Oil On Whyte’s Official Guide To Picking First Round Winners – Western Conference Edition
*Disclaimer: Go on and bet your dollars, ducats, trinkets and mementos. OilOnWhyte.com nor Fansided.com LLC, its members, writers or affiliates can or will be held liable if you end up sleeping outside of Sherbrooke Liquor under a newspaper after a first round flame-out. Bet with your head, not over it. With that being said, if you are victorious, just remember who gave you sound financial advice. I’ve got a paypal, y’know. Got it?
Welcome to the first round of the playoffs. Yes, it’s true, the Oilers won’t be there for them for a sixth consecutive year, but try to wash that memory out of your mind until at least Tuesday when we huddle around the warm glow of the televisions to witness another chapter in “the rebuild”.
It’s time for the first round. Under the guise of our expert analysis, picking winners should be a snap.
Today, we focus on the Western Conference match-ups. What’s behind the curtain?
VANCOUVER (1) vs. LOS ANGELES (8)
Not going to make any friends on this pick. Vancouver isn’t one of my favourite teams in the world, it’s true, but I have a hard time picking against them versus a team that struggled score goals in the midpoint of the season. As much as it’s possible to see Roberto Luongo blow a tire and yield a seven goal performance, I’m just not sold that it’ll happen so early in the playoffs. The Kings are going to rely heavily on Vezina candidate Jonathan Quick, who finished the season with ten shutouts and a sparkling .929 SV%, but Vancouver (as we know) has three solid lines that they can just roll. Add two healthy Sedin twins to the mix and an average to good Luongo, and I’ve got a tough time picking against Vancouver in round 1.
WHY THERE COULD BE AN UPSET:
Like last year’s Stanley Cup Finals, if physical play can get under the skin of Vancouver and the Kings can score a quick couple of goals, things could get turned upside down quickly for the Canucks. Goaltender Roberto Luongo has shown that if he allows a couple of softies early on that his night can take a wrong turn in a hurry. I’ll allow for one bad game in this series, but I don’t think it’s enough to turn the tide.
Vancouver over LA, 6 games.
ST LOUIS (2) vs. SAN JOSE (7)
The St. Louis Blues are really real this year. By that, I mean that you can see that they’re leading the Central over teams like Detroit and Chicago. If this season’s a fluke, it’s a pretty convincing one. The Blues have eight (8) players that have scored 30 points or more, and the goaltending tandem of Brian Elliott (9 shutouts, .940 SV%) and Jaroslav Halak (6 shutouts, .926 SV%) has been as hot as any in the league. This year is San Jose’s first in five to not win the Pacific Division, but they’re still getting offence from sources you’d think. What’s keeping San Jose from winning this series? I’m not sold on Antti Niemi being able to take this club through this series, and I haven’t seen enough of Thomas Griess to think he’s any more able. Niemi finished with a .915 SV% and six bagels, but St. Louis has thrown up 35 or 40 shots a number of occasions this year. Gotta go with the Blues in this one.
WHY THERE COULD BE AN UPSET:
Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture and Patrick Marleau all had more than 60 points in scoring this year. The Sharks will need to rely heavily on all four of these players in order to disrupt St. Louis’ seamless goaltending. If the Sharks can split in St. Louis, they have reason to believe they can take the next two in San Jose, having finished with a home record of 26-12-3 this season. Goaltender Antti Niemi will have to pull several rabbits out of several chapeaus in this series. Niemi was the man between the pipes for Chicago’s Cup in 2010, but ‘pedigree’ will only get you so far, am I right?
St. Louis over San Jose in five games.
Shake your money makers and head over to the next page for Phoenix/Chicago and Nashville /Detroit
PHOENIX (3) vs. CHICAGO (6)
I’m picking the Phoenix Coyotes to win their first playoff series since they were the Winnipeg Jets (version 1) in 1987.
Winners of the Pacific Division with 97 points, the Coyotes (like the Blues) have a balanced attack on offence with eight players at 30 or more points on the season. Ageless Ray Whitney (39) led the Coyotes with 77 points, while Radim Vrbata had 35 goals alone. Like the Blues, the Coyotes have more than solid goaltending in Mike Smith, who this year had a career high season with .930 SV% and 8 shutouts in 67 contests. If I’m a Coyotes fan, I feel pretty confident heading into this one with my defence. Keith Yandle can play for the Oilers any day of the week. He can bring Ekman-Larsson with him too. The Blackhawks have their usual artillery of firepower that comes with superstars Marian Hossa, (77 points) Patrick Kane (ze hockey player?!?, 66 points) and Patrick Sharp (69 points), and are well able to do battle on defence with proven players in Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook. I’m a little concerned about my 5-6 on defence if I’m Chicago, and the roller coaster that’s been the goaltending all season.
WHY THERE COULD BE AN UPSET:
The Chicago Blackhawks, man.
Can Jonathan Toews make a triumphant return after missing over 20 games with a concussion? Toews is a huge cog in Chicago’s offence, but he’s missed 23 straight games leading up to now. Phoenix’s Mike Smith has played in a big fat zero NHL playoff games, so expect some pressure there. If Chicago can exploit Smith early in this series, the scales could tip the way of the Blackhawks. Corey Crawford is going to have to play the series of his life, well over his season .903 SV%. Can he?
Phoenix over Chicago in six games.
NASHVILLE (4) vs. DETROIT (5)
1989-90 was the last year the Detroit Red Wings failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Since then, they’ve won four Stanley Cups, made the finals six times, and have had a pretty strong showing over the past twenty years. The Red Wings are no strangers to firepower on offence; they’ve got ten players with 30 or more points. Led by Henrik Zetterberg (69 points), Pavel Datsyuk (67 points) and Valtteri Filppula (66 points), the Wings are never short on goals. Nick Lidstrom is still holding down the Red Wings’ blue line, and there’s plenty of support with guys like Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart and Jakub Kindl. It’s going to be hard to bet against this year’s Predators, however. Also equipped with ten players with 30 or more points, Nashville has plenty of firepower of their own. I’m finding it hard not to take Nashville’s stodgy defence over Detroit’s offence. You all know about Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, but first rounder Ryan Ellis is starting to make his mark. Add guys like Kevin Klein and Francis Bouillon to round out, and it’s a more than capable six on the blue.
I like Pekka Rinne in the net quite a bit more than Detroit’s Jimmy Howard, but I’m convinced that Detroit’s weapons on offence are going to be too much for Nashville to handle.
WHY NASHVILLE COULD WIN
This is a tough series to pick. Nashville’s got a fantastic defence, and if they can keep Detroit’s big guns to the outside, it could be a short series for the Wings. If Pekka Rinne can do the unthinkable and put the bagel up in the first game, it surely will wear on the minds of the Wings. It’s not probable, but it’s possible that Lidstrom and Company could be a half step slower than Nashville’s forward set. Rinne will have to play at least at his regular season SV% of .923, and likely a little bit better.
Detroit in seven games.
So there’s your West. Stay tuned, your East predictions will soon follow.
Now let’s go make some dollars.
Follow Oil On Whyte on the Twitters.
Jeff – @OilOnWhyte
Grant- @RealOilFan
Samson – @threwittki
Ian – @ibleedoil
Become a fan on our Facebook page too!
Click Here to visit our NHL main page “Too Many Men” – Fansided’s Hockey Home on the Internets
