My Head Hurts: Trade Deadline Predictions

Sam Gagner should be here for a while. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-US PRESSWIRE

Hemsky.  Khabibulin.   Smyth.  Gagner.

Plenty of conversation between fans and media alike as to who’s going to pack their bags in two Mondays.

After the jump, I will take a completely scientific analysis as to who could be gone.

Play along in the comments section.

HEMSKY

Unfortunately, I just don’t see him moving for anything substantial.    If he goes to Detroit (or any team that could feasibly take a run to the Cup) I stand by my original prediction that it’ll be a second round pick and a prospect.  It’s not that I don’t think that Hemsky is worth $5M a season (I do), I don’t think that a team is going to give up a first round pick unless a new team thinks they can sign Hemsky long term.  Jason Gregor’s got it in his head that he’s going to fetch a first round pick in return, and he cited Dustin Penner as proof today.  While I agree that Hemsky is a better player than Penner, Penner also had a couple years remaining on his deal.  Hemsky is a rental player until I see otherwise, and I’ve no reason to think that the payment will be anything higher than a second and / or a prospect.

KHABIBULIN

There’s a chance he could be moved.  He’s got a shot at a few teams, but ultimately, I don’t think he’s going anywhere.  I put the short list at this:  Chicago.

  • Chicago is in free fall mode.  They’re 2-7-1 over their past ten, and winless in their last five.  Corey Crawford and Ray Emery have combined to yield 24 goals in their last five games, including that sweet 8-4 Edmonton victory that saw Sam Gagner score eight points.   Corey Crawford’s SV% is .898 (look familiar?), while Ray Emery’s isn’t much better at .901.  Khabibulin’s SV% is considerably better than both of those.  They’d have to move a piece (I’d hold out for a defenceman, but I’d be holding on for a while), but Khabibulin’s salary is half what he made a few years back.  Is it probable?  No, but anything’s possible.

SMYTH

Tambellini and company say that Smyth isn’t being shopped.  I’m inclined to believe him, as it was Ryan Smyth himself who wavied his no trade clause to come back to a team that’s finished 30th overall in two consecutive seasons.

GAGNER

Doubtful.  He’s only 22 and in his fifth season as a pro, but he’s coming off those monster four games where he scored 14 points.  Tambellini is also quoted today as saying he’s not trading anything that’s part of ‘the future’, and at 22 years, Gagner seems pretty futuristic.  Don’t see Gagner going unless it’s part of a blockbuster trade, and I’m not holding my breath anytime for that.

IN CONCLUSION

Eh.  Hemsky’s gone.  After that, take your dice and roll ‘em.  I’d like to see a couple of defencemen come back, but I have a feeling Hemsky is traded for prospects and a second rounder.

This is only my guess.  Grant, Samson and Ian are sure to have differing opinions.  That’s good, because if they didn’t, we’d have shrimp cocktail here a lot more, because it’s obviously the best appetizer on the planet.

Have your say:  Who goes?  Who comes back?

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Tags: Ales Hemsky Nikolai Khabibulin Ryan Smyth Sam Gagner

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