Edmonton Oilers: A Brief History Of The Kevin Lowe Era Part 2
Last week I wrote about Kevin Lowe and the Edmonton Oilers for an article by our sister site pucksofafeather.com, Fansided’s hub for all things Anaheim Ducks. Their editor Jason Byun sent me some really good questions and I got a bit carried away with the answers. I figured I would share my thoughts with fellow Oilers fans as well. There were 3 questions, This post covers question number 2. You can read Jason’s article here. You can read the post about question number 1 here
Jason:
Despite the Oilers’ noted defensive woes, they aren’t a strong offensive club either. The Oilers have scored the fewest goals in the Western Conference, and combined with their defensive issues, the team has the worst goal differential in the Western Conference and 2nd worst in the NHL overall (ahead of the Buffalo Sabres). No player on the Oilers has 10 goals or 20 points on the season, and that is a major reason why Edmonton is last in the NHL standings. What has been the biggest reason for the Oilers’ scoring woes? Also, which players are struggling most for the Oilers in the scoring department?
My Answer:
Both guys who finished as top goal scorers last season are struggling mightily this time around. David Perron and Jordan Eberle had 28 goals, but right now they are 5 and 6 respectively, on pace for 18 and 16. Nail Yakupov is the other big issue at forward. The Russian just can’t seem to find the net unless he cheats for offense. His defensive game has improved miles, but for a guy who is ticketed as a goal scorer he is rather dry in that department. As for why these guys are struggling, well I think it is because of their defensive issues.
Despite secondary stats telling us they are close to trading goals with the opposition, their power play has been terrible, sitting at 27th overall with a 12.9% efficiency. Last year they finished the season with 17%. You can see this is an ongoing issue for Dallas Eakins. Problems with the power play include a lack of a hard shot from the point and a really poor zone entry strategy.
Their shooting percentages as a team are just putrid at 9.4 on PP and 6.6 at even strength. Their PDO at 5 on 5 is 96.8 although that can be explained more by the poor goaltending than by bad puck luck. The PDO on the PP is 81.62. But that can easily be attributed to the fact they are dead last in the league with 5 goals against allowed. But combine that PDO with their Corsi and Fenwick hovering at 50% no matter what adjustment you use (close, tied, trailing by 1 or 2) and you see why MacTavish comes out and says his team looks better and has improved even though the standings don’t show it. By those stats the Oilers should be middle of the pack right now. The statistical evidence at first glance points more at just really poor goaltending than anything else. But the lack of offensive production from key players who have demonstrated that ability makes you think there is something else going on.
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Another factor I discussed in that piece comparing the Calgary Flames defence was the offensive production by the blue line. The Oilers are getting squat in that department. They have Justin Schultz as the 57th d man overall with most goals in the NHL (2, 9 pts). For comparison Calgary has 3 guys in the top 15 and Anaheim has 2 in the top 20. This goes in hand with the lack of PP production.
My official position is that it’s the coach just losing the battles on line changes and poor handling of ice time as well as poor systems. I look at those secondary stats and all I can think of is that this team is just an outlier. I predict that these numbers will be far lower for the month of December, when all but 1 of their games are against the western conference. They only got their first win against the West against the sharks on Saturday and are 1-13-4 for the season. This month will tell everyone, including their GM who this team really is.
Note: Since these answers were sent to pucksofafeather, the Oilers have played 4 more games, all loses with a goal differential of -8(5F-13A), and were shutout once. Their power play has gone 1 goal in 9 opportunities and their goaltending has been the usual mixed bag with Viktor Fasth sporting save percentages of .940 and a .750 on his rampage night and Ben Scrivens pitching in with .792, 1.00 (in relief of Fasth) and .952.