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Oilers Stats Projections: Ales Hemsky

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Goal Projections: 14

Oil on Whyte Ruling: Under

As always, we’ll use Dobber’s fantasy projections as a starting point with Hemsky. According to the fantasy guide, he has Hemsky playing in 67 games, scoring 14 goals and ending the year with 41 points.

First, the goal projection.  Can Hemsky score 14 goals over the course of an 82-game schedule.  He has the ability to score this many times in a month let alone in an entire season.  But ability and reality are two different things and for Hemsky it again all comes back to his health.

We know Hemsky will get every opportunity to play along side Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Sam Gagner, Nail Yakupov and David Perron; at least at the start of the season.  Should the Oilers have a complete and healthy squad come November then number 83 might be slotted on the third line with Boyd Gordon and possibly Jesse Joensuu.  This will limit his scoring chances given his two linemates play an entirely different game than Hemsky which could damper his goal totals.  Keep in mind this is all contingent on Hemsky staying healthy.

If you look at last season he played in 38 games which would have calculated out to around 66 games in a full year.  Not bad but missing 16 games in a season could be detrimental to both the Oilers and Hemsky’s offensive numbers.  Injuries are a part of the game but with Hemsky it just seems that he’s out more than the average player and for that reason, coupled with the potential third line role, I don’t see him cracking the 14 goal plateau.  He will come close but 12 isn’t 14 and it’s doesn’t justify his $5 million dollar contract either.

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