Edmonton Oilers: The Curious Case of Mark Fayne

At first, Mark Fayne was an important signing for the Edmonton Oilers. At the time, all the arrows pointed to Fayne being an elite shutdown defenseman coming to the Oilers organization at a reasonable cap-hit. Previously for New Jersey Fayne was, along with Andy Greene, one half of one of the most analytically strong D-pairings in the entire NHL.

Looking at the stats, for the two seasons before Fayne became an Oiler, adjusting for Zone starts and score effects, the Fayne/Greene pairing posted a Corsi For percentage (CF%) of 59.5! When separated, Fayne looked slighty more human, yet still no slouch with a CF% of 54.2.

The summer of 2014 was around the time that I began to take an interest in hockey analytics, and the Fayne-signing was largely considered a win for the Oilers organization and an embracing of the use of Analytics.

Nearly two years later, and Oilers fans are wondering what went wrong.

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In his first season with the Oilers, Fayne saw his possession metrics crater, dropping in both CF% and Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) by nearly a full 10%.

The following season saw a modest rebound (it would be hard to do much worse), with Fayne being neither a possession driver nor possession hinderance relative to his teammates.

Outside of Lowetide’s continual support, most fans have long given up on Fayne as a player, several suggesting him and his $3.625 Million cap-hit, be bought out by Peter Chiarelli and Co.

Recently, Mo Sarda (@WheatNOil) dug into Controlled Zone Entries for the Cult of Hockey, which on a per 60 basis, painted Fayne as clearly the worst puck-moving defenseman to play regular minutes for the Oilers this past season.

Things are not looking too great for Fayne as an Oiler. He was even waived at one point this season and sent to Bakersfield, from where he made a quick return. The question still rises as to what circumstances explain the severe drop off in performance from Fayne between his time with the Devils and the Oilers? One possible explanation could be his defense partners.

Although there is little evidence suggesting the Andy Greene was propping up Fayne singlehandedly, it is still important to consider that Greene is a vastly under appreciated NHL defenseman. In Fayne’s first season with the Oilers, their best defenseman was another right shot, Jeff Petry. Likely due to the fact that they both play on the right side, Fayne spent almost no time with Petry in 5-on-5 situations, and as this was before Sekera, Davidson, and Nurse became regular Oilers, Fayne was not exactly playing with All-stars.

Fayne’s most common partner that season was Martin Marincin , however this still only accounted for roughly a third of Fayne’s 5on5 minutes. Fayne largely bounced around in his first year, not getting the benefit of generating chemistry with a consistent partner.

It is impossible to say with certainty whether Fayne struggled due to changing partners, or if Todd McLellan moved him around the lineup due to his struggles. That being said there is some evidence suggesting that once given some consistency, Fayne formed a strong pairing with Andrej Sekera this year.

Sunil Agnihotri performed a thorough in-depth analysis of this pairing, depicting tha the Fayne/Sekera pairing had a positive impact on both possession and expected goals against.

Although evidence suggests that Fayne has yet to replicate the success he had in New Jersey in Edmonton, he may have found a contributing role in the Oilers top-six. He is still a defenseman who is shy offensively, partially explained by his minimal power play time (Less than four minutes this past season), however he is at least a serviceable NHLer.

Next: Edmonton Oilers: Klefbom is the Oilers' Top Defenseman

To borrow from Lowetide, the Oilers are unlikely to acquire three better right shot defensemen this off-season. He is not a top-pairing guy, as was suggested at the time of acquisition, but alongside Sekera, can form a dependable second pairing.

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