Jordan Eberle a whopping 15 points in 8 GP vs CHI. Looks like Khabibulin starts (15-9-1, 3 SHO vs CHI).

— Jack Michaels (@EdmontonJack) February 25, 2013

Which caused me to raise an eyebrow, and I probably would have raised both had I been fully awake at the time. Has Devan Dubnyk had a little bit a rough go in the past couple of games? Yes. Has Khabibulin played above expectations? Absolutely, and therein lies the rub: we’re into our fourth year of watching Khabibulin play, we’ve got a pretty good idea of what to expect from him, and it’s not pretty. If you honestly believe Khabibulin can sustain a .942 save percentage and 1.89 GAA, I’ve got some nice oceanfront property in Red Deer you might be interested in.

The worrisome part is that even with a better save percentage and a GAA that’s almost one full goal per game lower than Dubnyk’s, the end result has been the exact same for the Oilers: .500 hockey. At this point you have to look at likely scenarios. First of all, the Oilers aren’t likely to remain snake-bitten in terms of 5 vs 5 goalscoring, it’s not like years past when they couldn’t sustain any offensive zone pressure, or could barely muster up 14-15 shots a game on a regular basis. The term “regression to the mean” has become one of infamy among anyone who follows the Oilogosphere, but regression isn’t necessarily negative, it just points that unsustainable trends (like Jordan Eberle’s shooting percentage from last year, or the Oilers absolutely dreadful 5 vs 5 shooting percentage this year) aren’t likely to continue long-term.

At some point, the Oilers should be getting some more run support for their goalies to work with, which leads to a discussion on who do you start? Rewind to last year, where Dubnyk struggled early on, and Khabibulin posted some incredible numbers early on in the year, which led with him getting handed the bulk of the work for the regular season. What happened in the second half of last year? Well, an old goaltender posting up unsustainable numbers blew up, and the team plummeted back down the standings to finish 29th. We all know what’s eventually going to happen if 35 keeps getting the nod, in fact I’d say it’s more inevitable that the eventual heat death of the universe.

So that leaves us with Dubnyk, who we’re still getting a read on in terms of if he can be a reliable starter in the league. Outside of some rough patches this year (1st periods against San Jose, Colorado) he’s been solid, but not in the “posting ridiculous” numbers kind of way. I think it’s a safer bet to assume that he can bounce back, and bring a few more wins in that Khabibulin would. (Though if this team can’t start putting up another couple of goals per game on a consistent basis, it’s not going to matter who we start in net.

Of course, it might be premature to suggest the Oilers are looking at handing the the starter reins to Khabibulin, just because they’re starting him against Chicago, I’ve seen people suggest that the Oilers might be doing one of two things, or possibly both. Either, figuring this game to be an unlikely win for the Oilers, they’re giving Dubnyk the night off, or they’re trying to showcase Nik for a trade. I think both of these are rather foolish, and here’s my reasoning on why. First of all, I know Chicago is currently the hottest, and arguably best team in the league right now, but you can’t go into any game expecting to lose, especially on a crucial nine-game road trip. Chicago is good, but they’ve still only got Ray Emery and Corey Crawford for goalies, and you’re not telling me that either of these goalies are bonafide elite talent in net. Much like I doubt Khabibulin can keep his numbers up, please tell me if you think Crawford keeps a GAA that’s nearly a full goal off his career average, and save percentage .030 above his career. Eventually that’s going to come down, why can’t the Oilers be the first to start chipping that down. You can almost hear the mainsteam media salivate at the narratives they could generate if the Oilers handed the Blackhawks their first regulation loss tonight.

Second of all, Nik Khabibulin has been around a really long time. I remember seeing him play at Rexall when it was still just known as the Coliseum, he was playing for the Jets. I was 12. What I’m saying is, other teams know exactly what they’re going to get for the guy. It’s not like they’re looking at Oiler games and going “Who is this Khab- Kahabibi… enigmatic Russian goalie the Oilers are playing?”

So, you know, show some confidence in the young goalie you’ve signed to a new contract, show him you believe that he can win you any game versus any team you play against, because I don’t know about you, but I’d rather see Dubnyk as the starting goaltender, than someone starring in local TV commercials.

Though those commercials beat the hell of out anything Telus or BP’s has put out in the past couple of years.

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#Oilers have placed goaltender Yann Danis on waivers for the purpose of assignment to the AHL’s #OKCBarons

— Edmonton Oilers (@EdmontonOilers) January 29, 2013

Goaltender Yann Danis is headed back to the Oklahoma City Barons, which means that Nikolai Khabibulin is ready to be inserted on the bench as the backup to Devan Dubnyk.

Khabibulin has been on injured reserve since the season began.

I’m a little bit worried about all of this.

We haven’t seen too much of Yann Danis, really.  We’ve seen Yann Danis once this season, and that was last Tuesday’s relief effort in the Sharks game.

I think I’d rather the team waive Khabibulin and keep Danis.  I doubt the team would do that, because it wouldn’t look good on Steve Tambellini if a near $4M cap hit ended up on the farm team.  So,  Yann Danis gets the demotion.  I don’t like it.

54 POINTS OR BUST

It’s not an exact science, but 54 points is a pretty good number to have at the end of April.  54 points likely puts the Oilers in the playoffs.  If Dubnyk plays 80% of the team’s games, that’s about 38 or 39 games (Can he play 90%?).  I’m not sure if they’ll run Dubnyk that much.  I can only hope if this team is serious about making the playoffs, they run him at least that much.

If Dubnyk plays 38 games to Khabibulin’s 10, Dubnyk will have to nail down at least 22 wins (or any combination of 44 points). That’s a tall order, but it will almost be necessary if the Oilers are going to push for a playoff spot. (22-14-2?) That will leave Khabibulin to secure five wins (or any combination of ten points) in ten games.

I’m not sure that’s completely doable.  I’m a little worked up if the Oilers allow 38 shots (like they did last night) when Khabibulin’s in net.

With Danis getting shipped back to OKC, I’d expect Khabibulin to get the start in either Phoenix on Wednesday or San Jose on Thursday.

Let’s hope he’s got some October 2011 running around in him, a month that saw him go 5-0-2 and post a ridiculous .960 SV%.

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