Edmonton Oilers: Who to Protect in the 2017 Expansion Draft
Throughout this summer and into the season, the Edmonton Oilers aren’t the only team that needs to worry about roster moves, trades and signings. In 2017, the new Las Vegas team will be selecting 30 players, one from each existing NHL franchise, to form a team that will compete as part of the Pacific Division in the Western Conference.
The NHL has determined that teams will be allowed to protect either seven forwards, three defencemen and a goaltender (Option A), or they can protect eight skaters and their one goaltender (Option B). While it will be interesting to see who each team protects, it appears obvious, based on the moves the Oilers have made so far this summer, that the latter option is the only viable one.
Painting Yourself Into a Corner
On paper, it would make the most sense for a team to protect as many players as they can, but for the Oilers, it’s more about quality than quantity. Over the course of two summers, Edmonton has signed two free agents (Andrej Sekera and Milan Lucic) that require protection under the guidelines of the expansion draft.
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Sekera and Lucic have active “No Movement Clauses” in their long-term deals, meaning they both must be protected. This leaves six skaters left. Logically, three of those six should be defenders. Under Option A, there would only be room for two defenders.
Defense
The defensive selections seem to be the most obvious based on addition by subtraction. Essentially, many of the choices have already been made thanks to the Oilers’ moves of late.
As previously mentioned, Sekera requires protection based on his no-move clause. What could have been a difficult decision is no longer left in the hands of the Oilers, having been made on their behalf when he signed as a free agent.
Sekera is an effective defender and easily a top-four man, but is also the type of blueliner that may have been on the bubble. His $5.5 million cap hit over the next five seasons could have made him an expendable asset, especially if the Oilers continue to make improvements on their defense over the summer. Regardless, Sekera is here to stay.
Next comes Adam Larsson, who the Oilers just paid a hefty price for by giving the Devils Taylor Hall. Larsson is projected to be a top-pair, shut-down defender, and will likely live up to his expectations.
Larsson should warrant protection based on talent and his cap hit alone, but talented or not, it would take a disaster of gigantic proportions to tell the Oilers they made such a grandiose mistake they’d be willing to let Larsson go after only one season for literally nothing. Like Sekera, it’s obvious that Larsson isn’t going anywhere. At least not yet.
Since Darnell Nurse is automatically protected thanks to the exceptions made in his entry-level deal, Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson would be the two Oilers defenders worth noting. Since Edmonton can only save one of these blueliners under Option A, Klefbom should get the nod.
The Catch
General Manager Peter Chiarelli and the Oilers haven’t been shy about their desire to land a power-play offensive defenseman. If the Oilers are successful, it stands to reason that Edmonton protects whichever player they ultimately land on.
Doing so now leaves Klefbom exposed under option A, and it could be argued that both Klefbom and Davidson are worth protecting, but at the very least, Edmonton shouldn’t risk losing their only prospective top-pairing defenseman in Klefbom.
If a new power-play defender is added, only by taking Option B is Klefbom not at risk.
Instead of adding another long-term defenseman, Edmonton could look for a short-term solution when it comes to the man advantage. Adding a one-year deal allows for more flexibility and in this scenario, the core of Sekera, Larsson, Davidson, Klefbom and Nurse would all be one year more experienced and safe from the expansion draft.
Offense
The Oilers offense, thanks to Option B, leaves a couple talented roster spots available to Las Vegas. Again, the “No Movement” clause given to Milan Lucic, means one protected roster spot is spoken for. The other choices appear obvious.
Like Nurse, McDavid isn’t in danger thanks to the ELC, so Edmonton will likely protect Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. This leaves Benoit Pouliot, Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu and Nail Yakupov exposed.
The Most Likely Outcome
While an outside long-shot goes to Patrick Maroon, odds are that Benoit Pouliot gets drafted by the NHL’s newest team. His cap hit isn’t horrendous, and he’s a talented top-six forward. His underlying numbers are also a plus.
The good news for the Oilers seems to be that players such as Pouliot find themselves looking for work in the offseason. They are frequently available in free agency and while there may not be another player that fits the Pouliot-mold to a tee, a top-six left-wing isn’t too hard to replace, especially when the Oilers are stacked on the left side.
While it would be sad to see Pouliot go, it would not completely impact the Oilers, let alone leave them without a key player on the roster.
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There’s more good news. While Edmonton is leaving more than one talented forward exposed, Las Vegas will be forced to choose only one player from each team. Even if they lose Pouliot, Edmonton should be able to walk away from the NHL Expansion Draft relatively unharmed. That said; if a player like Yakupov has a 30-goal season; or Edmonton adds another top-notch defenseman this summer, all bets could be off.