it in time letting the shooter put one in uncontested.
• You can argue either way about Scrivens chances on stopping that shot but the main problem here was Yakupov’s giveaway and Fayne’s pylon impersonation.

The other goal was a pp goal and that is a whole other animal, so, as I mentioned earlier, those are staying out of this post. My infinite wisdom tells me the following:

• Poor goaltending on 3 goals.
• Ference, Schultz, Nikitin and Fayne all made poor decisions on at least 1 goal.
• Yakupov made one bad decision on 1 goal.
• There seemed to be a system failure on two goals.
• This game was lost because of poor individual performances and lack of familiarity and understanding of the defensive systems Eakins is using. Team paid for a bad use of the last games of training camp.

Game 2. Road. Vancouver VS Edmonton. Final Score: 5-4 Shootout loss. Goalie: Fasth

Goal no. 1

• Vancouver gains zone entry.
• Oilers unable to break the cycle despite good positioning.
• All 5 Oilers get sucked up below the hash marks.
• Arcobello abandons his man on the left side of the crease to chase a man on the right faceoff circle in what looked like an attempt to switch assignments with Ference.
• The above action forces Petry, who is standing on the top of the crease, to remain as a pylon because there is one canuck behind the net and another one about three feet in front, both alone.
• Ference misreads Arcobello’s intentions and allows the Sedins to switch with each other, leaving one of them as the lone guy Petry sees behind the net.
• The pass goes to this guy and now both Petry and Ference are playing traffic cones while the Sedin twin taps it in right while standing right next to the post all by his lonesome.
• Again you can argue whether Fasth could have done more about that but the circumstances leading to the goal seem to have been a system failure, given how many players made bad decisions. It looked like everyone was trying to remember too many instructions at once.

Goal no. 2

• Petry fails to clear his zone when a Canuck catches the puck and makes a hand pass.
• The puck then quickly moves to the slot where Ference is just a dancing pole next to his man allowing a deflection.
• This one was poor coverage by Ference.

The other goals were 2 pp goals on a much undisciplined game and the other goal was chalked up to the shootout winner.

My power of hindsight reveals the following:

• Ference had a bad game and might have been the difference, penalties aside.
• The whole team looked confused on the d zone coverage, either they are getting too complicated instruction or they don’t fully trust the system. Again, lack of preparation preseason bubbled up here.

Game 3. Road. LA VS Edmonton. Final Score: 6-1. Goalie: Fasth for less than one period, Scrivens the rest of the way.

Goal no. 1

• Kings gain zone entry
• Nurse, Draisaitl and Yakupov (why are all 3 on the ice at the same time Eakins? why?) all get sucked up to the left side behind the net where a lonely king holds them off.
• Another king skates by them, takes the puck and circles behind the net and drops a pass to a pincher who shoots and scores uncontested in front of the crease.
• At the same time Schultz is patiently waiting at the side of the crease while a king begins to move from the blue line to the right faceoff circle.
• While this is happening Pouliot for some reason stopped in front of said pincher by the blue line and allowed the guy to gain a couple of steps on him, leaving the guy alone to shoot. Schultz in the meantime thinks it’s a good time to see what being a tree feels like and just stand where he was between pincher and passer but not making any one uncomfortable.
• This one went in because the rookies rooked, Pouliot had a brain cramp, and Schultz just didn’t feel like stepping in.

Goal no. 2

• Kings gain zone entry.
• Joensuu loses a race with his man allowing a 2 on 1 to develop.
• That one is Ference who hesitates and doesn’t commit either way, ending up with a weak stick check attempt on the goal shot. He also failed to see Joensuu actually caught up with his man before the puck was shot, negating a pass. Ference should have taken the shooter.
• The goalie may or may not have been able to do more on the shot. It was a powerful and well placed shot because it was an uncontested shot from a prime shooting area.
• The main culprit here is Ference because Joensuu actually corrected his mistake at the last moment.

Goal no. 3

• Shorthanded goal against. I include this one because it was an issue last season and because this happens when the Oilers have 5 men on the ice.
• The oilers get caught in the offensive zone, allowing a breakaway 2 on two.
• Yakupov hustles back and takes position (correctly) on the top of the crease, while Hunt gets confused and instead of tracking his man stops and tries to reach with his stick in a rather comical sequence, allowing for an uncontested shot that maybe the goalie should have stopped.
• This goal was part Hunt’s bad decision and part bad goaltending.

Goal no. 4

• Shot from the point, puck recovered by Hall on the boards.
• Hall, Arco, and Nurse Vs 1 king. King holds them off and gets the puck to a mate who is alone on the side of the net
• At the same time there is another king sandwiched between Purcell behind and Schultz in front, all 3 men in front of the crease.
• Schultz neither takes the passer hard nor stays covering the man behind him throwing a lazy stick check at the king by the side of the net.
• Purcell gets outmuscled, since he is covering from behind, and the king gets an easy tap in on the quick pass. Tough read for the goalie, who has to guard against both passer trying to make a move at the net and the potential pass.
• This goal was a combination of bad positioning by Nurse and Arcobello and lazy play by Schultz. The bad positioning again seems to be a result of not understanding their assignments.

Goal no. 5

• Defensive zone face off lost. Kings dump and chase.
• Scrivens the explorer goes on another adventure, unsurprisingly causing a turnover.
• Nikitin forgets how to hockey and lets a king skates past him to recover the puck 5 feet away from the net.
• Draisaitl fails to cover the gap allowing for an uncontested shot and an easy goal.
• This goal is a product of poor goaltending and bad positioning of the supporting cast.

There was one pp goal on this one. Let’s see, of the 5 EV goals:

• 1 goal was bad goaltending, another one was suspect.
• Schultz was lazy on 2.
• Ference was eaten on a 2 on 1
• Hunt was dazed and confused on 1 goal
• The rookies showed their green on at least 2 goals.
• Bad hurt on to 2 goals.

Game 4. Road. Arizona VS Edmonton. Final Score: 7-4. Goalie: Scrivens

Goal no. 1

• Dump and chase.
• Scrivens grabs his backpack again. Turnover.
• Draisaitl and Nurse decide they rather learn by watching than by moving and let a coyote come all by his lonesome in front of the net with Scrivens out of position and trying to move one of the rooks out of his way for the easy pass from behind the net and the even easier shot in.
• Again, why are Nurse and Draisaitl out on the same shift? I think someone needs to attach an anvil to Scrivens so he stays in the bloody crease.

Goal no. 2

• Coyotes gain a quick zone entry with a 3-2 man advantage because:
• Eberle fails to read the play and does his best Gagner impersonation going for an ill-advised change leaving a trailer on the far side all alone for an uncontested shot that honestly Scrivens should have stopped.
• This was a case of a player not paying attention and a goalie not putting much resistance.

Goal no. 3

• Oilers dump but don’t chase
• Coyotes quickly recover and gain zone entry.
• Schultz joins the Scrivens thrill seekers club and leaves the crease, then throws a lazy stick check to pretend he was defending.
• Boyd Gordon, in a rare brain cramp, reacts too slowly to the developing play and even though he is in a good position he fails to cover the intended target who is all alone to deflect a shot.
• This one is mostly on Schultz; he was a disinterested as he could be.

Goal no. 4

• Coyotes recover the puck at their own blue line and quickly send a pass to gain zone entry.
• Petry misreads the play and drops to the slot instead of sticking with his man who is pinching to the middle of the ice.
• Said man gets the pass from the puck carrier on the right side taking a semi-uncontested shot and Scrivens lets the puck squeak past him.
• This goal was both on Petry and Scrivens. The first one for not covering his man and instead waiting for him to shoot and the second one for being so weak on stopping the shot.

Goal no. 5

• Yakupov charges hard out of his own blue line but forgets the puck at the feet of a coyote.
• The other oilers are way out of position already moving towards the neutral ice.
• A 2 on one develops with the one being Nurse.
• Scrivens does manage the save but doesn’t corral the rebound.
• The puck trickles to the front of the net where the only man back is a coyote who gets an easy tap in.
• Nurse took himself out of the play by sliding on one knee trying to block the initial shot.
• This one started because Yakupov instead of moving towards the middle of the ice tried to pass the coyote at the blue line via osmosis. The Scrivens was unable to avoid the rebound, and no one moved in to support the play, everyone was just watching and skating leisurely.

Goal no. 6

• Empty net. I had to put this one in because it was pretty stupid.
• Schultz walks the puck to center ice, stops, then gives a 6 inch tape to tape pass to a coyote, who leisurely skates towards his hat trick.
• Schultz is playing like he just doesn’t’ care anymore.

What happened on this game? What I saw was:

• Horrible goaltending;
• Schultz give-a-damn meter almost at zero;
• The rookies rooking hard and;
• The coach not handling his personnel effectively.

So what can we learn from this tedious goal breakdown? What I saw was:

• Justin Schultz is playing bad, and looking too casual out there. Motivation is nowhere to be found with this guy now.
• Ben Scrivens needs to decide whether he wants to be Go Diego Go or an NHL goalie. Cannot have both unfortunately.
• Ference is also playing bad, although that seems to be more of a case of lack of playing time in preseason. Ditto for Nikitin.
• Hunt is slow and short, not a good combination.
• The rookies have been getting progressively worse. Draisaitl is 4 games in and just 1 point, while he has been directly involved in at least 4 goals against. Nurse has the size, the will and the skill, but he still needs to think the game better.
• The oilers are bad at covering the rectangle between the net and the hash marks.
• The coaching staff has been sending the wrong personnel on several occasions and are not icing their most competitive lineups. Proof of it is Marincin down at the farm, Petry being scratched and Schultz getting so much ice time when he has been the worst defender on the team. David Perron and Nail Yakupov have a -5 now, but as you can see, they are underserving of it, especially Perron.
• The coaching staff failed its players by not practicing systems and line combos and d pairings on the last few games of the preseason. It has now come back to haunt them.

• The wingers have for the most part done a good to great job except for the occasional wth moment.
• Of the two goalies, Fasth has been clearly superior but now he is hurt and it might be long term.
• The defence is in disarray but it is not because of the lack of capable hombres, but rather because of the poor usage by the coaches. Take a look:

Eakins seems to be going with people he “trusts” when things go south. How is it possible that Mark Fayne is the player with the least amount of ice time, when he was brought in to be a part of the top shutdown pair? Brad Hunt and Ference ahead of Jeff Petry is just bananas based on what we saw in the goals breakdown. Same goes for Justin Schultz playing almost 20 minutes a game on EV. He is supposed to be the number one offensive d man on the team, so maybe it makes sense that he has played so much because the team has been trying to score goals to catch up and win games, but Mark Fayne has one goal and one more point with the least ice time, so that plan is not really working out. MacTavish assembled this d corps for a reason, I think it is time they are used the way they were meant to.

• As for the pivots, well it has been a mixed bag, but I think they are actually one of the lesser problems in this debacle.

Nuge is still weak on the dot, and Draisaitl and Arcobello are close to break even. Based on ice time their deployment is as expected and Gordon and Arcobello have been doing a fine job at their roles. Draisaitl however has been full value for his -4.

• The rookies. Neither Nurse nor Draisaitl are difference makers right now, and they have struggled. MacTavish needs to ask himself what is better for Edmonton both right now and in the future. I believe the rookies are better served going back to junior. In the case of Nurse, he can be easily replaced with the current personnel back at the farm. It is more difficult with Draisaitl because one is hard pressed to find someone to fully replace him from within.

• Finally, the coach needs to be better. He has been given everything he has asked for, and his roster is the best roster I have seen since 2010. First and foremost he needs to make better use of his bodies and make sure he is sending the right men for the job at the right times. There is some evidence to suggest their defensive schemes are a tad too complicated for this group. What I mean is that almost 25% of the roster is new and they just started playing together on the first game of the season. I think it is time to step back and throw some basic plans until everyone is up to speed. I want to believe this is where Craig Ramsay’s experience pays off.

Many say the true measure of a man is shown not during the good times, but during the trying times. Well these times are as trying as they can be for the Edmonton Oilers. The critical mass having been reached, it will be interesting to see if they succumb to panic and fear, if they stay the course, or if they make the necessary corrections. This team will either implode under the weight of its own doubts and past failures or put itself together and thread water during this upcoming 7 game home stand. One thing is certain; the fans won’t give them quarter this time.