Edmonton Oilers: Expectations Vs Reality

Oct 11, 2014; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Edmonton Oilers head coach Dallas Eakins reacts during the third period against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena. The Vancouver Canucks won 5-4 in overtime shoot out. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Well that escalated quickly. Poor Edmonton Oilers. It now only takes one loss for jerseys to fly and 2 losses for everyone to lose their cool. But that is what happens in a hockey crazed town still living off the memories of glories past. The Kings dropped their first of the season 0-4 and no one was suggesting Daryl Sutter should get the boot or Drew Doughty should get traded. But they are the current Stanley Cup champions, so no one is going to start second guessing them any time soon.

If there was a thing made clear this weekend in Edmonton it was that fans’ expectations and the reality on the ice are in two very different realms of existence. Both sides of the coin, those defending the team and those scorching it, are making use of ever more ridiculous arguments. From bloggers trying to break out statistical trends with a 2 game sample size to the poor drunk (I hope he was drunk, otherwise what a moron) who threw his Oilers jacket on the ice with his cel phone in it in what I imagine was a moment of unbearable pain as he felt his soul being yank from the depths of his heart by the omnipresent evil shadow of another loss.

Maybe it is time to adjust expectations and get closer to reality. For starters, 2 games worth of data make any analysis statistically irrelevant. I understand some people live off posting articles of this nature, but that doesn’t make it right. It is all noise and nonsense. Wait at least, at least until the team has three games under their belt before breaking out the Corsi and the scoring chances.

Next, this team has not been a .500 team since the 2008-2009 season when they grabbed close to 52% of points available (85). Their peak since  was 74 points (.451) in 2011-2012. Just getting 82 points this season would be a massive leap forward for the Oilers. The cut off line for making the playoffs has been consistently at around 91 points since at least the 2006 Stanley cup run, so even making it to .500 still leaves them with quite a few ways to go before they can make it to the fabled second season.

The opening night roster lineup this year featured 2 rookies and 4 new veterans plus a guy with less than 50 NHL games  and those 4 new veterans are set to take on important roles,  they’re not just depth players. That’s about a quarter of the roster turned over. For comparison, the Kings’ lineup on opening night had only one new guy, one. There has been a lot of talk regarding continuity on the coaching staff, but I think it is just as important to have a core of teammates who have played together long enough to know their strengths and weaknesses so the expectations for each other are not off.  It is telling that the d men who have struggled more in these two games are new acquisitions Fayne and Nikitin.

On the subject of continuity, it is good that Dallas Eakins is back with Keith Acton because incumbent players don’t have to learn new systems, except that there are 2 new additions to the coaching staff, and that is going to take some time to factor in. Just as players need to learn each others’ habits, the new coaches need to know the players and the direction bosses Eakins and MacTavish want this team to go.  Dallas didn’t do himself any favors when he decided to waste the last games of pre season instead of running d pairings and line combos that will play through the season. I reckon some players were injured, but still most of the roster was ready to go. Chalk another one on the “things I learned this year” column for Eakins.

Finally, this team has a history of making poor choices regarding asset management. As much as I cheered for Yakimov and wanted him to make the team out of camp, I don’t understand the roster decisions announced today for the Kings’ game. Eakins is about to face the current champions and he decides to counter with 2 raw rookies as replacements for his injured staff and makes Petry the patsy who has to take one for the team in order for Nurse to get his guts handed to him on a road game. I don’t care much for Petry, I think he is unreliable, but there is no denying he is a bona fide NHL defenceman. That’s why when I try to find the logic behind these moves, things gets even crazier. If the argument for bringing Yakimov instead of Lander against the heavy Kings is one for need of size, then why is Brad Hunt not sitting instead of Petry?. If the coach is trying to send a message to the veterans that they need to play better or else, then why not sit Nikitin who has been struggling more than Petry?, or even Ference, yes he is the captain but he should know his play has been sub par. If  Dallas Eakins is throwing 2 rookies to the baddest wolves in the forest on their own turf, there is clearly no sense of urgency on his part to start putting W’s in the calendar.

The media keeps saying that this year the Edmonton Oilers motto should be “no excuses”, but this is not about excuses, this is about the reality the team is in. So, again, my advice to fellow Edmonton Oilers’ fans is to keep your expectations low and don’t turn your back to the reality of the team so you don’t end up feeling like you have been cheated on, because there’s still 80 more games to go and I don’t want to have to start a support group that meets every week around the Gretzky statue.