Has Mark Fistric Been Lucky or Good? (Advanced Stats Update)
February 9, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Edmonton Oilers goalie Nikolai Khabibulin (35) makes a save on a shot by Detroit Red Wings center Cory Emmerton (25) as Edmonton defenseman Justin Schultz (19) defends in the first period at Joe Louis Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
With the Oilers having played 16 games, their season is now one-third complete. We all know the Oilers’ leaders in the major stat categories (goals, assists, plus/minus, etc.), but who are the leaders in the advanced stats? Below are the Oilers’ advanced stats leaders (based on a minimum of 5 games played.)
Surprisingly, Mark Fistric leads the Oilers in 3 advanced stats categories. Does this mean he’s been one of the Oilers best players? No. If you interpret the stats properly, you’ll see that he’s been more lucky than good.
PDO
PDO was invented by Brian King (aka PDO). This stat is “the sum of a player’s on-ice save percentage and on-ice shooting percentage. PDO is an excellent way to measure ‘puck luck’ or good fortune as it regresses heavily to the mean of 100 (sometimes shown as 1000). For example, a player with a PDO of 103.4 is likely to see his puck luck drop next year, affecting his plus-minus or point totals. A player with a PDO of 97.1 will likely have a ‘bounceback’ year purely by getting a few more bounces go his way” (Hockey Prospectus).
PDO = even strength save percentage + even strength shooting percentage
1. Mark Fistric – 1038
2. Eric Belanger – 1035
3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 999
4. Ales Hemsky – 998
5. Taylor Hall – 996
The PDO numbers for the entire team are here.
Corsi
Corsi is “a statistic originally invented by Jim Corsi, who was the goaltender coach for the Buffalo Sabres. Corsi is essentially a plus-minus statistic that measures shot attempts. A player receives a plus for any shot attempt (on net, missed, or blocked) that his team directs at the opponent’s net, and a minus for any shot attempt against his own net. A proxy for possession” (Hockey Prospectus).
Corsi = shot attempts for – shot attempts against
1. Jordan Eberle – 13.23
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 12.64
3. Taylor Hall – 9.62
4. Nick Schultz – -3.29
5. Justin Schultz – -3.93
The Corsi numbers for the entire team are here.
Relative Corsi
Relative Corsi is “a player’s Corsi value in comparison to his teammates. Relative Corsi is expressed as the player’s Corsi minus the team Corsi rate. A positive value indicates a player who is better than the team average and a negative number is a plyer who is worse than the team average” (Hockey Prospectus).
Relative Corsi = player Corsi – team Corsi
1. Jordan Eberle – 31.2
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 30.1
3. Taylor Hall – 25.6
4. Teemu Hartikainen – -0.1
5. Nail Yakupov – -0.9
The Relative Corsi numbers for the entire team are here.
Relative Plus/Minus
Unlike the traditional Plus/Minus stat, Relative Plus/Minus measures a player’s Plus/Minus relative to his team.
Relative Plus/Minus = plus/minus on/60 + plus/minus off/60
1. Mark Fistric – 3.25
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 2.52
3. Taylor Hall – 2.33
4. Eric Belanger – 1.98
5. Jordan Eberle – 1.12
The Relative Plus/Minus numbers for the entire team are here.
Quality of Competition
Qual Comp is the average Relative Plus/Minus of opposing players faced by a player. “In a general sense, first line players have the best [relative plus/minus], so players who play against the first line should see the highest opponent rating” (Arctic Ice Hockey).
1. Shawn Horcoff – 0.221
2. Ben Eager – 0.154
3. Lennart Petrell – 0.143
4. Ryan Smyth – 0.142
5. Ladislav Smid – 0.122
The Qual Comp numbers for the entire team are here.
Quality of Teammates
Qual Team is the average Relative Plus/Minus of on-ice teammates.
1. Jordan Eberle – 0.891
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 0.622
3. Taylor Hall – 0.612
4. Nick Schultz – 0.314
5. Jeff Petry – 0.270
The Qual Team numbers for the entire team are here.
Offensive Zone Start Percentage
Offensive Zone Start Percentage is the percentage of even strength face-offs taken in the offensive zone while a player is on the ice.
Offensive Zone Start % = offensive zone starts / (offensive zone starts + defensive zone starts)
1. Taylor Hall – 58.6%
2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 57.6%
3. Jordan Eberle – 57.4%
4. Nail Yakupov – 56.7%
5. Justin Schultz – 51.3%
The Offensive Zone Start Percentage numbers for the entire team are here.
Penalty Plus/Minus
Penalty Plus/Minus tells us which players are best at drawing penalties without taking penalties themselves.
Penalty Plus/Minus = penalties drawn/60 – penalties taken/60
1. Mark Fistric – 2.3
2. Jordan Eberle – 0.6
3. Taylor Hall – 0.5
3. Corey Potter – 0.5
5. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – 0.3
The Penalty Plus/Minus for the entire team are here.