The Flawed Tanking Plans of Edmonton Oilers Fans

To those seriously wanting the Edmonton Oilers to tank, but who then in the next breath whine about a losing culture in this organization, I say: Congratulations, you are part of the problem.

No one can be happy about how this season, or the 8 seasons previous, has/have gone. We all want the teams we cheer for to be competitive and, more often than not, win. And there’s no argument that the Oilers have failed at both, since the 2006 run.

But I take issue with those that bemoan the club playing better now, in January, and actually putting up a few points in the standings. These are the people who would like nothing better than for the Oilers to lose, so that we can add Connor McDavid to the roster.

And, by the way, I don’t mean those who promote tanking with tongue firmly planted in cheek. I’m not humorless.

No, I’m talking about the people who really mean it. Their argument is so flawed in so many significant ways.

First of all, there seems to be some assumption that Connor McDavid would fix the Oilers in a year. Keep in mind that even in Sidney Crosby’s first year, the Penguins did not make the playoffs. They lost in the first round the next season. And saying that Connor McDavid will be Sidney Crosby is a big assumption.

Second, there is the assumption that finishing 30th is some sort of iron-clad guarantee. No, it’s not. Yes, your odds of winning the lottery are better, but any non-playoff team has a shot at McDavid in the 2015 draft. To tank based on those percentages is an expensive gamble. Sure, it’s a deep draft, but only one, or perhaps two, of these players are considered “generational” talents.

Third, there is the financial impact of losing. The Edmonton Oilers, Wednesday, sent their annual Season Ticket Survey out. They are asking how much of an appetite you have for a ticket price increase and how likely your renewal is. I can tell you, as a season ticket holder, that Rexall Place has not been full, the concession lines not as long, the Oilers Store not as busy. Jersey sales are down, etc, etc.

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Fourth, there is the real factor of how much harder losing makes it for Craig MacTavish to improve the hockey team. It is way harder and much more expensive to attract quality free agents to a team that is at the bottom of the league. And for trying to acquire players via trade, geography is not the only item considered in No Trade Clauses. The longer you have been bad, the longer it takes to turn it around.

Fifth, retention. How long do you seriously think Taylor Hall wants to stay in Edmonton without playing a single Stanley Cup Playoff game? That’s not a comment on Taylor Hall, it applies to any competitor. After a while, losing wears on you. All of these draft picks, from Sam Gagner to Jordan Eberle to Hall to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to Nail Yakupov to Leon Draisaitl, are assets that depreciate in a losing atmosphere. It’s a bit like beating your dog. After a couple of slaps, the dog is never quite the same animal.

Sixth, and finally, losing is a very hard thing to stop, once you have started to. It’s momentum times 10. There is no magical switch to flip, there is no flawless formula to follow. So many things other than one year’s amateur draft factor into turning a losing franchise into a winning one. Everybody loves to talk about how the Detroit Red Wings are the “how to do it” poster boys. Ok, sure, but keep in mind that between 1970 and 1986 (so, 16 years), the Red Wings played in a grand total of 14 Stanley Cup games. Not series. Games. 14!!

So go ahead, keep cheering for the Edmonton Oilers to lose. But be very, very careful what you wish for.

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