Number 40 in your programs, Number 1 on your depth chart. Number $3.5M on your salary cap. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-US PRESSWIRE

How Well Will Dubnyk Have To Do In Order To Live Up To His Contract?

It’s been one whole month since Devan Dubnyk was signed to a two year, seven million dollar contract. Now that we’ve all had a chance to catch our breathing after the sticker shock, let’s figure out what Devan Dubnyk will need to do in 2012-13 in order to satisfy the base.

Devan Dubnyk is coming off a 20 win season.  If you factor that into a nice, fat percentage, 20 wins is 62.5% of Edmonton’s 32 wins in 2011-12, which isn’t too shabby a number.  Dubnyk finished the year with a .914 SV%, and while that isn’t Earth-shattering, puts him right next to Evgeni Nabokov of the Islanders and Craig Anderson of the Senators.

First, let’s see who else is making $3.5M between the pipes.

Well, Tuukka Rask for the Bruins is.  Rask is in a similar situation, although maybe a bit more into the frying pan than Devan Dubnyk is.  Please recall Bruins goaltender Tim Thomas declaring how he’ll be sitting out the 2012-13 NHL season for familial reasons.  Rask is getting thrust into the spotlight whether he likes it or not.  Rask went 11-8-3 with a .929 SV% and a 2.05 GAA in 23 games in 2011-12.  The 25 year-old Rask previously won 22 in the 2009-10 season.  Rask does have a nice SV%, but I’m also quite certain that if you plug Dubnyk on a Bruins team, he’ll probably go up a notch or two in that department.

Dallas’ Kari Lehtonen is pulling a very similar cap hit at $3.55M.  If Devan Dubnyk has the season that Kari Lehtonen had in 2011-12, I’d be quite pleased.  Lehtonen piled up a .922 SV%, good for eighth overall in the NHL.  In 59 games, Lehtonen saw victory in 32.  I’d be pleased as punch if Dubnyk was able to put up those types of numbers.  A small caveat:  backups Richard Bachman and Andrew Raycroft combined for a 10-13-1 relief effort to go with a combined .895 SV%.  You can’t say that backup goaltending can’t cost you a playoff berth.  It likely did for Dallas.

Salary and cap hit don’t  necessarily determine the worth of a goaltender.  Both Jaroslav Halak and Nikolai Khabibulin are $3.75M cap hits in 2012-13.  I don’t have to ask you which one you’d like to have in your net.

What will Dubnyk’s numbers have to look like in order for you to be happy with his deal?

I’ll shoot lofty here, I’d like to see 27 wins and a .918 SV%.  Would be absolutely thrilled with 30 and .920.  Whatever combination of goaltenders will likely have to come near 40 wins in order to think about the playoffs.

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